Good morning, here’s your SOFREP Morning Brief for Wednesday, June 25, 2025. Tensions remain high as a US intel report contradicts Trump’s claim of crippling Iran’s nuclear program. Executions in Iran, drone warfare in Ukraine, and NATO’s internal friction over spending and security commitments dominate global headlines. Meanwhile, the USS Gerald R. Ford sets sail, Germany boosts its defense pledge, and a US Marine’s conviction in Okinawa reignites controversy over the American military presence in Japan.
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US Intel Report Contradicts Trump on Iran Strike, Says Nuclear Program Only Temporarily Set Back
A new Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessment concludes that US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last week set back Tehran’s nuclear program by only a few months, not “completely and fully obliterated,” as President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have claimed.
The classified report, first reported by CNN, found that core infrastructure and enriched uranium stockpiles at sites like Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan largely survived the attack.
The report states that Iran had likely moved key materials, including some of its 60%-enriched uranium and centrifuges, ahead of the strikes. Satellite imagery captured days before the attack showed bulldozers sealing tunnel entrances and possibly transporting stockpiles off-site.
DIA officials concluded that while the strikes caused significant surface-level damage, underground structures, particularly at Fordo, remained largely intact.
A preliminary US intelligence assessment suggests last weekend’s US military strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities damaged but did not destroy key components of Iran’s nuclear program, likely delaying it by only a few months.
Good morning, here’s your SOFREP Morning Brief for Wednesday, June 25, 2025. Tensions remain high as a US intel report contradicts Trump’s claim of crippling Iran’s nuclear program. Executions in Iran, drone warfare in Ukraine, and NATO’s internal friction over spending and security commitments dominate global headlines. Meanwhile, the USS Gerald R. Ford sets sail, Germany boosts its defense pledge, and a US Marine’s conviction in Okinawa reignites controversy over the American military presence in Japan.
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US Intel Report Contradicts Trump on Iran Strike, Says Nuclear Program Only Temporarily Set Back
A new Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessment concludes that US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last week set back Tehran’s nuclear program by only a few months, not “completely and fully obliterated,” as President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have claimed.
The classified report, first reported by CNN, found that core infrastructure and enriched uranium stockpiles at sites like Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan largely survived the attack.
The report states that Iran had likely moved key materials, including some of its 60%-enriched uranium and centrifuges, ahead of the strikes. Satellite imagery captured days before the attack showed bulldozers sealing tunnel entrances and possibly transporting stockpiles off-site.
DIA officials concluded that while the strikes caused significant surface-level damage, underground structures, particularly at Fordo, remained largely intact.
A preliminary US intelligence assessment suggests last weekend’s US military strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities damaged but did not destroy key components of Iran’s nuclear program, likely delaying it by only a few months.
The Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s… pic.twitter.com/PMZZZ5benU
— Intel Tower🗽 (@inteltower) June 24, 2025
The White House dismissed the findings, calling the report “flat-out wrong.” Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt insisted the strikes were a total success, claiming they obliterated Iran’s nuclear capacity.
Trump envoy Steve Witkoff called the leak “treasonous” and said the strikes had removed Iran’s ability to develop a weapon.
Outside experts and satellite firms, however, support the DIA’s findings.
Maxar Technologies reported visible preparations at nuclear sites prior to the attack. Analysts said Iran still possesses the materials and capacity to restart a covert enrichment program quickly. Though the attacks likely degraded some capabilities and eliminated personnel, experts warn that Iran could use its remaining 60% uranium stockpile to rapidly reach weapons-grade levels if it chooses.
At Iran’s Natanz enrichment facility, two craters right above the undergound buildings housing centrifuges that were visible after US strikes on 22 June have now been covered with dirt.
Before: 22 June
After: 24 June📷@Maxar pic.twitter.com/VoGOzPL0gY
— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) June 24, 2025
Vice President JD Vance defended the mission’s success, saying the US eliminated Iran’s ability to convert uranium into a usable weapon, even if the stockpile remains. Meanwhile, Iran continues to deny seeking nuclear arms, though the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned that Tehran now has enough enriched uranium to make several bombs if it moves to weaponize.
As political pressure builds, the Biden-era hope of re-entering nuclear negotiations remains uncertain, with the potential for a covert Iranian program now seen as a growing threat.
Iran Executes Three More Accused of Spying for Israel
Iran executed three men Wednesday for allegedly spying for Israel, bringing the total number of espionage-related hangings to six since June 16, according to state-run IRNA.
The men, Azad Shojaei, Edris Aali, and Iraqi national Rasoul Ahmad Rasoul, were hanged at Urmia Prison in West Azerbaijan province. Authorities accused them of smuggling “assassination equipment” into the country.
The executions are part of an ongoing crackdown amid Iran’s conflict with Israel. Human rights groups, including Amnesty International, had previously warned of the risk of executions tied to wartime espionage accusations. Activists fear more hangings may follow, especially after Iran issued a deadline for suspected spies to surrender.
Iranian media have reported that three individuals accused of being Mossad spies were executed in the city of Urmia.
The individuals have been identified as Edris Ali, Azad Shojaei, and Rasoul Ahmad Rasoul. They were reportedly involved in smuggling equipment into Iran intended… pic.twitter.com/MgPAli2cCZ
— TOLOnews (@TOLOnews) June 25, 2025
The executions come as a US-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel holds.
Iran’s government reports 606 killed and 5,332 wounded during the conflict, while Human Rights Activists put the toll at 1,054 dead and 4,476 injured—417 of them civilians.
Despite the lingering tension, daily life in Iran is slowly resuming. State media reported heavy traffic as people returned to Tehran from rural areas following weeks of Israeli airstrikes that targeted military leadership and government-linked sites.
Russi Found in Ukraine Signals Advanced Tech and Moscow’s Evolving Tactics
Ukrainian forces recently recovered a sophisticated drone featuring Iranian anti-jamming technology, advanced artificial intelligence (AI) computing, and remote operation capabilities, marking a notable escalation in Russia’s drone warfare.
The white drone, identified by its Iranian-style labeling, differed from standard Russian black drones and contained components pointing to Iranian origin, including an anti-jamming unit not previously seen in Ukraine.
Experts believe Iran likely supplied the drone for combat testing. While the discovery underscores Tehran’s continued technical support to Russia, the UK Defense Ministry says Israeli strikes on Iran may disrupt future drone shipments, as Tehran has been a key supplier.
The drone included a radio link allowing operators in Russia to reprogram targets mid-flight, enhancing its precision and adaptability. It also boasted eight antennas to resist jamming and an AI navigation platform for autonomy if communications are lost.
2/ Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Kherson City. pic.twitter.com/sgXc97xGIu
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) June 24, 2025
Most of Russia’s drones are now domestically produced, based on Iranian Shahed models assembled at the secretive Alabuga plant in Tatarstan. The factory has refined these drones, including versions with thermobaric warheads and decoy models under “Operation False Target.”
Despite sanctions, Russia and Iran continue acquiring Western technology. Experts suggest recent Israeli strikes on Iranian drone infrastructure could impact Moscow’s drone supplies over time.
Meanwhile, Russia is evolving tactics — using high-altitude, low-profile, and wave-style drone attacks to exhaust Ukrainian air defenses. Data shows drone strike effectiveness has risen from 6% in November 2024 to as high as 50% in June 2025, with hits surging since President Trump’s January inauguration.
Ukrainian defense officials say this success is driven by increased drone volume, improved tech, and new strategies. They, however, warn sustainability may hinge on Iran’s future capacity to support Russia.
Trump Presses NATO on Defense Spending, Faces Scrutiny Over Article 5 and Iran Ceasefire
US President Donald Trump arrived at the NATO summit in The Hague on Wednesday pushing a hardline demand that member nations boost defense spending to 5% of GDP, a move most allies, except Spain, are preparing to endorse.
Trump hailed the shift as a win for his years-long campaign to make NATO members “pay their fair share.”
Trump’s arrival comes amid renewed controversy over his commitment to NATO’s mutual defense clause, Article 5. Asked if he still honors it, Trump replied, “depends on your definition,” adding that he would clarify his stance during the summit. The remark has rattled allies already concerned about US reliability in the face of Russian aggression.
President Trump participates in the family photo at the NATO Summit in The Hague, Netherlands. pic.twitter.com/YcMTUlB6Jm
— CSPAN (@cspan) June 24, 2025
The summit also unfolds under the shadow of Trump’s brokered ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which both sides have already allegedly violated. Trump expressed frustration with both nations, accusing them of undermining the agreement.
Meanwhile, a leaked US intelligence assessment contradicts Trump’s claim that recent American airstrikes “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. The Defense Intelligence Agency reportedly concluded the strikes only set Iran back a few months. Trump dismissed the findings as false and accused the media of trying to discredit “one of the most successful military strikes in history.”
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 25, 2025
The White House has not confirmed Trump’s bilateral meetings, though he indicated he may meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during the summit.
USS Gerald R. Ford Deploys Amid Iran-Israel Ceasefire, Regional Tensions
The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), the US Navy’s most advanced aircraft carrier, departed Norfolk, Virginia, on Tuesday for a scheduled deployment that could place it near Israeli waters amid ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran.
Nearly 4,500 sailors joined the deployment, which includes guided-missile destroyers and multiple fighter squadrons.
The deployment follows US airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites Sunday in support of Israel’s efforts to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program. Iran responded with a limited missile strike on a US base in Qatar, before President Trump announced a “complete and total ceasefire” to be phased in within 24 hours.
The world’s largest aircraft carrier, USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), departs Naval Station Norfolk, June 24, for a regularly scheduled deployment.
#CVN78 #Ready2Fight pic.twitter.com/lVy61ybnjq— U.S. 2nd Fleet (@US2ndFleet) June 24, 2025
While the Ford is officially headed to the European theater, its positioning allows the US to expand its naval presence in the region, giving Trump the option of deploying a third carrier group to the Middle East. The US has been steadily increasing its regional footprint to defend Israel from potential Iranian or proxy attacks.
The Ford, which uses an advanced electromagnetic aircraft launch system, previously operated in the Eastern Mediterranean following Hamas’ October 7 attacks in 2023. Its warships later intercepted Houthi missiles and drones in the Red Sea during one of the most intense naval combat operations since World War II.
With the Houthis now threatening to resume attacks if the US deepens its involvement in the conflict, the Ford’s deployment signals continued US readiness to support Israel and counter threats across the region.
Trump Administration Faces Legal Challenge Over National Guard Use in Marijuana Farm Raid
National Guard troops originally mobilized to respond to unrest in Los Angeles were redirected over 100 miles away to assist in a federal immigration enforcement raid on suspected illegal marijuana farms in the Coachella Valley, according to court documents filed by the Trump administration on Monday.
Roughly 315 Guard troops supported the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) in executing a federal search warrant last Wednesday in Thermal, California. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents arrested 70–75 undocumented workers and one US citizen accused of obstructing law enforcement.
The DEA cited the large scale and extreme heat of the 787-acre operation as the reason for deploying over 500 federal personnel, including members from multiple agencies.
Hundreds of DEA agents, police and National Guard troops spread out across Southern California on Wednesday morning to dismantle three illegal marijuana grow operations in what DEA agent Anthony Chrysanthis says is one of Los Angeles’ “biggest law enforcement collaborations.”… pic.twitter.com/CrpPIUKb4n
— NewsNation (@NewsNation) June 19, 2025
The operation has become a legal flashpoint in an ongoing dispute between California Governor Gavin Newsom and President Donald Trump over federal authority to command approximately 4,000 National Guard troops.
California Attorney General Rob Bonta’s office argued the Coachella deployment exceeded the justification previously upheld by the 9th Circuit Court, which ruled Trump could retain control of troops in LA to protect federal personnel and property amid civil unrest.
Federal attorneys defended the deployment, stating the mission aligned with immigration enforcement efforts and claiming ongoing threats in Los Angeles still necessitate troop support. ICE’s LA field director said National Guard presence remains critical to enforcement capabilities in the city, though the court filing failed to cite unrest in Riverside County, where the raid took place.
Bonta’s office has demanded further disclosures on Guard operations outside Los Angeles and questioned the continuing need for federalized military support, raising constitutional concerns about the scope and intent of Trump’s orders.
Germany Commits to Accelerated Defense Spending Ahead of NATO Summit
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz declared Tuesday that Berlin’s pledge to boost defense spending stems from its own national security interests, not from pressure to appease US President Trump.
Speaking before departing for the NATO summit in The Hague, Merz emphasized that Russia’s growing aggression threatens Europe’s security well beyond Ukraine.
At the summit, NATO’s 32 member states aim to finalize a new defense spending deal, with a compromise target of 3.5% of GDP for core military spending by 2035 and an additional 1.5% toward broader security needs, including cyber and infrastructure.
Trump has insisted on a minimum of 5% and raised concerns about US commitment to Article 5 if allies fall short.
Ahead of joining German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the NATO summit, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said it is “absolutely necessary” to spend more on defense and security. pic.twitter.com/mnpEKGXU75
— DW Politics (@dw_politics) June 24, 2025
Germany, Europe’s largest economy, announced it would reach the 3.5% defense spending goal by 2029, six years early, enabled by relaxed debt rules.
Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Germany is undergoing a historic transformation in prioritizing defense and would present that message clearly at the summit.
Since taking office in May, Merz has accelerated efforts to rebuild Germany’s long-neglected military, targeting the creation of Europe’s strongest conventional armed forces. Germany plans to recruit 11,000 new troops this year and is considering reinstating conscription.
Additionally, Germany is deploying a permanent military brigade to Lithuania to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank.
US Marine Sentenced for Sexual Assault in Okinawa, Renewing Tensions Over US Military Presence
A Japanese court sentenced US Marine Lance Cpl. Jamel Clayton, 22, of Ohio, to seven years in prison for sexually assaulting a woman in her 20s on Okinawa in May 2024.
The Naha District Court found Clayton guilty of choking and attacking the victim in Yomitan village. Judge Kazuhiko Obata ruled the victim’s anonymous testimony credible, despite Clayton’s denial of the charges. Prosecutors had sought a 10-year sentence.
Lance Cpl. Jamel Clayton, 22, of Ohio, testified for the first time on the fourth day of his trial at Naha District Court. He is accused of strangling and injuring an Okinawa woman, then 25, while attempting to sexually assault her in the home she shared with her then-boyfriend…
— Stars and Stripes (@starsandstripes) June 6, 2025
The case is one of several recent sexual assault incidents involving US service members on Okinawa, raising local anger and renewed concerns over the safety and oversight of American troops. Okinawa, home to 70% of US military facilities in Japan, has long protested the burden of hosting American forces, citing crime, noise, and environmental impacts.
Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani addressed the issue directly with Lt. Gen. Roger Turner, commander of the III Marine Expeditionary Force, urging better discipline and prevention measures. The conviction follows a broader outcry after reports that Japanese authorities initially withheld arrests in several assault cases under privacy concerns.
Amid mounting frustration, calls have intensified to revise the US-Japan Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), which grants the US military significant control over legal proceedings involving its personnel.
A Cabinet statement released Tuesday revealed Japanese prosecutors dropped over 300 criminal cases involving US service members between 2014 and 2024, including a 2020 sexual assault case in Okinawa.
Sources: News Agencies
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