Evening Brief: Russian Strikes Kill More Civilians in Ukraine as Zelenskyy Seeks NATO Backing, Britain to Buy F-35A Jets for Nuclear Role

Good evening, and welcome to SOFREP’s Evening Brief for Wednesday, June 25, 2025. Despite rising tensions in the Middle East, oil prices have plummeted amid a global oversupply. Iran suspends nuclear oversight, Gaza violence surges, and the US Air Force sharpens its war posture. NATO bows to Trump’s defense demands, the UK revives its airborne nuclear deterrent, and Russia intensifies strikes on Ukraine. Meanwhile, Mali’s junta tightens its grip, China issues warnings without action, and Congress targets Chinese AI in federal systems. Here’s what you need to know.

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Oil Prices Plunge Despite Iran Missile Strike on US Base as Global Supply Surges

Iran launched missiles at a US military base in Qatar on Monday, escalating tensions in the Middle East. Yet, US crude prices dropped more than 7% that day, followed by another sharp decline on Tuesday, marking one of the steepest sell-offs this year.

The cause: a global oil surplus driven by record US production and weakening global demand.

Despite the geopolitical volatility, gasoline prices at US pumps have remained largely unchanged, but analysts expect them to fall within days. The US national average for gas stood at $3.23 per gallon on Wednesday, significantly lower than last year’s $3.47 and far below the $5 peak in June 2022.

American oil production is at record levels, but companies are reducing drilling due to low prices. Active drilling rigs dropped to their lowest since 2021, with 554 rigs currently operating—a 19% year-over-year decline. Even President Trump’s call to “drill, baby, drill” is unlikely to shift the market dynamics.

Meanwhile, international producers, including OPEC+ and Canadian oil sands operations, are ramping up output. This increase in supply collides with stagnant demand growth. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), oil demand grew only 0.8% in 2023, and oil’s share of global energy demand dipped below 30% for the first time.

Electric vehicle (EV) adoption and efficiency gains in fossil fuel engines are contributing to the drop in oil demand. EVs accounted for 20% of global vehicle sales in 2023. Airlines have also cut travel projections amid trade tensions and economic uncertainty, further reducing demand for jet fuel.

The IEA reports that 80% of new global electricity generation last year came from renewables, with demand for natural gas rising 2.7% compared to oil’s 0.8% growth. US tech giants, including Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, are also investing in nuclear energy to power data centers, underscoring a broader shift toward alternatives.

Watch here: Oil markets are too well-supplied for price concerns to really worry investors, and strong momentum will likely keep driving stocks higher, Kathleen Brooks of XTB told Reuters as US stocks hit a historic high https://t.co/9Spgk9bWzs pic.twitter.com/RA0FGqFRTQ

— Reuters Asia (@ReutersAsia) June 25, 2025

In short, while the threat of conflict remains high, the world’s deep oil reserves, rising alternative energy use, and slowing demand continue to suppress oil prices.

Iran Moves to Suspend Cooperation with IAEA After Strikes on Nuclear Sites

Iranian lawmakers voted Wednesday to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) following US and Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities during a recent 12-day conflict.

State TV reported that 221 members of Iran’s 290-seat parliament backed the measure, with one abstention and no opposition.

The decision, if approved by the Guardian Council, would bar IAEA inspectors from accessing Iranian nuclear sites without clearance from the Supreme National Security Council. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused the IAEA of compromising its credibility by not condemning the attacks on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf announced on June 25 that the country will halt cooperation with the IAEA and accelerate its nuclear program.

Lawmakers approved a bill to suspend ties with the U.N. watchdog, pending final approval from Iran’s Supreme National… pic.twitter.com/ROKx2MEDut

— CGTN Europe (@CGTNEurope) June 25, 2025

The move comes after Israeli strikes on June 13 targeted key nuclear facilities and killed high-ranking military figures and nuclear scientists. Days later, the US launched strikes on Fordo, Isfahan, and Natanz nuclear sites.

Iran has condemned the IAEA for its silence throughout the attacks.

Lawmakers reportedly chanted “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” following the vote, signaling continued defiance amid heightened tensions.

Gaza Offensive Resumes: Israeli Troops Killed in Blast, 79 Palestinians Dead in One Day

Israel reported one of its deadliest days in Gaza in months, confirming the deaths of seven soldiers after a Palestinian militant detonated a bomb on their armored vehicle in Khan Younis.

The attack occurred Tuesday, prompting renewed Israeli military focus on Gaza after a 12-day war with Iran concluded under a fragile ceasefire. An eighth soldier was seriously wounded in a separate ambush claimed by Hamas.

At the same time, Gaza’s Health Ministry said Israeli airstrikes killed 79 Palestinians, including 33 individuals shot while attempting to reach food aid. Witnesses say Israeli forces have fired on crowds seeking humanitarian relief; Israel contends its troops issued warning shots at suspicious individuals.

Since the war began following Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, assault that killed 1,200 Israelis and led to 251 hostages being taken, over 860 Israeli soldiers have died. Gaza’s death toll has now exceeded 56,000 — the highest ever recorded in any Israeli-Palestinian conflict — with over half reportedly being women and children. More than 5,700 have been killed since Israel resumed its offensive in March after a two-month ceasefire collapsed.

Frustration is growing among Palestinians. Residents voiced anger that the Iran-Israel war ended in under two weeks while Gaza continues to suffer two years into a devastating campaign marked by famine, mass displacement, and destruction of civilian infrastructure.

WATCH | Al-Qassam Fighter Storms Israeli APC in Khan Younis, Kills 7 Soldiers in Close-Range Ambush

In a dramatic ambush captured on video, resistance fighters from Hamas’s military wing carried out a complex operation against two Israeli armored personnel carriers (APCs) near… pic.twitter.com/Ds135XnbuQ

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) June 25, 2025

Meanwhile, in east Jerusalem, Israeli forces fatally shot 66-year-old Zahia Al-Obeidi during a raid in the Shuafat refugee camp. Her husband said she posed no threat and was standing on their rooftop when shot. Israeli authorities claimed rioters attacked troops with rocks during the operation but are investigating the shooting.

Israel says it targets only Hamas militants and blames civilian casualties on the group’s operations in dense urban areas. The military claims to have killed over 20,000 Hamas fighters, though has not publicly substantiated those figures. Hamas has not confirmed its losses.

Top Air Force Enlisted Leader Declares: ‘We Exist to Kill People and Blow Sh– Up’

Chief Master Sergeant of the Air Force David Flosi delivered a blunt message to top noncommissioned officers last week, declaring that the Air Force’s fundamental mission is “to kill people and blow sh– up.”

The June 19 internal memo, obtained and reported by Military.com, emphasized readiness for war and came days before US airmen launched strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in Operation Midnight Hammer.

Flosi urged airmen to prepare mentally and physically for immediate deployment, referencing recent rapid mobilizations to Europe and the Middle East. He warned, “Any day could be the day,” hinting at the looming conflict.

Flosi’s tone aligns with a growing push from Air Force leadership to revive a warrior ethos across the force. Gen. David Allvin and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have called for stronger combat readiness and more rigorous physical standards. Flosi outlined plans to tighten fitness testing, including a possible shift to twice-yearly assessments, waist-to-height ratio measurements, and replacing the 1.5-mile run with a 2-mile requirement.

Our @usairforce projects combat power like no one else to afford @POTUS instant options in any scenario. Speed. Tempo. Precise Lethality. These are our bread and butter. As @secdef said, we’re prepared to do what our @DeptofDefense does best…fight and win, decisively! pic.twitter.com/h1ANu01xoJ

— General David Allvin (@OfficialCSAF) June 3, 2025

The Air Force is finalizing these changes after a 10-month review and in response to a March directive from Hegseth mandating a review of all service branches’ standards. An Air Force spokesperson acknowledged that recent post-COVID standards failed to adequately prepare airmen for modern combat.

Retired Chief Master Sgt. Eric Benken supported Flosi’s message but cautioned against overuse of such rhetoric. “That’s really what we do,” Benken said. “And look at what we just did.”

Britain to Buy F-35A Jets for Nuclear Role, Expanding Deterrent for First Time Since Cold War

Britain will purchase 12 F-35A fighter jets capable of deploying US-made B61 tactical nuclear weapons, marking its first air-based nuclear capability since 1998.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced the move at the NATO summit in The Hague, calling it the country’s largest nuclear deterrent expansion in a generation.

The £1 billion ($1.09 billion) purchase aims to diversify Britain’s nuclear posture, which currently relies solely on submarine-based Trident missiles. This new capability will allow the Royal Air Force to contribute dual-capable aircraft to NATO for nuclear missions.

The US will supply the B61 bombs, signaling a shift in burden-sharing as Washington retreats from its traditional leadership in European defense. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte praised the move as a “robust British contribution.”

Downing Street said the F-35A deal supports 20,000 domestic jobs and reflects Britain’s intent to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. The government also emphasized it must now “actively prepare” for potential war scenarios at home.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks after NATO summit https://t.co/FjsG3RBtcs

— Reuters (@Reuters) June 25, 2025

Britain’s last air-launched nuclear system was retired in 1998, and the last US nuclear weapons left the UK in 2008. This acquisition aligns the UK more closely with NATO partners that maintain land, sea, and air nuclear forces.

NATO Bows to Trump’s Demands on Defense Spending, Affirms Article 5 Commitment

NATO leaders agreed Wednesday to a major increase in defense spending, committing to targets long demanded by US President Donald Trump.

At a summit in The Hague, alliance members pledged to raise defense expenditures to 5% of GDP—3.5% on core military spending and 1.5% on broader security areas like cyber defense and infrastructure.

Trump hailed the outcome as a “great victory” and emphasized he hoped new spending would favor US-made military hardware. He reaffirmed America’s commitment to NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause, stating, “I stand with it. That’s why I’m here.”

Despite the public unity, tensions emerged behind the scenes. Trump criticized Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez for suggesting Spain could meet its NATO obligations without hitting the 5% target. Trump warned Spain’s economy could suffer and threatened a tougher US trade deal.

French President Emmanuel Macron raised concerns about US-EU trade tensions, arguing that escalating tariffs undermine allied cohesion and the ability to fund defense increases.

“We can’t say we are going to spend more and then, at the heart of NATO, launch a trade war,” Macron said.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte praised Trump for driving the new spending agreement, calling the alliance “stronger, fairer and more lethal.” He brushed off suggestions of excessive flattery toward Trump, saying their friendship speaks for itself.

The increased financial burden will be challenging for many European nations with stretched budgets. Nonetheless, the allies stood united in reaffirming NATO’s core mission and addressing growing security threats from Russia.

🚨 NEW — President Trump BLOWS NATO RESPONSIBILITY EXPECTATIONS OUT OF THE WATER, Announces “Hague Defense Commitment!”

“The NATO allies committed to dramatically increase their defense spending to that 5% of GDP, something that no one really thought possible. They said, you did… pic.twitter.com/QRbPJQp9Sj

— Townhall.com (@townhallcom) June 25, 2025

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended a pre-summit dinner but was excluded from the main session. He later held a one-on-one meeting with Trump.

The Kremlin condemned NATO’s defense boost, accusing the alliance of militarization and using Russia as a pretext to justify expanded military budgets.

Russian Strikes Kill 26 Civilians in Ukraine as Zelenskyy Seeks NATO Backing

Russian drones, missiles, and artillery killed at least 26 Ukrainian civilians and injured more than 200 in widespread attacks on Tuesday, Ukrainian officials reported.

The deadliest strike hit the central city of Dnipro, where a ballistic missile barrage killed 17 and wounded over 200, targeting civilian infrastructure including schools, hospitals, and a passenger train with 500 people on board. Dnipro’s mayor declared a day of mourning.

Additional Russian attacks killed four in the Kherson region and three in the Sumy region, including a 5-year-old boy. Authorities reported damage to residential neighborhoods, social services offices, and medical facilities.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, attending a NATO summit in The Hague, used the occasion to press for more Western military aid and stricter sanctions on Russia. He warned that Russia continues to use foreign-supplied components to build ballistic missiles and urged global action to block those supply chains.

After devastating massive aerial attacks on Dnipro & Kyiv 🇺🇦 in recent days, UNHCR & partners are on the ground with urgent support.

Affected families receive psychosocial aid, legal counseling, emergency shelter materials and are registered for emergency cash. pic.twitter.com/fKekWHH1qB

— UNHCR Ukraine (@UNHCRUkraine) June 24, 2025

Meanwhile, Russia said it intercepted 20 Ukrainian drones overnight, with three targeting Moscow. One drone struck a residential tower, injuring a man and briefly disrupting air traffic at two major Moscow airports.

Trump Meets Zelenskyy at NATO Summit, Signals Possible US Air Defense Support

US President Donald Trump met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the NATO summit Wednesday, highlighting increased alliance defense spending as a deterrent against future Russian aggression.

NATO members committed to boosting annual defense and security spending to 5% of GDP by 2035.

Trump said Europe “stepping up” would help prevent “future disasters” like the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and expressed hope for a resolution. He claimed Russian President Vladimir Putin “wants out” of the war, describing it as a “mess” for Moscow.

During their meeting, Zelenskyy proposed co-producing drones with US companies and acquiring American air defense systems. Trump acknowledged Ukraine’s urgent need for Patriot missile systems and indicated the US might make some available despite high demand from other allies, notably Israel.

I had a good meeting with @POTUS in The Hague.

I congratulated President Trump on the successful operation in the Middle East. It is important that the U.S. actions have weakened not only their nuclear program but also their drone production capabilities. We will continue to… pic.twitter.com/pzoaBSn0Yi

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 25, 2025

Zelenskyy affirmed that “Putin is definitely not winning” and emphasized continued military collaboration. While Ukraine is not a NATO member, it remained a central focus at the summit.

However, Zelenskyy was not invited into the main NATO session, as the Trump administration continues to oppose Ukraine’s membership bid.

The summit also saw the UK pledge 350 air defense missiles to Ukraine, funded by interest from frozen Russian assets. Meanwhile, Trump reiterated his belief that the war could have been avoided and criticized both Russian and Ukrainian leadership while avoiding specifics on a path to peace.

Mali’s Junta Pushes Law to Extend Goita’s Rule by Five Years

Mali’s military government approved a bill Wednesday granting junta leader Gen. Assimi Goita an additional five-year, renewable term beginning in 2025. The measure, adopted by the Council of Ministers, revises the country’s Transition Charter and now heads to the National Transitional Council for ratification.

Goita, who came to power after staging two coups in 2020 and 2021, has further consolidated control in recent months. In May, his regime dissolved all political parties amid growing dissent and a wave of activist kidnappings in the capital, Bamako. The move came shortly after a pro-democracy protest drew hundreds.

The new bill reflects recommendations from April’s national dialogue sessions, organized by the junta and widely boycotted by opposition parties. Originally, the military government pledged to hand power back to civilians by March 2024 but has since delayed elections indefinitely.

Mali remains mired in political instability and a worsening jihadi insurgency tied to al-Qaida and Islamic State affiliates, part of a broader pattern of coups and unrest across West and Central Africa. No date has been set for the next presidential election.

China Condemns Israel’s Strike on Iran but Avoids Military Involvement

China vocally condemned Israel’s recent attacks on Iran and called for de-escalation but stopped short of offering Tehran any material or military support. Despite its strategic partnership with Iran and aspirations for a greater global role, Beijing opted to remain on the sidelines, underscoring its risk-averse approach to the volatile Middle East.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi contacted counterparts in Russia, Iran, and other regional powers to urge calm. China also backed a draft UN resolution—alongside Russia and Pakistan—condemning strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and demanding an immediate ceasefire. However, the effort is likely to be blocked by the US.

Analysts say Beijing’s reluctance to go beyond diplomatic rhetoric reflects a careful balancing act.

China depends heavily on Iranian oil, with estimates suggesting 80–90% of Iran’s oil exports go to China. But it also seeks to avoid provoking US sanctions or jeopardizing broader economic ties in the region.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with Iranian FM Seyed Abbas Araghchi on Saturday.

China explicitly condemns Israel for violating Iran’s sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity. China firmly opposes the brutal attacks targeting Iranian officials that… pic.twitter.com/m90mhpzYBF

— Lin Jian 林剑 (@SpoxCHN_LinJian) June 15, 2025

China’s presence in the Gulf remains commercial, not military. Its muted reaction, limited to calls for dialogue and reaffirmation of Iran’s sovereignty, exposes the limits of its power projection and highlights a reluctance to shoulder hard-power risks.

Beijing continues to prioritize energy security and regional stability over military entanglements, even as it promotes itself as a global peace broker.

US Congress Moves to Ban Chinese Artificial Intelligence from Federal Agencies

A bipartisan group of US lawmakers introduced legislation Wednesday to ban Chinese artificial intelligence systems from use in federal agencies, marking a significant move in the intensifying tech competition between the US and China.

Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), chair of the House Select Committee on China, called the Artificial Intelligence (AI) race “a new Cold War,” with global power dynamics hinging on who leads in AI development.

Lawmakers and expert witnesses warned that AI developed under authoritarian regimes, like China, threatens US national security and democratic values.

The proposed bill, backed by Reps. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.), Darin LaHood (R-Ill.), and Sens. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) and Gary Peters (D-Mich.), would prohibit federal use of AI systems developed by foreign adversaries. It includes a directive for the Federal Acquisition Security Council to identify AI technologies that pose a risk. Exceptions would be made for research and counterterrorism.

A bipartisan group of lawmakers is preparing to introduce legislation that would ban U.S. executive agencies from using artificial intelligence models developed in China, including those from the prominent firm DeepSeek. pic.twitter.com/gDvqyO2oCM

— NTD (@TelevisionNTD) June 25, 2025

The legislation follows the rise of Chinese AI firms such as DeepSeek, whose performance now rivals US leaders like OpenAI and Google. Witnesses told Congress that the US must tighten export controls on advanced chips critical to AI development, citing loopholes that still allow China to obtain restricted hardware.

Despite the US currently leading in top-tier AI models, China is closing the gap fast, particularly in AI research output and patents, according to Stanford’s 2025 AI Index. Lawmakers agreed that safeguarding AI infrastructure is essential to US technological and geopolitical dominance.

Sources: News Agencies