Evening Brief: Iran Shuts Out IAEA as Nuclear Ambiguity Deepens After Strikes, Ukrainian Drone Strike Hits Russian Defense Plant

Tonight, the global chessboard shifts again. New US commanders take the helm as Iran shuts out IAEA inspectors and tensions with China test alliances. Ukraine hits deep inside Russia with drones, jihadists wreak havoc in Mali, and protests in Togo turn deadly. Power plays, pressure points, and a world on edge, here’s your situational awareness to close out the day.

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US Senate Confirms New CENTCOM and EUCOM Chiefs Amid Heightened Global Tensions

The Senate confirmed Vice Adm. Brad Cooper as the new head of US Central Command (CENTCOM) and promoted him to four-star admiral in a quiet weekend voice vote.

Cooper assumes command at a volatile moment, with US-Iran tensions flaring after President Donald Trump authorized strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities in support of Israel’s recent military campaign.

Trump announced a ceasefire following the strikes but warned Friday he would “absolutely” consider renewed military action if Iran’s nuclear infrastructure was not fully destroyed. The Senate recently rejected a measure that would have restricted Trump’s authority to launch further attacks on Iran.

At his confirmation hearing, Cooper acknowledged Iran remains a threat despite recent setbacks, pointing to Tehran’s retaliatory missile attack on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. No U.S. casualties were reported, and Trump said Iran had provided advance warning.

Cooper previously served as CENTCOM deputy commander and as commander of US Naval Forces Central Command and the 5th Fleet. He replaces Gen. Erik Kurilla, whose term has ended.

In the same vote, the Senate confirmed Gen. Alexus Grynkewich as head of US European Command (EUCOM).

Grynkewich was sworn in Tuesday and will also serve as NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, a role traditionally held by an American general.

General Alexus G. Grynkewich is officially the new Commander of @US_EUCOM, the combatant command responsible for promoting peace and security across 51 countries and territories in and around #Europe. pic.twitter.com/M5hV12i4iM

— The Joint Staff 🇺🇸 (@thejointstaff) July 1, 2025

Grynkewich’s appointment comes as Trump, while recently praising NATO’s defense spending commitments, continues to express skepticism about long-term US military involvement in Europe. His administration previously considered relinquishing US leadership of the alliance—a move now seemingly off the table with Grynkewich’s dual role confirmed.

Rubio Hosts Quad Talks to Counter China Amid Strained Bilateral Ties

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio welcomed his Australian, Indian, and Japanese counterparts on Tuesday for a Quad ministerial meeting aimed at strengthening Indo-Pacific security and countering China’s expanding influence.

Despite a shared strategic vision, trade tensions and diplomatic friction have complicated relations among the four partners.

The meeting marked Rubio’s first major diplomatic engagement since taking office and was intended to reaffirm the Quad’s commitment to a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” However, unresolved issues loomed large.

Japan postponed a key ministerial defense meeting over US pressure to increase its defense spending, while India objected to President Trump’s claim that his intervention averted war with Pakistan following April’s Kashmir violence. Meanwhile, Australia remains uneasy over a US review of the AUKUS submarine pact.

In his opening remarks, Rubio called for concrete action and announced a meeting of 30-40 Quad-based companies to discuss reducing reliance on Chinese-dominated critical mineral supply chains. The Quad also highlighted shared priorities in maritime security, technology cooperation, pandemic preparedness, and education.

#WATCH | Washington DC, The US | Quad Foreign Ministers’ meeting | US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says, “…In addition to the bilateral relationships we have with each of the three partner nations that are here, it’s also important within this forum, to turn it into one where… pic.twitter.com/M6tF4NyRe0

— ANI (@ANI) July 1, 2025

State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce emphasized the Quad’s unified stance on defending sovereignty and regional stability. Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar echoed that sentiment, acknowledging ongoing bilateral challenges but reaffirming a shared commitment to strategic cooperation.

Analysts warned that domestic and bilateral disagreements could overshadow the summit’s goals. Australian observers are watching closely for clarity on US positions regarding AUKUS and trade. Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted growing Japanese frustration over US tariff demands and Indian discontent with Washington’s inconsistent diplomatic tone.

Despite the tensions, the Quad continues planning for a leaders’ summit in India later this year. Officials hope sustained engagement will maintain momentum and reinforce a collective response to China’s assertiveness in the region.

Iran Confirms Nuclear Site Damage, Signals Openness to US Talks Despite Hardliner Backlash

Iran acknowledged Tuesday that US airstrikes caused serious damage to its key nuclear sites at Fordo, Isfahan, and Natanz during the recent 12-day war with Israel.

Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani confirmed the extent of the destruction and noted that Tehran remains open to potential talks with Washington, though no timeline has been set.

The strikes, launched in coordination with Israel, targeted Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure and decimated elements of its Revolutionary Guard. US officials believe Iran had enriched uranium up to 60%, just short of weapons-grade, though no organized weapons program has been confirmed since 2003.

Iran’s judiciary revised the official death toll to 935, including 38 children and 102 women. Independent observers estimate the toll is higher, with over 1,100 killed and thousands wounded.

NEW: Iran has likely begun to assess damage and conduct repair operations at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant. Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 28 and 29 shows Iranian heavy equipment near two clusters of three impact points on ventilation shafts at… pic.twitter.com/w2IyR2HpfM

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) June 29, 2025

Iran’s leadership continues to frame the conflict as a victory despite the losses and destruction.

Satellite imagery from Planet Labs and Maxar Technologies revealed ongoing assessments and potential recovery work at the Fordo facility, suggesting Iran may have taken precautions to preserve critical equipment before the strikes. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), however, noted it had already lost oversight of Iran’s nuclear inventory, raising concerns about possible undeclared sites.

Fresh activity was spotted over the weekend at the Fordow nuclear facility in Iran that was hit by U.S. bunker buster bombs on June 21, suggesting that the rogue regime was up to something. High-resolution satellite images captured by Maxar Technologies… https://t.co/tYGiATKmYp pic.twitter.com/0CLfLplBko

— The Western Journal (@WesternJournalX) June 30, 2025

While Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi hinted at future diplomacy, Iranian hardliners are aggressively opposing any dialogue. Kayhan newspaper, closely aligned with Supreme Leader Khamenei, mocked the idea of negotiations and even called for the execution of IAEA chief Rafael Grossi if he visited Iran.

As another UN sanctions deadline approaches, Iran appears to be weighing the cost of further isolation against the benefits of re-engaging diplomatically with the West.

Iran Shuts Out IAEA as Nuclear Ambiguity Deepens After Strikes

Iran has cut off direct communication with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) following last month’s US and Israeli strikes on its nuclear sites, escalating uncertainty over the status of its atomic program.

Iranian regulators have ceased responding to IAEA contacts, ending routine inspections and triggering what analysts describe as a return to Cold War-style “strategic ambiguity.”

Previously averaging over one IAEA inspection per day, Iran has now shut off access to key facilities at Natanz and Fordo, which suffered damage in the airstrikes.

Despite US President Donald Trump’s claims that Iran’s nuclear capabilities were “obliterated,” IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi stated Iran could potentially resume enrichment activities within months. The location of Iran’s 409 kilograms of near-weapons-grade uranium remains unknown, raising fears it may have been moved to undeclared sites.

Iran’s Parliament recently approved a law suspending IAEA cooperation, though it has not withdrawn from the Non-Proliferation Treaty—yet.

The Parliament of Iran has voted for a halt to collaboration with the IAEA until the safety and security of our nuclear activities can be guaranteed.

This is a direct result of @rafaelmgrossi‘s regrettable role in obfuscating the fact that the Agency—a full decade ago—already…

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) June 27, 2025

Experts warn that Iran’s information blackout and refusal to verify its stockpile could both enhance its leverage and diminish its credibility.

Meanwhile, Trump offered mixed signals—suggesting possible sanctions relief in return for peace during a Fox News interview, while just days earlier declared via Truth Social that such concessions were off the table due to Iranian leadership’s claims of victory.

Iran has left the door open for future talks but remains skeptical of the ceasefire with Israel.

Suspected Jihadists Launch Coordinated Attacks on Malian Military Bases

Suspected jihadists launched coordinated attacks on multiple military installations in western Mali early Tuesday, including an army camp in the key city of Kayes, according to Mali’s military and local reports.

The Malian Army confirmed that seven of its positions were targeted in what it described as “coordinated attacks carried out very early this morning.”

Residents in Kayes reported heavy gunfire and visible smoke near the governor’s residence, while a police source said militants in pickup trucks were assaulting the local military camp. Civilians near the area were forced to evacuate amid ongoing clashes.

BREAKING:

The al-Qaeda group JNIM has launched a massive simultaneous attacks on multiple Malian Army positions in western Mali.

The targeted towns included Niono, Molodo, Sandaré, Nioro du Sahel, Diboli, Gogui, and Kayes, all of which are strategic military or logistical hubs… pic.twitter.com/mzxZCWlYSy

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) July 1, 2025

Local official Sekou Niame Bathily confirmed attacks in Nioro, Sandare, and Gogui, further highlighting the scale of the assault. The violence comes amid a surge in jihadist activity in Mali, where groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, along with separatist and criminal factions, have destabilized the country since 2012.

At Least Three Killed in Togo Protests Over Constitutional Power Grab

At least three people, including two teenagers, were killed during protests in Togo’s capital, Lomé, from June 26 to 28, according to Amnesty International.

The unrest was sparked by recent constitutional changes that could allow President Faure Gnassingbé to remain in power indefinitely.

Bodies were found in Lomé’s Be neighborhood lagoon following violent clashes between protesters and security forces. Amnesty’s Togo office confirmed that the victims showed signs of beating, and the exact cause of death remains under investigation.

Civil society groups reported a total of seven fatalities, with additional bodies discovered in lakes and lagoons across the city.

Protests have broken out in Lomé, the capital of Togo, over new constitutional changes that could let President Faure Gnassingbé stay in power indefinitely.

Reports say security forces are using violence against civilians.

Faure Gnassingbé has been president since 2005, and his… pic.twitter.com/KjjXXQUNeo

— African Hub (@AfricanHub_) July 1, 2025

A coalition of 12 rights groups accused security forces of arbitrary arrests, assaults, and property damage, calling the killings a “state crime.” The Togolese government acknowledged some deaths but claimed they resulted from drowning.

The protests followed mounting opposition to Gnassingbé’s appointment as president of the Council of Ministers, a powerful role with no term limits, after nearly two decades in office. Critics labeled the shift a “constitutional coup,” replacing the presidency with a largely ceremonial figure and positioning Gnassingbé for indefinite reappointment by parliament.

Public demonstrations have been banned in Togo since 2022, making last week’s protests a rare and forceful expression of dissent in a region already facing rising threats to democratic governance.

Ukrainian Drone Strike Hits Russian Defense Plant as Both Sides Ramp Up Drone Warfare

A Ukrainian drone strike on Tuesday hit the Kupol Electromechanical Plant in Izhevsk, deep inside Russian territory—roughly 1,300 kilometers (808 miles) from the front line—killing three people and injuring 35, according to Udmurtia regional head Alexander Brechalov.

The plant reportedly manufactures air defense systems and drones for the Russian military.

Ukrainian officials, speaking anonymously, confirmed the facility was targeted and sustained at least two direct hits. The strike represents one of the deepest and most impactful Ukrainian attacks on Russian defense infrastructure in the three-year war.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine is accelerating domestic drone production to counter Russia’s escalating drone barrage.

Footage captures powerful blasts erupting from the Kupol plant in Izhevsk, Russia, with what appear to be secondary explosions inside the facility. The site, known for producing air defense systems, has sent people fleeing in panic. https://t.co/Dnz9zfMd5Z pic.twitter.com/arlzIwS775

— Polymarket Intel (@PolymarketIntel) July 1, 2025

Russia launched a record 5,438 drones against Ukraine in June alone, according to data from The Associated Press. In retaliation, Ukraine has expanded long-range drone strikes on Russian military targets, storage sites, and logistical hubs.

Zelenskyy stated that ramping up the production of interceptor and long-range drones is now a top national priority.

Overnight, Russia claimed to have downed 60 Ukrainian drones across several regions, while four Russian Shahed drones struck Zaporizhzia, cutting power to over 1,600 homes. Ukraine’s Air Force reported 52 drones launched by Russia in the same timeframe.

2/ Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 30, 2025 | Institute for the Study of War: https://t.co/wnIFd2SxFR pic.twitter.com/C15360R1zc

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) June 30, 2025

Meanwhile, US envoy Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Keith Kellogg called on Russia to halt attacks on Ukrainian civilians and urged immediate ceasefire talks. His comments come amid growing uncertainty over future US aid.

According to the Kiel Institute, Europe has now surpassed the US in military aid to Ukraine, contributing $85 billion compared to $77 billion from Washington.

Separately, Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron spoke for the first time in nearly three years. Putin insisted any peace deal must reflect “new territorial realities,” while Macron reaffirmed France’s support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and called for an immediate ceasefire to begin negotiations.

Former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Sentenced for Embezzlement in Widening Military Corruption Scandal

Russia’s former Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was sentenced Tuesday to 13 years in prison on charges of embezzlement and money laundering in a major corruption case that has exposed deep dysfunction within Moscow’s military leadership amid ongoing failures in Ukraine.

The Moscow City Court found Ivanov guilty of embezzling 3.9 billion rubles (approximately $50 million). His assets, including high-end real estate and a collection of vintage cars, were seized. Ivanov, who denied the charges, has been in custody since April 2024. His defense team plans to appeal the verdict.

A Moscow court sentenced Russia’s former deputy defence minister Timur Ivanov to 13 years in a penal colony on charges of bribery and money laundering on Tuesday. ⤵️ pic.twitter.com/KQD74QSu5o

— Novaya Gazeta Europe (@novayagazeta_en) July 1, 2025

Ivanov, appointed in 2016, managed military construction and logistics and became notorious for his lavish lifestyle while the Russian military struggled with logistics and combat readiness during its war in Ukraine. He had also been sanctioned by both the US and EU for his role in the conflict.

The case is part of a broader anti-corruption purge targeting allies of former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who has since been reassigned to head Russia’s Security Council.

Investigators have also arrested former Deputy Defense Minister Pavel Popov and Vyacheslav Akhmedov, director of Patriot Park—a sprawling military theme park west of Moscow that Ivanov oversaw. Popov is accused of diverting state funds meant for the park to build a private estate.

The convictions underscore the Kremlin’s internal reckoning with corruption in its defense establishment as it tries to recover from military failures in Ukraine.

Sources: News Agencies