Recently, Japan has been brought into focus in the mainstream media regarding nuclear armament. This is all based off a comment by Republican Candidate Donald Trump, when he stated that South Korea and Japan should be brought into the Nuclear Power fold. Japan has the largest nuclear reactor on the planet, so it’s not like they don’t have the tech. But, as we all know–in fact, we’re reminded every year–Japan remains the world’s *only* nuclear victim. (We’ll stow any reason as to why, here, and focus on their future.)
My understanding–from my overall experience in general, and from talks with *Japanese* 4-star types, in particular–is that Japan has consistently been re-voted onto the non-permanent Security Council because they are being “groomed,” or whatever, to become a nuclear power. (Notwithstanding Nixon secretly promising China back in ’72 that Japan would never gain a nuclear deterrent.) This inclusion may just be a wishful thinking perspective on their part. Or…let’s crunch numbers.
As with other “Tier 2” military powers on the planet, I have heard that Japan could fab nukes in a matter of days, if need be. But that Japan would rather not have to do that, since they’d lose every inch of footing they currently have as the world’s only recipient of a nuclear attack. This tracks with everything I know about how the Japanese do things.
The reason the Japanese are rewriting the legalities and limitations currently impeding their defense posture, while also pushing for next-gen war tech (and tactics) is to avoid having to fab nukes. Also, it stands to reason that Japan wants to be the first and only permanent UNSC (United Nations Security Council) member that *does not* have nukes. That would put them in some sort of weird perceptual space as being “more powerful” than the others, since they don’t have to rely on a hollow nuke threat as weight in global political convos.
Look at the pieces they have moving on the board now, and how they’re moving them. *Total* warfare pieces/movement. Economic pieces. Tech pieces. Legal pieces. Humanitarian pieces. And, of course, military pieces. You could tell me the Japanese have secret fully armed and operational sub-surface nuke bases, and I’d ask for verification…but I sure as shit wouldn’t be surprised*. And all these pieces are moving–HAVE BEEN MOVING–under a veil of complete quietude.
(*I also sure as shit do not think this is the case. I DO believe that they are currently nukeless.)
Of course the Japanese populace will decry any single hint of nuclear armament, which is another reason the J-gov won’t wanna go that route–too much kickback and civil-social bullshit to contend with. This subject is probably about the only subject that the J-populace most likely would *never* budge on. Shit, after the Big Erfquake and Meltdown of ’11 the majority of Japan wanted to halt *all* nuclear energy production. Permanently.
Yeah. That’s how crazy the shit gets. Good luck runnin’ the largest city in the known universe on coal power, geniuses.
So…although I’m sure various govs and politicians and military leaders–including Japanese ones–conjecture on the development of Japan’s nuclear arsenal, I am very confident that the Japanese course of action reflects more of what I have written above.
They’re still spooling up. They’re still sharpening their knives. But they are not getting their nuke ducks in a row. And with regards to Trump’s comments, I do believe that Northeast Asian allies should not only be allowed to strengthen their posture(s), but they should be encouraged [by the U.S.]…while we slowly egress from very many of the obligations we’ve dug ourselves into in that AOR (Area of Responsibility).
Featured image courtesy of Japan Daily Press.