As for chuckleheads getting nukes... the Pakistanis have nukes and we can't kiss their butts enough because of it. I'm sure had the Libyans continued with their program, Qadafi would still be around. S. Africa would be an interesting study in nuke deterrence, I too would like to know more into their decision, certainly the Cold War era played into different calculations, but having nukes today certainly is paying off greatly.
To the rest of the readership:
Not knowing much on the Southern Africa region prior, today was actually productive thanks to Jack's continued coverage of the Selous Scouts, and to think this is only a SOFREP site, talking about SOF stuff.
I was wondering if we could expand things to include geo-political flashpoint sitreps or analyses by you our SOF guides.
Many of us are just high school graduates and would appreciate some of Jack's Ivy League schoolin' and edumacatin' to trickle down to us your readership via some flashpoint analyses and strategy talk. Take up Ranger Exum's challenge of addressing strategy and SOF. I'm sure many would appreciate Jack's take on these issues, and SOFREP will be covering a much needed niche from SOF types' perspective. Looking forward to it.
@LCpl X God Forbid anyone but CNAS, and those who have drunk the koolaid, should have any input of value about geopolitics and shit. Oh the and shit covers a lot.
I guess just make sure to have a "We are not policy scholars, and could care less about quantitative analysis, we're SOFREP" to stir clear away from the homosexual orgy that is the security policy solutions industry, think tanks. Those guys dry hump each other to death.
With that said, I think Ranger Exum is correct there is a lack of analyses of SOF and strategy that you guys could attempt to fill. I know Jack also has an interest in the Philippines, and I'm into the SE Asian region (Darwin bound), I'm sure others here have similar geo-political interests. And fuck CNAS!
Try hiking anywhere along the IS8/IS19 corridor, or anywhere around the mountains of Douglas or Bisbee. When you go bring your NODS and your rifle, and maybe a SAPI plate or two. And smugling 2 leggeds is just as lucrative as anything in powder form. To see that you dont even need to go that far out. Use the main hiking area's in the TUC-PHX corridor. Its a "cold" COIN going on, come see for yourselves.
The surges in both Iraq and Af-Pak were/are both documented, but our surge, military, intel, diplomatic, economic, worth billions, are propping up our neighbor and all the coverage you hear in the news are killings and border troubles, god forbid they report Mexico's crumbling. On the flipside NYC alone is snorting a huge amount of Mexico's greatest export adding to the problems down south.
Hope you'll expand your thoughts on more issues, Jack, we'd certainly like to hear it. Sick and tired of reading policy blogs from think tanks that carry absolutely no weight in the real world.
@TOMBSTONE @LCpl X Don't get me started. I wander the vaulted halls of academia. It's scary that these kids are lost up in their own heads debating theoretical models of governance but are going to have an influence on foreign and domestic policy. If this is the best and the brightest it is no wonder why America is falling apart these days.
In the immortal words of my 18B instructor, "You looked like a bunch of naked people wearing roller skates locked in a room with the lights turned off."
@LCpl X It would be a gnarly outback adventure if you drove, but your better of flying. Its a good day and a half of straight driving atleast.
Can you drive from Darwin to Gold Coast, I've heard the same that Gold Coast is sin city in paradise.
@LCpl X You must be one of the marines coming for a visit. If you get some leave, ditch Darwin, its a shit hole,head over to the Gold Coast near Brisvegas, thats where the party is at . :D
"...solo recce of enemy camps deep in enemy territory" OMG :o btw @Angryman One of the places I worked, our dept. was referred to as "surv/recce."
Wow, these Selous Scouts sure are badass to say the least. Too bad Mr.Schulenburg has gone under the radar, I'm sure he could teach all of us many things.
@BoxOfGridSquares Not sure whether to take that as a compliment or make sure I'm sleeping butt down in the woods....lol
A true hero and patriot for his country. Nothing political, but when is Mugabe and his thugocracy leaving?
@Old PH2 It saddens me to say this, but in my opinion there is a war coming to Southern Africa sometime in the next ten years.
@JackMurphyRGR I've always wondered if things wouldn't be better if we simply redrew all of the lines in Africa, started from a clean slate and divide the continent up according to tribal and/or ethnic lines. But then again, that would probably only result in the same tribal rivalries and instead of civil wars we'd just have regular wars between nation states.
@JackMurphyRGR I've been thinking the same thing from docs I've been reading about new training camps spreading through out certain areas - and areas in Africa never remain stable for long.
I think so too. The genie has been out of that bottle for a few years now. One incident and it goes hot.
@Old PH2 Best fuckin post today brother!
@Old PH2 Ooooh, yes. Well, since independence, Kenya's political class hasn't exactly changed much - Moi's boys are still around in some form or another. From my amateur perspective, it was pretty telling that Goldenberg, their "trial of the century" (corruption) was in the headlines when my family moved there and it was in the headlines when I graduated high school and left. Oh wait, there was one incident where the British High Commissioner had some "choice words" to say about the Kibaki administration, followed closely by accusations of neo-colonialism all 'round. African politics are truly wondrous and terrifying to behold sometimes.
@LCpl X I remember a port visit to Mombasa Kenya that really helped me see just how Fucked up even the "Friendlies" were. Much like this election cycle in the US many times it's a choice between two or more evils. Whatever the Fuck happened to men of substance? Patriots, larger than life. My call is for a modern day class of men like Cincinnatus. Warriors and leaders who understand when to get the hell out of the way, and let life continue.
@ArcticWarrior @LCpl X @JackMurphyRGR I believe it was 6 nukes in RSA. I remember reading about the tests being called super-bursts of lightning as cover. Long time back in my memory banks...
@ArcticWarrior @LCpl X There is a few books written about this, and I'm not an expert, but I think the South African motivation had to do with the African nations falling to communism all around them. SA was the "last domino" so the speak and having nuclear weapons also gives you clout on the international scene.
I always wondered, did they give back the dismantled bombs to Israel. Its odd because we leaned on SA alot more then we ever did with NK or Iran, let alone Pakistan. The sanctions had to have been strangling SAs once vibrant economy.
What potential advisary did they want them for? Was it just to say we could do it?
Who ever confirmed or denied the nukes in SA? Didnt Israel help them build about 10 or so? And it really didnt get them anything but grief. Even after they were dismantled the knowledge and ties to Israel still exist. I think Pretoria was getting such a rough time they kept it on the low so as to not draw any more negative publicity.
Yeah, but I think this is like 1% of 1% of the population, I'm sure they're milking it for however long they can, but the finger's on that eject button. They really won't be part of the calculus in the coming wars. It's still really sad to think that Zimbabwe was Africa's (not just Southern Africa) bread basket and to see it all pissed away.
It's a difficult problem, we tried helping out the same way we "helped" with blacks in this country, by welfare, African rich just got richer and it didn't work,
China's policy seem practical, they're building roads, bridges, buildings, infrastructure which help those in power but gives back indirectly to the general public.
If anything useful is coming out from the region, it's the used of telecomms for commerce, etc. So maybe concentrate on building this infrastructure for them, then sit back and see what they do with it.
Thanks, man. Looks to me like black on black, and unless there's something for the west, it's gonna like the Congo--no one cares.
Zimbabwe's the greatest mismanagement in history, in such a short period of time:
As for South Africa, they should've pushed thru with their nukes, they'd have all kinds of economic and military support like Pakistan. With nukes nations will bend over backwards,
without you're gonna have to rely on George Clooney, Angelina Jolie and the KONY 2012 folks.
What's the Chinese presence like in Zimbabwe?
Don't really know much of Southern Africa region, but familiar with the problems in the Horn of Africa/Kenya, then West Africa and the Sahel (Northern Africa region).
If Southern Africa blows up, who would be at war and why. I understand Zimbabwe (Rhodesia) is forcasted to be another Somalia. I understand also that the white Zimbabwians who Mugabe fucked over left the country for greenier pastures. So who would be at war here?