Reality Check: Israel is NOT Going to Attack Iran

 @JuliaHugoRachel1 Apologies, what I am skeptical of is an Israeli Prime MInister entering into any sort of understanding with a political candidate who is in the midst of an election against a sitting president. That's the crux of the disagreement. Not whether Israel will attack before November or whether there is such a thing as an October surprise. 

As you stated, the most recent example of an October surprise was UBL's videotape, which I think hints at the type of personality that would engage in something like that. I'm not a fan of Bibi, but he certainly does share the same strategic calculus as UBL. 

For UBL is send out an video is one thing, for the Prime MInister of Israel, that is an order of magnitude of difference. 

I concede the point, I learn pretty much everything via the internet, since I am a civilian who is frankly just extremely curious about this issue, amongst others. I try to read widely and then contemplate what simply makes sense to me. 

I certainly could be in error, would not be the first time, but crossing fingers to be correct on this issue. 

Thank you for the reply. 

 @Jaycel Adkins When I first mentioned an October Surprise to you as a possibility w/Israel pro Romeny in this election, you pretty much said  "I had a conspiracy thing going on this subject". Thats why I sent you the aritcles, to expose the fact that the OS card is just a normal political move that has been made and will be made in the future in order for political gain in a presidential election as an option for impact. Now you say you understand the October Surprise Concept, which surprises me. I hope you understand that this is not a conspiracy on my part, I am simply bringing up an eligible political chess move of sorts. This time, more in the line with "GO", our favorite game besides chess.

I do not watch TV (I threw mine out-gave it to a bum on venice beach when I was 17 years old). I don't read newspaper artices such as the ones you posted. I mostly read reports and learn by experience as in first or 2nd hand reports via person to person on subject matters, or I am there. I do read some journals. I definitely read scientific studies and reports. I also read data reports, but only from sources I value and teams I have worked with and have known in lifelong relationships. I question reports and research them for a factual perspective.

I sent you the artices just to portray a little chatter about speculation in the political world about a potential OS move for this election and because you mentioned the word conspiracy. The republicans are going to need outside influence to win, thats a well known political fact. What that influence is or when it gets revealed, is campaign strategy. If they don't get it, the liklihood of a win in 2012 is radically reduced.

In other words, I am not fond of debating what newspapers spout out. I do pay attention to classified security leaks though. I do read those articles. WSJ, NYT,Wired.....in my mind are being repaced by Blogs, military Reports and online journals in real time.

Romneys visit to Israel was well timed, well recieved and it had an incredibe impact on the people of Israel. I think it was a defining moment in history and will be written about in decades to come. We will see the results of that visit within the next 6 weeks. Just my opinion.

There is no doubt Israel will end up in War at some point. Whether they instigate it or are the defenders, their neighbors want them demolished. Their ultimate move would be, in my opinion, to strike hard, without warning, soon and timed enough to help get Romney in to support their agenda in the coming years. They would need enough justicatification to get other countries military support, unless they will fully be demolished, or incapicitated to utimate extent.

Now that the Saudis have their heart rates up, this only makes things worse. And bashar is playing into the whole picture as well. I think the only reason he hasn't used the chenmicals as of yet, is he is waiting for timing that suits his agenda. Plus, there have been well played deterant missions I suspect:-) What Bashars agenda is, is a blog of its own. I also question the role of terrorists from 3-5 groups  who are fueling conflicts surrounding Israel and they wil have influence as to how this plays out as well. Just my opinion. The clock is ticking.

 @JuliaHugoRachel1 

Apologies for the late reply, once you post in a new thread suddenly floods of emails fill your email folder, working through them.

I was aware of the idea of an October Surprise, but I just don't see it playing out as part of something calculated. Mostly because by nature I tend to be skeptical that people are able to pull things like that off. I think Bibi is rational enough to not play dice in the way, nor is Romney.

Not to say that means there won't be an attack, but rather that if there were, it would not be connected by any 'understanding' between Romney and Bibi. It's what my common sense tells me (however rational or dubious that is).

If Ehud's zone of immunity argument is valid then maybe there will be an attack.

I liked that article as well. I found it pretty well written, though I wish they could have named sources, but given the subject matter, likely not. To borrow a phrase, it was 'fair and balanced.'

To borrow yet another phrase, 'History doesn't repeat itself, but it sure does rhyme.' I think that is the point of the blog, that all these things have been said before and nothing came of it. The additional variables that exist (the election, Syria, divided Israeli leadership) make the likelihood of action less rather than more likely, I suspect.

Summing up my thoughts (for what they are worth ;)):

It could happen, not likely, and certainly not as a part of an October surprise that is meant to sway an American election.

If you find any articles in a similar vein, please post them here.

 @Jaycel Adkins That is a great and balanced article. I think it clearly shows concerns on both sides and valuable insight and information.

 Did you by any chance read the wikipedia overview I sent you on The October Surprise moves spaninh decades of presidential campains? I am NOT a fan of WIKI, but historically, I recall a few of the moves they describe. I also was surprised to learn (on a diff. subject) that UBL used an "October surprise" with Bush in October 2004 with the outing of one of his most memorable videos. MY point is that politics is ripe with this timing, which makes the situation unpredictable.

I do not think we can accurately gauge what is going to happen here. Thats under wraps, as it should be. We have good intel there may be a strike by Israel on Iran. That is solid and not so much what you see in news. Just chatter such as "emergency cell phone alerts and communication broadcasts being tested, missile movements, ship movements, army/navy movements, etc."

Its' a known fact Israel would prefer a Romney admin & we know at some point this issue will come to a head and the likelyhood of war may be inevitable. Will it happen before the 2012 elections? Will Syria  now influence this?

What I can say, is that I hope you and I don't write each other on this forum with a headline that says "as the cookie crumbles". This is a dire situation and I fear with Syria nd others of the last of the Bathe regimes in play, its ettin uglier.

The title of this blog may not be accurate. I always pray for peace.

Did You save me any dough? Killing me with the cake talk!Hungry.... Sigh.....

JHR

 @JuliaHugoRachel1 While the dough was rising:

http://www.timesofisrael.com/the-most-fateful-decision-of-all-iran-israel-air-strike-nuclear/

;)

 @Jaycel Adkins your cakes are legendary. Your moms food as well. If you knew me better, you would know why I spoke of your food! I don't eat unless I am fed. Seriously. Its a known fact. I am the worst cook EVER. I inherited the baking gene, but my pies are ugly, although they taste good. My cuz is a pastry chef.

yes, lets see what happens in October. I think the october surprise is an option. i think war is inevitable. I am sorry to say this. The whole thing is disheartening and the solutions are few and far between.

 @JuliaHugoRachel 

Being googled makes me feel warm inside, thank you. 

I gather the next several weeks will prove or disprove the grand conspiracy you envision. 

;-)

 @Jaycel AdkinsThat article you posted is from 7 days ago and in my opinion is a "posture". Israel has cried wolf, threatened war for so long, that politically it would make sense to make public statements such as this article. The tactics are solid. to posture like this would back down the threat levels and create a surprise if they did attack.

here is an article from this morning. http://rt.com/news/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-netanyahu-676/

however, the situation is tenuous because Israel knows they have to consider the following:

1)attacks against hezbollah @ Syria as well as Iran

2)The timing. Their ultimate wish is for Romney to be elected, but this is such a tenuous situation, if not timed perfectly, Obama could jump in and look like a hero.

Israeli-Palestine conflict is coming to a head. The current administration has not extended their hand to the Israelis as much as the Israelis had hoped for.

BTW...your cakes are legendary! Kudos.

 @JuliaHugoRachel http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/08/20/the_israeli_debate_on_attacking_iran_is_over

 @Jaycel Adkins I gave you THREE links, explaining factual examples of past political October surprise moves spanning back decades. Examples with explicit Country to Country examples of the political move I described that may occur. Did you not recieve and read all three? The Iran-Contra example was of particular value.

There are plenty of quotes from Netanyahu , should you wish a quote from an Israeli leader. A simple look at the news or a google search on Israeli-Iran issues will give you what you say you are lacking.

If you followed Romneys latest visit to israel, this was the event that put these ideas into motion. A google search would also provide you with political information to back up political history and current events.

I prefer first hand information as a political insider.

 @JuliaHugoRachel Thank you for the link.

But I have to admit that does not appear to be much there, there.

No examples or quotes from Israeli leaders (even on background). Just the opinion of a Tea Party operative, which I suppose gives up the plot.

Obama is more critical of Israel than Eisenhower?

Opinions are not facts, wishes are not reality.

 @Jaycel Adkins A decent overview.

http://www.wnd.com/2012/08/when-israel-strikes-iran-in-october/

 @Jaycel Adkins Here is another "mild quote". There are too many too quote as October nears.

"Israel has signaled it might attack Iran before the November elections to prevent Iran from further developing its nuclear capabilities. Coincidently, Israel has announced the largest Mediterranean war games in U.S.-Israeli history in October. Top off this development with Iran's deployment of two warships off the coast of Lebanon, Iran's involvement in the Syrian uprising (along with Russia's involvement), and the flow of new rockets going to Hamas in Palestinian territories and some might speculate the Middle Eastern power keg has a very short fuse."

Behind this attack, Israelis have vehemently stated they are willing to shed their own blood for this cause. Obama has reached out and met with Iranian leaders. Romney reached out to Israel. His speech in Israel was captivating. This is politics. I think the consensus is from Israel, hat they will have a better life, better chance at survival if Romney is elected. I gets news daily from Israeli sources, this is what "I hear".

 @Jaycel AdkinsI am not on here to teach. Thats a quote a great physics dude said to me when I asked him about a quantum velocity shooting question.

 I have been around politics, so I guess I take my opinions for fact and granted. I did change the name to October card, from October surprise as I figured most politicos were quite aware of this move and the fact that it  can be one of the only "deal breakers" in a presidential election to beat an incumbent. I dislike wikipedia-but here is a link for you because I am exhausted and am a terrible teacher and educator. No offense.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_surprise

 @JuliaHugoRachel1 I respect your point of view and take it seriously, but you did say raise the possibility of a pact. You stated, in your reply to my comment about outsourcing:

"A planned political agreement backed by both parties." 

I believe, that can accurately be described as a pact. 

Any tool used to sway a presidential election in partnership with a foreign power is, I believe, a treasonous act. Further, Romney is in NO position to have anything classified or make Foreign Policy, he's a civilian running for office. 

Importantly, as a believer in a democratic Jewish State, always and forever, the idea that Israeli leadership would jeopardize it's relationship with the U.S. by seeking to manipulate an American election is beyond the pale. 

In the scenario you outlined, do you think the supporters of Obama, perhaps 40% of the population of the U.S. would not respond to such a provocation? I believe, unlike some on the Left and elsewhere, that Israel enjoys more support in the U.S. because we share common values. Turning the strategic relationship of the United States and Israel into a friendship of convenience between the Republican Party and Likud in support of a war whose purpose and outcome are in doubt, borders on the bizarre, which is why I think the scenario you describe is not actual. 

The scenario you outline is a recipe for existential disaster for Israel. 

I say this respectfully, but strongly. 

 @Jaycel Adkins FYI I've been a dem and a republican. A moderate. I've been trained not to talk politics, but I might raise questions and motives. I did not state that Romney made a pact with a foreign leader. Foreign Policy and agreements are confidential and often times classsified. What I did say, in a round about way was that "The October Card" might be used as a tool in this 2012 election. And if it is, it could benefit the Romney camp. Israel would certainly like to go back to Reagan era benefits. Israel has made it clear that they are willing to shed their blood for this cause. America needs Israel as an ally in the Middle East. Palestine is a threat. A Romney administration may be pro israeli sympathetic, so they have a vested interest in the outcome of this election (as does every other country have interests in ally elections, wars, conflicts, etc.) There is less than a 77% chance for a candidate to beat a presidential incumbent, without outside influence. The Opsec Video combined with an October Card move, might do it. For more information, you can search the politics of such strategic moves.

Treason is a very harsh word and I don't think it is applicable here.

 @JuliaHugoRachel1 Full disclosure: I'm not a fan of Mitt Romney. But I do believe that at his core (however small it might be for a man described by his own campaign staff as an Etch-S-Sketch, he is a democrat (small "d")).

My understanding of the term outsourcing is sending a job, that was once done in the US, overseas in order to save money on labor. I described your view that Romney made a pact with BiBi to start a war with Iran in October as an attempt to sway the election in his favor as outsourcing because:

Rather than trying to win the election by winning a contest of ideas and get out the vote, he is (according to you, I think) banking on Bibi starting a war that will harm Obama's election chances. I guess that would be 'cheaper' since it would be Israelis and Iranians dying, rather than Romney spending funds to get out the vote or winning debates.

There is another word I could use:

(100 % do not believe this as I stated above: believes he is a democrat...at heart)

If I understand your post correctly, Romney has made a pact with a foreign leader, Bibi, in order to sway the Presidential election of the United States, via an act of war on another nation, which Romney (Etch-s-Sketch) has 'promised' to support, when he is sworn into office 4 months later.....

The other word I could have used to describe that is: Treason.

 @Jaycel Adkins Manhattan project? This is more like operation paperclip in my mind.

The good thing about the Stuxnet is that you can shut it down. (after you notice it is in effect) I bet it gets toasted. Too many players going to take it down. or have already?

 @JuliaHugoRachel1 The analogy I think is best is the one about the Manhattan Project vs. everything that came after.

You only need ONE Manhattan Project, once you figure out/create the process it's a lot easier to replicate it.The Soviets didn't need to have their own Manhattan Project, they just had to be clever enough to steal the results of ours.

The scary thing about Stuxnet and it's children is that apparently you can't trace it back, which circumnavigates mutually assured destruction. Again, I'm in support of it as a measure to prevent an actual hot war. But at the same time, concerned about future fall out.

 @SEAN SPOONTS  @Jaycel Adkins 

I hear what you are saying, but being interested in peace and trade isn't what makes you a rational actor, I think. Iran is acting rationally, at least they are acting the way I would act if I was them (caveat being that I think I'm rational!).

All their neighbors have been overthrown by a government that in the past overthrew their regime. (Not subscribing a moral tale to that, but it is what it is)

They get labeled part of an Axis of Evil. One Axis of Evil member gets invaded. The other doesn't. The difference being one has the bomb. (Though I think it's more about NK's ability to level Seoul, with conventional weapons, than they actually having a nuke that is deliverable).

So they are going to make a run for the bomb. That's completely rational.I think the Iranians suck, I wish the Green Movement had staying power (though they would probably go for a bomb, too), but didn't happen, sadly.

Have you taken into account what other people's reaction to destroying Iran's oil facilities would be? The Chinese seeing it as a play to slow down their economy? The Iranians now having a green light to take out oil fields in S. Arabia + a green light to make a run for nukes. 

Taking out the oil fields is great for now...? But it justifies Iranian desire to get nukes without taking away their abilitiy. NK has nukes and they don't have oil fields to fund them (or food to feed themselves).....as do Paikistan.

The only way to take the desire for nukes from the Iranians is for them to see it's either in their self-interest (not sure how to do that, but examples being S.Africa, Libya...though that didn't turn out so well for that guy) or regime change (which means full scale war, something the Israeli's are not capable of).

Definition of a pickle. ;)

 @JuliaHugoRachel1 Point taken, I did not read your below post. 

 @Jaycel Adkins We are talking Middle East. Israel is an important component and ally for us in the Middle East.

 @JuliaHugoRachel1  @N3V3R_SRRNDR  @engelbrad  @JackMurphyRGR 

They are our only allies?

What does that make the:

British

Canadians

Germans

Aussies

Kiwis

South Koreans

Japanese

The Poles

The Filipinos

 @N3V3R_SRRNDR  @engelbrad  @JackMurphyRGR I bet they make a move in October. I think they are willing to risk it and go for broke for a long term goal. They are our only allies. They are counting on Romney coming in for support soon after elected. Timing is everything. With Obama pushing a conflict in Eqypt, this is just a stall tactic. It will backfire. Just my opinion only.

 @engelbrad  @JackMurphyRGR I think they will start this, plan on loosing lives, they are committed to the nth degree. Their agenda is a long term goal. Destruction in the short term (which will reign down) will be tolerated for the good of their long term goal.

 @N3V3R_SRRNDR  @engelbrad  @JackMurphyRGR

 History says different e.g. the 73 War, Lebanon, OSIRAK!, Syrian Reactor.

Israel's biggest shortcoming is refuel capability followed by strike aircraft (they also have a supposed secret deal with Azerbaijan to refuel there).  They are capable of a 2-3 day push that would set Iran back 2 -3 years.  The more likely Obama is to win the election the more Israel will see it is in their interest to strike.

If they do Iran is very likely to strike us to make it look like a joing op with the Israelis and hurt our rep in the middle east. 

 @engelbrad  @JackMurphyRGR I don't agree with that, I think Kevin is more right. Israel has a history of being proactive. But I do think in this case, Israel is bluffing. Without the backing of a larger coalition, Israel isn't in the prepared to shake the boat of the currently unstable Mid East.  I think the article has lots of good points about the US that are shared with Israel.  For sure there is a contingency for an attack but won't go into action until well after November, if it ever goes.