SOFREP Daily: Zelensky Offers Land Swap as Trump Pushes Ukraine Talks, Netanyahu Threatens to End Ceasefire If Hamas Delays Hostages

Welcome to Wednesday, February 12, 2025! As we hit the middle of the week, here’s your essential briefing on defense and global affairs.

Russia Hits Ukraine’s Gas Grid as Kyiv Strikes Back at Oil Refinery

Ukraine and Russia went tit-for-tat with airstrikes overnight, hitting each other’s energy infrastructure in an escalating battle ahead of key diplomatic meetings.

Ukraine reported a massive Russian attack on its Poltava region, damaging a gas facility and cutting supplies to several towns and villages. Emergency power restrictions were put in place to stabilize the grid.

Meanwhile, Ukraine struck back, launching drone attacks deep into Russia’s Saratov region, reportedly hitting an oil refinery and targeting the Engels military airbase, which houses Russian strategic bombers.

Russia’s defense ministry claimed it shot down or intercepted 40 drones, but Ukrainian officials say a key refinery was set ablaze.

NEW: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated Ukraine’s commitment to good faith peace negotiations with Russia and the particular importance of US military assistance to Ukraine’s security.

Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery and reportedly struck Engels Air Base… pic.twitter.com/P5ZmZBg80J

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) February 12, 2025

Both nations have been ramping up strikes on energy and military targets in a high-stakes push to gain the upper hand before possible negotiations under US President Donald Trump’s second term.

With missiles and drones flying both ways, the conflict shows no sign of cooling down anytime soon.

Zelenskyy Offers Land Swap as Trump Pushes Ukraine Talks

In a surprising shift, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he’s open to swapping land with Russia as part of potential negotiations—offering up territory in Russia’s Kursk region that Ukraine captured last year.

This is a significant change from his previous refusal to cede any ground since the war began in 2022.

He made the statement ahead of a meeting with US Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference, where Ukraine’s security concerns—especially its reliance on US support—will be a key issue.

#UPDATE Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was ready to swap land in negotiations with Russia, which freed an American prisoner in a move the Trump administration described Tuesday as a goodwill gesture on ending the war @shauntandon https://t.co/ou5vyTBoqY pic.twitter.com/SLKdcEyvrw

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) February 11, 2025

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is trying to jump-start diplomatic talks with Russia.

As a goodwill gesture, Moscow freed American teacher Marc Fogel, who had been jailed on drug charges since 2021.Trump welcomed the move, calling it a step toward ending the war, and suggested more prisoner releases are on the way.

He’s also sending Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Ukraine for talks, despite Bessent’s role being unrelated to foreign policy.

WELCOME HOME, MARC!🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/0b2Igcqudp

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 12, 2025

Trump’s recent remark that Ukraine “may be Russian someday” sparked outrage in Kyiv but was warmly received in Moscow.

The Kremlin claimed parts of Ukraine have already chosen to be part of Russia, referencing its widely condemned 2022 annexations.

North Korea Sends 200 Artillery Pieces to Russia for Ukraine War

North Korea has reportedly supplied Russia with 200 long-range artillery pieces, along with 11,000 troops, missiles, and a stockpile of ammunition, according to a South Korean defense official.

The arms shipments and troop deployments are part of growing military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow as Russia continues its war in Ukraine.

While neither Russia nor North Korea have officially confirmed sending troops, US, South Korean, and Ukrainian officials say that over 10,000 North Korean soldiers were dispatched to Russia last year.

Some of these troops were reportedly active on the Kursk frontline, though South Korea’s spy agency suggests they haven’t seen combat since mid-January.

North Korea has given Russia 200 long-range artillery pieces, a South Korean defence ministry official has told AFP, as Moscow and Pyongyang deepen their military ties. https://t.co/nIBri7Q1Mo pic.twitter.com/4VanX33Lhc

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) February 11, 2025

This deeper military partnership follows a defense pact signed last year when Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Pyongyang.

With the war in Ukraine dragging on, officials warn more weapons and reinforcements could be on the way.

Taiwan Tracks 62 Chinese Jets as US Warships Transit Strait

Tensions are rising again in the Taiwan Strait.

Taiwan reported detecting 62 Chinese military aircraft near the island this week, just as two US ships sailed through the contested waterway.

32 PLA aircraft, 8 PLAN vessels and 1 official ship operating around Taiwan were detected up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 22 out of the aircraft crossed the median line and entered Taiwan’s northern and southwestern ADIZ. 2 PRC balloons were detected during this timeframe. pic.twitter.com/8342e5x0bG

— 國防部 Ministry of National Defense, ROC(Taiwan) 🇹🇼 (@MoNDefense) February 11, 2025

The US frequently conducts these transits to reinforce the strait’s status as international waters, a move that consistently angers Beijing.

China’s military responded by closely monitoring the US warship and survey vessel, calling the passage a provocation that “increased security risks.” Meanwhile, Taiwan’s defense ministry assured that it had tracked and responded to the increased Chinese aerial presence.

30 PLA aircraft, 7 PLAN vessels and 1 official ship around Taiwan were detected up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 23 out of 30 sorties crossed the median line and entered Taiwan’s northern, southwestern and eastern ADIZ. We have monitored the situation and responded accordingly. pic.twitter.com/eVSsh9Pami

— 國防部 Ministry of National Defense, ROC(Taiwan) 🇹🇼 (@MoNDefense) February 12, 2025

With Beijing ramping up military activity near Taiwan and the US continuing to assert its presence in the region, the risk of conflict remains high. China has repeatedly warned that it won’t rule out using force to claim the island, and recent military maneuvers suggest it’s not backing down anytime soon.

Netanyahu Threatens to End Ceasefire If Hamas Delays Hostages

The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is on shaky ground.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened to pull out of the truce and ordered troops to prepare for a return to combat if Hamas doesn’t release more hostages by Saturday.

Hamas, on the other hand, is delaying the release of three hostages, claiming Israel has failed to uphold its end of the deal by not allowing enough aid into Gaza.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has thrown his weight behind Israel, demanding all hostages be released by Saturday or else the ceasefire should be scrapped altogether.

NEW | Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu threatened to resume military operations in the Gaza Strip if Hamas fails to release Israeli hostages on February 15. pic.twitter.com/w1BZpxDhf6

— Critical Threats (@criticalthreats) February 12, 2025

Hamas isn’t backing down, dismissing Trump’s threats and accusing Israel of breaking the ceasefire first. The group also condemned Trump’s statements, calling them an attempt to erase Palestinian national rights.

Meanwhile, Trump’s bold plan for Gaza is creating waves. He has suggested that Jordan should take in Palestinian refugees, a proposal that King Abdullah II refused to comment on directly during a meeting at the White House.

Trump also made headlines by reiterating his stance that the US should take control of Gaza after the war, sparking global backlash.

With the first phase of the ceasefire set to expire in early March, if no long-term deal is reached, Israel could find itself facing a much different battlefield, as many displaced Palestinians have now returned to Gaza’s war-ravaged north.

Gaza Needs $53 Billion for Recovery, UN Report Warns

Rebuilding Gaza is going to take a staggering $53 billion, with at least $20 billion needed in the first three years alone, according to a new United Nations report.

But before that can happen, the UN says a political and security plan must be put in place to stabilize the region and push toward a two-state solution.

After months of intense Israeli airstrikes and ground operations in response to Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack, much of Gaza’s infrastructure has been reduced to rubble.

More than 60 percent of homes are destroyed, and critical sectors like health, education, water, and agriculture all need billions to recover. On top of that, clearing the 50 million tons of debris, which includes hazardous materials and unexploded bombs, is expected to cost nearly $2 billion.

💵 A UN report estimated that recovery and reconstruction in the Gaza Strip would cost over $53 billion

👉 Short-term needs for the first three years alone are projected to reach $20.568 billion https://t.co/KkCWMg9X7E pic.twitter.com/chv8fXqR33

— Anadolu English (@anadoluagency) February 11, 2025

The report also stresses that the Palestinian Authority must take the lead in planning and executing Gaza’s reconstruction efforts.

Germany Probes Warship Sabotage After Metal Shavings Found in Engine

German authorities are investigating possible sabotage of a brand-new warship after metal shavings were dumped into its engine system, a move that could have caused major damage if it hadn’t been caught in time.

The discovery was made during an inspection of the corvette-class ship Emden at a shipyard in Hamburg, just before it was due for delivery to the German navy for deployment in the Baltic Sea.

BREAKING: German Navy Chief Warns of Sabotage & Infiltration in Baltic Sea.

German Navy Inspector Jan Christian Kaack confirms sabotage on multiple warships and intrusions at naval bases in the Baltic Sea region. Intruders attempted access by land and sea, while a warship’s…

— GeoInsider (@InsiderGeo) February 11, 2025

Investigators haven’t revealed any suspects or motives, but Germany has been on high alert for hybrid attacks, with concerns that Russia could be behind covert operations targeting NATO nations.

Recent months have seen mysterious drone activity over German military bases and suspected sabotage in the Baltic Sea, including undersea cable disruptions.

Sources: News Agencies