Cultural Analysis: Russia & Ukraine
For any Special Forces Operational Detachment (ODA), going into other countries (especially non-Western countries) requires more than just packing your bags and getting on a bird. One of the first lessons learned during the unconventional warfare phase of Special Forces Qualification Course (Q-Course) is to learn everything you can of your allies, enemies, and the civilians in the region.
This isn’t anything new. Hell, Sun Tzu had this on paper (bamboo?) centuries ago: “It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle.”
To truly know how to build rapport, make allies, or simply be an asset on a deployed team, you have to understand what the man on the street thinks. Even more important than the ‘what,’ is the ‘why.’ Learning about your enemies will almost always tell you about your allies, potential allies, and vice versa. A lack of knowledge can be catastrophic and potentially lethal if you’re engaging in the unconventional warfare a Special Forces Detachment specializes in.
I will admit up front: my knowledge base on the entire Russian region was very limited. I’ve always had a focus on the Middle East and Far East due to my assignment to 1st Special Forces Group. Aside from reading through much of Ronald Reagan’s autobiography, in which he discusses his interactions with the Soviets, my knowledge of Russia was limited to my knowledge of Soviet history and what I’ve seen on Archer.
So here’s a crash course of what I could gather from a number of sources with first hand experience in Ukraine and Russia. NOTE: This is not meant to be definitive, as it is coming from a novice who is merely capable of condensing research, observation, and interviews into a resource. Please challenge, discuss, expand, and argue. Something tells me this will be a very important issue in the future.
The Russian Perspective
- ‘Those that come with the sword, shall die from the sword’ – A quote that is apparently ingrained into the minds of Russian school children from legendary Russian leader Alexander Nevsky. Given the numerous historical examples, I do not doubt this to be an accurate statement, nor do I doubt the average Russian feels the same. Just ask the French.
- The Russians are very proud people. Almost to a fault… often to a fault. I knew this even before beginning my research just from observing stereotypes of nationalities, reading comments from people abroad, and reading news articles. This was confirmed to me by a number of people, Russian nationals included.
- There is a Slavic saying that roughly translates to “don’t sweep the shit out of your house to let the world see.” In English vernacular, don’t air out your dirty laundry, which is generally wise advice. There is a view among Russians that Ukraine and Crimea are essentially a Russian state, so allowing outsiders to get involved (the EU and the US) is simply poor form, especially considering the point of pride above.
- Russian identity is more of a cultural, linguistic, nationalistic notion that transcends borders. As an example, part of the given justification for Russian military intervention in Ukraine was to protect Russian-speaking people in Crimea and Ukraine. This is an idea that the average Russian can comprehend. It can also be seen in the recent move to ban Russian children from being adopted to countries that allow gay marriage, or demanding recently adopted Russian children to be forcibly returned to Russia. Once Russian, always a Russian.
- Russians spent the 20th Century under a Communist style of government and economy. This has undoubtedly shaped the average thought patterns and I would personally speculate that the collapse of the Soviet Union combined with the Russian nationalist sense of pride has planted seeds of the restlessness that is on display.
- I would guess that the more ‘strength’ Putin shows in this situation and all future problems in Russia will garner more support from the average Russian. Especially if Putin doesn’t do anything too extreme and overextend his hand without ‘just’ provocation. Couple this with weak leadership from the West, and the situation is ripe for more support to be thrown towards Putin among the average Russian.
- Just like with a prideful individual, perception rules. As one Russian source pointed out, it didn’t matter that 60+ people died during the Sochi Olympic village construction, or that there was a tremendous price tag. What mattered was the perception that Russia hosted an Olympics worthy of the Russian name. The Russian power structure will do whatever is necessary to present to the outside world that they are in charge and their actions are wise, proper, and justified.
Ukraine Perspective
- As was pointed out in earlier articles, the Ukrainian situation appears to be a division among nationalist loyalties and the human search for what will produce the greatest individual benefit. While Ukrainian sovereignty does not appear to be something that the average Ukrainian would consider or desire abandoning, they are faced with the choice between standing under the umbrella of either the European Union and Russia.
- As was identified in this email that was reported by SOFREP, corruption appears to be a major point of contention with the Ukrainians who are seeking to separate themselves from Russian power. Corruption is always an issue in any nation, but from what I’ve heard, corruption in the region is very similar to the type and degree of corruption in many Middle Eastern nations (which would be almost comedic if it weren’t so destructive).
- Regardless of whether the Maidan Revolution was instigated by Western elements, the die has been cast and the chain of events has begun. One of my sources was saying that the tone of the Ukrainians who supported the revolution has dulled sharply and there is less animosity on display. This may simply be a result of fear (which I would guess), but it could a result of reality sinking in and the gravity of the situation coming to bear.
- Both sides of the Ukrainian ‘East-West’ divide are looking for leadership, hence the divided loyalties. The strong horse, or the one that appeals to the more basic needs of the average citizen, will likely win out. With the problems the EU is currently facing economically, and the anemic leadership from the United States, I would imagine a modern-day siege from Russia being the most effective at winning support from the average Ukrainian.
- Given the element of Russian pride mentioned above, Crimea is now a Russian state and will remain that way indefinitely. The average Ukrainian may not agree with this, but given their cultural similarities, I would assume it to be well understood.
Best Case Scenario
The EU, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States come to an agreement that allows for Russia to keep control of Crimea and Ukraine to maintain total sovereignty. The EU and Russia come to an agreement on sharing Ukrainian resources that will benefit Ukraine financially.
Worst Case Scenario
Russian saber-rattling and further expansion into Ukraine increases in frequency and intensity due to increased demands and sanctions from the United States and the West, resulting in a chain of events that spark a hot conflict between Russian forces and anti-Russian Ukrainian elements. The inevitable one-sided bloodshed will give Western nations justification for getting involved and spread into a larger regional conflict.
Most Likely Scenario
Russia will continue the saber-rattling and general mocking tone towards the West and the United States. Sanctions from the West and the United Nations will be used as justification for further expansion into Ukraine. Given that United States elections are taking place in a few months, I do not expect much overt action from the Obama administration.
(Featured Image Courtesy: CIA)
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