Morning Brief: Israel, Iran Continue Strikes as Trump Weighs US Military Involvement

Good morning and welcome to your SOFREP Morning Brief for Friday, June 20, 2025. As Israel and Iran trade fire into a second week, the death toll climbs past 650 Iranians and 24 Israelis. Trump weighs US military action on Iran’s Fordow site but may hold off for nuclear talks. The US evacuated nonessential embassy staff from Israel amid growing war fears. A new UN report reveals record levels of violence against children in conflict zones, with Gaza among the worst. Jihadists killed 34 soldiers in Niger. And in Europe, Spain rejected NATO’s 5% defense spending target, stirring tensions ahead of the high-security summit in The Hague.

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Israel, Iran Continue Strikes as Trump Weighs US Military Involvement

Israel and Iran exchanged strikes Friday, marking one week of open conflict as US President Donald Trump considers direct military involvement.

Trump said he would decide within two weeks whether to strike Iran’s fortified Fordow uranium enrichment facility, citing a “substantial chance” for renewed nuclear negotiations.

🚨 @PressSec shares an important message from President Donald J. Trump: “Based on the fact that there’s a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks.” pic.twitter.com/Xh3rNuURn0

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) June 19, 2025

In parallel, diplomatic efforts gained traction. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi appeared en route to Geneva for talks with the European Union and European counterparts.

The UK’s foreign secretary also met with US officials to discuss a potential de-escalation deal.

Overnight, Israel launched airstrikes using more than 60 aircraft, targeting Iranian missile production sites and the SPND—an agency linked to past nuclear weapons research. Iranian media reported strikes near Rasht on the Caspian Sea, with Israel warning civilians in the area to evacuate.

In response, Iran launched more missiles at Israeli territory, striking residential areas in the south. Five civilians suffered minor injuries.

A day earlier, a missile strike on Beersheba’s Soroka Medical Center wounded over 80 people, prompting Israel’s defense minister to call for the elimination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

MORE: Iranian proposals that do not fulfill US demands, such as the US demand for zero Iranian uranium enrichment, will likely preclude Iran from reaching a new nuclear deal with the United States and a ceasefire in the Israel-Iran War. ⬇️(1/3)

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali… https://t.co/DLj5SgWICL pic.twitter.com/0A0xJeXxgV

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) June 20, 2025

Since the conflict began on June 13, at least 657 Iranians—including 263 civilians—have died, and more than 2,000 have been wounded, according to a US-based Iranian human rights group. Iran has retaliated with over 1,450 combined missile and drone attacks, resulting in 24 Israeli deaths and hundreds of injuries.

Israel has targeted key Iranian nuclear and military assets, including facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and Tehran, along with numerous missile launchers—disrupting Iran’s ability to sustain high-volume attacks.

3/ Iran has continued its ballistic missile campaign despite the IDF’s claims that it has destroyed between 1/2 and 2/3 of Iran’s missile launchers. Iran has launched more advanced missiles targeting Israel since June 18.

Evening Update: https://t.co/rmTSVaamme pic.twitter.com/GwFE4RMnK7

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) June 20, 2025

While Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful, it enriches uranium to 60%, just short of weapons-grade, raising international concerns.

Israel, which is believed to possess nuclear weapons, has not confirmed its arsenal.

US Evacuates Diplomats from Israel as Trump Signals Possible Military Action

The US State Department has begun evacuating nonessential diplomats and their families from the embassy in Israel amid escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.

A government flight removed some personnel on Wednesday, though the total number of evacuees remains undisclosed. Others may have departed overland to Jordan or Egypt.

The evacuation follows President Donald Trump’s warnings that the US could join Israel in striking Iran’s nuclear program. While Trump said he prefers to avoid military action, he emphasized readiness to act if necessary.

#BREAKING: US reportedly evacuates nonessential diplomats and their families from its embassy in Israel as Trump weighs strikes on Iran

For more: https://t.co/1c5lYIHjD9 pic.twitter.com/PVSYJR62jj

— TRT World (@trtworld) June 18, 2025

US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee announced potential evacuation plans for private American citizens by plane or ship. However, the State Department later clarified that no such evacuations were planned at this time but noted it is evaluating all options and advising US citizens to leave independently if safe.

The embassy in Jerusalem authorized the departure of nonessential staff last weekend and ordered remaining personnel to shelter in place. It has been closed since Monday and will remain shut through Friday.

This move comes as part of a broader security posture shift, with the US military repositioning assets across the Middle East and the embassy in Baghdad already cleared of nonessential personnel.

The administration continues to issue heightened travel warnings across the region.

UN: Violence Against Children in Conflict Zones Hits Record High in 2024

Violence against children in armed conflicts surged to unprecedented levels in 2024, according to a United Nations report released Thursday.

The report, issued by Secretary-General António Guterres, verified 41,370 grave violations against children—a 25% increase from 2023, which was itself a record year.

The violations include killings, maimings, abductions, child recruitment, sexual violence, and denial of humanitarian aid across 20 global conflict zones. Over 4,500 children were killed and more than 7,000 injured in 2024, with 22,495 suffering multiple violations.

Israel included for the second year in a row on UN report into child violations, which says Israeli forces fulfilled criteria of a “party that kills and maims children” and “a party that engages in attacks on schools and/or hospitals.”

🟥 Read report: https://t.co/5vTEg96jO0 pic.twitter.com/14QUGKNPEI

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) June 20, 2025

The Palestinian territories topped the list with over 8,500 violations, most attributed to Israeli forces, including 1,259 confirmed child deaths in Gaza. The UN is verifying another 4,470 potential child deaths there. Israeli operations in Lebanon also resulted in over 500 child casualties. The Israeli military and Hamas remain on the UN’s “list of shame.”

Other heavily affected countries include the Democratic Republic of Congo (4,000+ violations), Somalia (2,500+), Nigeria (nearly 2,500), and Haiti (2,200+). The Haitian gang coalition “Viv Ansanm” and Colombia’s Clan del Golfo drug cartel were newly added to the UN blacklist for child recruitment and violent abuses.

Russia’s armed forces remain on the list, with a 105% increase in child rights violations in Ukraine. Sudan’s Army and Rapid Support Forces were also listed again amid ongoing conflict.

UN special representative Virginia Gamba called the figures a “wake-up call,” warning the world is “at the point of no return.”

Hundreds of Armed Men Kill 34 Soldiers in Jihadist Attack Near Mali-Niger Border

Hundreds of armed fighters attacked the town of Banibangou in western Niger on Thursday, killing 34 soldiers and wounding 14, according to the country’s defense ministry.

The attackers, described as mercenaries, arrived in eight vehicles and over 200 motorbikes.

Nigerien forces responded by killing “dozens of terrorists” and have since deployed reinforcements and launched search operations by land and air to locate the attackers.

Armed attack in Niger kills 34 soldiers near Mali border
➡️ https://t.co/kp9FuK5mZd pic.twitter.com/aLulJ0dRiR

— FRANCE 24 English (@France24_en) June 19, 2025

The assault occurred near the volatile tri-border region shared with Mali and Burkina Faso, an area plagued by jihadist groups linked to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. Niger also faces threats from Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province in its southeast.

Niger, now ruled by a military junta for two years, has expelled both French and US counterterrorism forces, intensifying its struggle against surging jihadist violence.

Spain Rejects NATO’s Proposed 5% Defense Spending Target, Risks Summit Disruption

Spain has rejected NATO’s upcoming proposal for member nations to allocate 5% of GDP to defense, calling the goal “unreasonable” and “counterproductive.”

In a letter sent Thursday to NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez said Spain cannot commit to such a figure ahead of next week’s summit in The Hague.

Sánchez warned that the 5% demand would undermine Spain’s social welfare system and green transition goals. He proposed a more flexible arrangement, either optional or excluding Spain from the new benchmark. He reiterated Spain’s full commitment to NATO but argued that its military needs could be met with 2.1% of GDP.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez calls NATO’s proposal of increasing defense spending by 5% ‘irrational’

He proposes a more ‘flexible’ formula and backed excluding Spain from the 5% target ahead of next week’s NATO summit in The Hague https://t.co/PLu5bEhSD4 pic.twitter.com/hVgwXlfWQy

— Anadolu English (@anadoluagency) June 19, 2025

Spain was the alliance’s lowest defense spender last year, investing less than 2% of GDP. Although Sánchez has committed to reaching that 2% mark by 2025, further increases face domestic resistance from coalition partners and amid ongoing political pressure stemming from corruption scandals.

The proposed 5% figure includes 3.5% for core military needs and 1.5% for civilian infrastructure and readiness. Most NATO allies, including Poland and the Baltic states, support the increase, and a consensus is required to formalize the new standard. The lack of agreement risks derailing the summit, which US President Donald Trump is scheduled to attend.

NATO continues negotiations to avoid a deadlock, with a final proposal expected before leaders convene.

A key point still under discussion is the target year for compliance, with 2032 initially suggested, though intelligence reports warn of potential Russian aggression as early as 2030.

NATO Summit Locks Down The Hague, Disrupts Daily Life and Businesses

The Hague has transformed into a high-security zone as NATO prepares for a June 24–25 summit involving leaders from its 32 member nations, including US President Donald Trump.

Dutch authorities have launched Operation Orange Shield, the country’s largest-ever security deployment, turning the normally tranquil city into a military fortress.

Security measures include 27,000 police officers, 10,000 defense personnel, airspace closures, naval patrols, and fighter jet surveillance. Riot police, bomb squads, and military escorts are in place, while cybersecurity teams work behind the scenes. F-35s, Apache helicopters, and naval frigates are on standby as protests are expected to erupt during the event.

To make sure that NATO can continue to deter and defend against any threat, Allies must invest more in defence.

5️⃣ days until the #NATOsummit where Heads of State and government will meet to discuss a concrete defence investment plan for the future.

Learn more ↓

— NATO (@NATO) June 19, 2025

The NATO agenda includes a new defense spending target and discussions on Ukraine and transatlantic security.

As the summit unfolds near iconic institutions like the International Criminal Court and the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), many residents are fleeing the chaos, bracing for the disruption to pass.

Sources: News Agencies