Fox News released a quick post last week regarding open-source analysis of Weinstein’s video. The posting isn’t terribly detailed, but some of the highlights from Fred Burton at Stratfor, an open-source intelligence analysis company, and my reaction:
1) Weinstein’s clothing indicate he’s likely being held in colder climate, maybe underground. Much like one of the Bergdahl videos in which he’s seen wearing the Army PT tracksuit, Weinstein wears a watch cap and track suit. I agree with the cold climate take, but underground, I’d debate the necessity. There’s a lot of freedom of movement inherent to a place like the FATA, so I doubt the need to keep him underground. You could put him in one of a million mud compounds in the FATA, and he’d be out of sight of the general populace. There isn’t a good precedent for hostages underground in Pakistan (read David Rohde’s accounts for corroborating information) so if he is underground, I’d go out on a limb and say he’s not in a well-populated area. To take things further and assume both a complicit populace and local law enforcement/military, keeping him in a cave just makes things more logistically difficult on the captors. As far as the cold, I concur. FATA is a rugged place with peaks up to 3500m (11,482′). Even at 7000′, in summer, it gets cold out of the sun.
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