Morning Brief: Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds as Trump Pushes Talks and Claims Nuclear Success

Good morning! Here’s your SOFREP Morning Brief for Thursday, June 26, 2025. We bring you the latest in global defense and security: Tensions flared in the West Bank as Israeli settler violence left three Palestinians dead. The Israel-Iran ceasefire remains intact but shaky, with Tehran executing more alleged spies and cutting off nuclear oversight. Trump doubled down on his Iran strike claims despite conflicting intel, while NATO leaders rallied around his defense spending push. From drone warfare in the Russia-Ukraine war to deadly protests in Kenya and North Korea’s tourism gamble—here’s what you need to know to start your day.

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Israeli Settler Attack in West Bank Triggers Clash, Israeli Forces Kill Three Palestinians

Violence erupted in the West Bank on Wednesday after dozens of Israeli settlers attacked the Palestinian town of Kafr Malik, northeast of Ramallah.

The confrontation ended with Israeli forces killing three Palestinians and injuring seven others, according to the Palestinian health ministry.

The Israeli military reported that settlers set fire to property, prompting the deployment of Israeli forces and police. The situation escalated into stone-throwing, and the military claimed Palestinians opened fire.

Israeli troops responded with live fire. An Israeli army officer sustained light injuries. Authorities arrested five Israeli suspects involved in the attack.

Footage from the scene showed at least two vehicles set ablaze, though Reuters could not independently verify the video. The incident adds to mounting tensions in the West Bank, where violence has sharply increased in recent months.

Three Palestinians were killed and seven others were injured in an attack by illegal Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank village of Kafr Malik pic.twitter.com/k0QK2sph4Q

— TRT World (@trtworld) June 26, 2025

Earlier the same day, Israeli troops shot and killed a Palestinian boy during a raid in Al-Yamun, a town west of Jenin, according to the Palestinian Red Crescent.

Senior Palestinian official Hussein al-Sheikh accused the Israeli government of inciting regional instability and called for urgent international intervention to protect Palestinians.

Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds as Trump Pushes Talks and Claims Nuclear Success

Israel and Iran observed a fragile ceasefire for the second straight day Wednesday following 12 days of war.

US President Donald Trump, who brokered the truce, declared the conflict over and claimed US airstrikes had obliterated Iran’s nuclear program. Trump said US and Iranian officials would hold talks next week, although Tehran has not confirmed any upcoming negotiations.

Iran’s parliament voted to fast-track legislation suspending cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), citing the agency’s failure to condemn the US-Israel attacks. The IAEA and its director Rafael Grossi urged Iran to resume cooperation immediately, warning of lost oversight on sensitive nuclear materials.

Despite mutual blame, both sides hinted at openness to diplomacy. US envoy Steve Witkoff said indirect dialogue with Iran had resumed, and a comprehensive peace deal might be possible. Iran’s Foreign Ministry, however, emphasized national security and accused Washington of sabotaging diplomacy.

Israel’s Mossad spy agency released a rare video crediting US intelligence and Israeli covert operations for enabling precision strikes deep inside Iran, including on military commanders and nuclear scientists. Israeli and American officials claimed this had rolled back Iran’s nuclear ambitions by years.

David Barnea, the Mossad chief, thanks agents, the IDF, and the CIA for the collaboration during the 12-day Operation Rising Lion, which achieved ‘goals that initially seemed imaginary’ against Iran pic.twitter.com/qudlLo4TuB

— i24NEWS English (@i24NEWS_EN) June 25, 2025

Iran reported 606 dead and 5,332 wounded. A Washington-based rights group placed the toll higher, with over 1,000 Iranians killed. In Israel, at least 28 people died and more than 1,000 were injured. Tehran also executed six alleged Israeli spies, including three on Wednesday.

Trump Defends Iran Strike as “Devastating,” Dismisses Intelligence Doubts

President Donald Trump rejected early US intelligence assessments that suggested American strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities caused only limited damage, insisting instead that the operation delivered a crippling blow.

“This was a devastating attack,” Trump said Wednesday, claiming Iran’s nuclear capabilities were “completely and fully obliterated.”

At the NATO summit in the Netherlands, Trump doubled down on his statements, stating that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and military leaders would soon present “irrefutable” proof of the strikes’ effectiveness.

The White House circulated statements from Israeli officials and Iran’s foreign ministry acknowledging significant damage to nuclear sites but stopped short of confirming Trump’s sweeping claims.

President Trump reads Israel assessment on U.S. strikes: “The devastating U.S. strike on Fordow destroyed the site’s critical infrastructure and rendered the enrichment facility totally inoperable.” pic.twitter.com/jgLkRoDUGU

— CSPAN (@cspan) June 25, 2025

Despite a Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) report indicating only a temporary setback for Iran’s program, Trump dismissed it as incomplete and accused the media of undermining military efforts.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe supported the administration’s position, citing intelligence that key facilities were destroyed and would take years to rebuild.

Trump compared the strike to the atomic bombings that ended World War II, declaring the “12-day war” over. He said negotiations with Iran could resume but were no longer necessary, asserting the Islamic Republic was too damaged to rebuild its program. Iran insists its nuclear activities remain peaceful.

Analysts and former officials like Leon Panetta and Jeffrey Lewis said it was too soon to make definitive assessments, pointing out that conclusions about damage would take weeks to verify. The administration now plans to restrict the flow of classified intelligence to Congress following leaks about the assessment, a move expected to spark backlash from lawmakers.

NEW: A leaked, low-confidence US intelligence assessment found that the US and Israeli strikes caused “moderate to severe” damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, but that they did not “collapse” the facility. The destruction of the centrifuges and equipment inside does not… pic.twitter.com/HSA6xASGkI

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) June 25, 2025

Meanwhile, US officials continue investigating whether enriched uranium was moved before the strikes. Trump said it likely wasn’t, citing the difficulty of quickly relocating such material.

Classified briefings for Congress are expected later this week.

Trump’s FY2026 Defense Budget Pushes Missile, Drone Tech; Cuts Ships, Navy Jobs

President Donald Trump’s proposed $892.6 billion defense and national security budget for fiscal year (FY) 2026 prioritizes high-tech missile systems, drones, and troop pay increases, while scaling back procurement of ships, fighter jets, and Navy civilian jobs.

The flat defense budget, unchanged from the current fiscal year, aims to deter Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific and rebuild the US defense industrial base. While the plan includes a 3.8% pay raise for troops, it also slashes spending by retiring costly legacy systems and reducing the Navy’s civilian workforce by 7,286.

Trump’s request trims the number of Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter jets from 68 under the Biden administration’s FY2025 proposal to just 47. It also funds only three new Navy warships, excluding key vessels like Virginia-class submarines, which are expected to be handled in a separate appropriations bill.

The Pentagon continues to prioritize munitions, with expanded funding for long-range precision weapons like the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile – Extended Range and Long-Range Anti-Ship Missiles, critical for Pacific operations. However, it reduces procurement of the Precision Strike Missile, a replacement for the Army Tactical Missile (ATACMS) used in Ukraine.

Small drone investment also increases, reflecting their battlefield success in Ukraine as affordable and effective tools of modern warfare.

.@SecDef says the Pentagon’s 2026 budget “provides a historic level of funding for military readiness, putting our warfighters and their needs first.”

– $25 billion in Golden Dome for America
– $62 billion to modernize and sustain nuclear forces
– $3.5 billion for the F-47
– $6… pic.twitter.com/DJFeRGfLJ1

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) June 12, 2025

Trump’s Golden Dome missile defense shield, his hallmark initiative, is largely funded through a separate budget request, with an additional $25 billion included in the House-approved “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” a sweeping $150 billion defense package still pending final passage.

Congressional Republicans have already begun reshaping the budget, with the House Appropriations Committee proposing to raise the F-35 purchase to 69 jets, one more than Biden’s 2025 ask, indicating likely legislative pushback to Trump’s cuts in traditional procurement areas.

NATO Coddles Trump to Preserve Alliance Unity, Avoids Tough Talk on Ukraine and Russia

At this year’s NATO summit in The Hague, alliance leaders bent over backwards to court US President Donald Trump, sidestepping contentious issues like Ukraine and Russia to focus on the themes most likely to resonate with the American leader.

The summit centered on Trump’s demand for increased defense spending, culminating in an agreement to raise NATO’s target to 5% of GDP—well above the long-standing 2% goal.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte openly praised Trump, with NATO leaders echoing his language and slogans, including a suggestion from Lithuania’s president to adopt “Make NATO Great Again” as a motto. Trump, in turn, softened his tone on the alliance, calling it a partnership worth protecting, except for Spain, which he criticized for not committing to the spending hike.

President Trump: “In a very historic milestone this week, the NATO allies committed to dramatically increase their defense spending to that 5% of GDP.” pic.twitter.com/DSdqX9ErR5

— CSPAN (@cspan) June 25, 2025

The summit’s final communiqué was drastically shorter than previous years, deliberately avoiding references to the war in Ukraine, Russia’s invasion, or Ukraine’s path to NATO membership. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was excluded from the main summit and met separately with Trump.

The charm offensive included royal treatment: Trump stayed at the Dutch king’s palace and dined in opulence with other leaders. The light, stage-managed agenda allowed NATO to avoid rifts but left key strategic questions unresolved, particularly how the alliance will handle long-term Russian aggression if the US shifts posture.

Critics warned the summit papered over growing transatlantic divides, particularly as Trump signals a more conciliatory stance toward Moscow and reduced support for Kyiv. Former NATO officials voiced concern the alliance missed a chance to send a strong message to the Kremlin, and that future disagreements on Russia could test NATO’s cohesion.

Analysts now await the results of Trump’s upcoming defense posture review, which may signal troop reductions in Europe. European officials remain nervous about the pace and scope of any such changes.

EU Leaders to Tackle Russia Sanctions, Trump Tariffs, and Mideast Tensions at Brussels Summit

The heads of the European Union (EU)’s 27 member states will convene Thursday in Brussels to debate tighter sanctions on Russia, strategies to avoid new US tariffs, and how to influence growing conflicts in the Middle East.

Fresh off the NATO summit, where they agreed to ramp up defense spending and minimize rifts with US President Donald Trump, EU leaders now face internal divisions on energy, trade, and foreign policy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will join the summit via videoconference, following his meeting with Trump. While NATO appeared to downgrade Ukraine’s priority this week, the EU remains focused on countering Russian aggression and is weighing an 18th sanctions package, including a contested oil price cap.

Trump’s threats of punitive tariffs, especially toward Spain, have triggered alarm in Brussels. France’s President Emmanuel Macron openly criticized the US president for waging a trade war against allies.

27 leaders gather in Brussels today to discuss economic and security challenges.

But the biggest question is: Does the EU have what it takes to go at it alone as the US continues to turn away from Europe?

Follow our live blog for every twist and turn: https://t.co/m61ZIa1nqC pic.twitter.com/N8ihcXmZNA

— POLITICOEurope (@POLITICOEurope) June 26, 2025

Middle East instability and Iran’s nuclear ambitions are also high on the EU’s agenda. Leaders are seeking to restart diplomatic engagement with Tehran, while remaining split on how to respond to Israel’s conduct in Gaza.

Defense and security will dominate the summit’s final statement, which will guide the EU’s strategic posture for the next four months and reflect growing political shifts across the continent.

Russian Air Defenses Down Waves of Drones Targeting Moscow and Border Regions

Russian air defense forces shot down two drones targeting Moscow early Thursday, according to Mayor Sergei Sobyanin.

Authorities temporarily suspended operations at Vnukovo International Airport, and other airports along the Volga River also implemented restrictions.

The attack was part of a broader drone offensive. Voronezh Governor Alexander Gusev said over 40 drones were downed in his border region throughout the day.

Ukrainian strike drones approached the capital of Russia, Moscow, tonight.

Russian air defenses activated in the area. Explosions reported in the towns of Dedovsk and Zelenograd, Moscow Oblast. pic.twitter.com/5qhjYYLhfb

— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@Archer83Able) June 25, 2025

In Bryansk, local officials confirmed seven more drones were intercepted.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported that 18 drones were destroyed over a three-hour period across multiple central and southern regions earlier in the evening. Authorities are investigating drone debris for further intelligence.

Deadly Protests Erupt Across Kenya Over Police Brutality and Governance Failures

At least eight people died and over 80 were hospitalized during nationwide protests in Kenya on Wednesday, as citizens rallied against police brutality, corruption, and poor governance.

Human rights groups reported more than 400 injuries and over 60 arrests in demonstrations that swept through 23 of Kenya’s 47 counties.

The protests marked the one-year anniversary of anti-tax demonstrations that left 60 dead and 20 still missing. In Nairobi, police blockaded access to Parliament and the president’s office with razor wire, clashing violently with protesters using tear gas, batons, and live rounds.

Thousands participated in coordinated protests across major cities, including Mombasa and Kisumu, calling for President William Ruto’s resignation. Tensions escalated further following the recent death of a detained blogger and the close-range shooting of a protester.

Thousands have taken to the streets in Kenya to mark a year since antigovernment protests culminated in the storming of Parliament, despite fears of violence from state-backed gangs and police.

— in pictures https://t.co/oSEmzGYp7p pic.twitter.com/gR8v3fYmno

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) June 25, 2025

Despite President Ruto’s appeal for calm, protesters remained defiant. Demonstrators used social media to organize and commemorate last year’s victims, while local media published names and faces of the deceased under the banner “A luta Continua.”

Authorities banned live broadcast of the events, prompting backlash from rights organizations. Analysts warned that the government’s hardline stance is fueling youth frustration. Although Ruto previously dissolved his Cabinet and withdrew a controversial tax bill, many ministers were reappointed and new taxes were introduced later—intensifying public outrage.

North Korea Opens Coastal Tourist Zone, Aims to Revive Tourism Industry

North Korea will officially open the Wonsan-Kalma coastal tourist zone next Tuesday, marking what leader Kim Jong Un called “the proud first step” in launching a new era for the regime’s tourism sector.

State media described the site, located on the country’s east coast, as a showcase project capable of accommodating nearly 20,000 domestic tourists, offering beaches, sports facilities, restaurants, and recreational amenities.

Kim presided over a high-profile ribbon-cutting ceremony earlier this week, hailing the project as “one of the greatest successes this year,” according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

The Wonsan-Kalma zone has long been a centerpiece in Kim’s strategy to boost North Korea’s struggling economy through tourism development.

pic.twitter.com/bGcFO13jFb

— DD Geopolitics (@DD_Geopolitics) June 26, 2025

Despite the launch, KCNA did not say when the country will reopen to foreign tourists. North Korea’s borders remain largely closed since COVID-19 restrictions began in 2020. While Pyongyang has resumed limited tourism with Russia since February 2024, it has yet to restart Chinese group tours, which previously accounted for over 90% of all visitors.

Earlier this year, a small number of international tourists were briefly allowed entry, but foreign travel agencies confirmed in March that tours were once again paused.

North Korea plans to expand tourism infrastructure elsewhere in the country, according to KCNA, but remains cautious about lifting broader travel restrictions.

Sources: News Agencies