SOFREP Morning Brief: Syria’s President Sharaa Skips Arab League Summit, India Warns of Future Retaliation Despite US-Brokered Ceasefire with Pakistan

Good day! Get your Tuesday started with SOFREP’s morning brief, bringing you the latest in defense and global affairs for May 13, 2025. Syrian President Sharaa skipped the Arab League Summit due to backlash over his militant past, sending his foreign minister instead. Trump signed orders to build a veteran housing center in LA, expand VA care, and force drugmakers to lower prices or face caps. Russia rejected a 30-day Ukraine ceasefire but agreed to Istanbul peace talks, possibly attended by Trump. Poland shut down Russia’s consulate over suspected arson ties. Modi said India’s military pause with Pakistan isn’t permanent and warned of future retaliation despite a US-brokered ceasefire.

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Syria’s President Sharaa Skips Arab League Summit

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa will not attend the Arab League Summit in Baghdad this weekend, Syrian state media confirmed Monday. Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani will lead Syria’s delegation instead. The summit is expected to focus on Gaza reconstruction and the broader Palestinian issue.

Sharaa’s absence follows political fallout in Iraq over his potential return.

A former Al-Qaeda fighter and ex-prisoner in Iraq, Sharaa’s presence drew sharp criticism from Shi’ite factions who blame him for past attacks. At least 57 Iraqi Shi’ite lawmakers petitioned the government to bar his attendance, while rumors of a possible arrest warrant circulated, though Iraqi officials denied any legal action.

Sharaa, once an Al Qaeda commander in Iraq, was jailed for over five years before returning to Syria and founding Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the group that ultimately ousted Bashar al-Assad last year. Since taking power, Sharaa has strengthened ties with Sunni Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Qatar but remains cautious in dealings with Shi’ite-majority nations like Iraq, where Iranian influence remains strong.

While Shi’ite politicians opposed his visit, several Sunni leaders welcomed Iraq’s invitation as a step toward reintegrating Iraq with the Arab world and reducing Tehran’s grip.

“There are elements… working against Iraq’s progress to reclaim its rightful place within the Arab community,” said Sunni MP Raad al-Dahlaki.

Analysts view Iraq as the final significant stronghold in Iran’s Axis of Resistance, following Syria’s regime change and setbacks for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Concerns over Sharaa’s safety also reportedly factored into his decision to stay away, as both Iraqi critics and Syrian security officials weighed potential threats.

Trump Signs Executive Order to Create Center for Homeless Veterans, Expand VA Care

President Donald Trump signed an executive order last Friday, May 9, to establish a National Center for Warrior Independence in Los Angeles and expand healthcare access for veterans nationwide.

The initiative targets chronic homelessness among veterans and longstanding issues within the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA).

The order calls for the construction of a new facility on the West Los Angeles VA Medical Center campus to provide housing and services for up to 6,000 homeless veterans by January 1, 2028. The 388-acre campus was originally donated in 1888 for housing disabled veterans but has long faced legal challenges due to leases with private tenants, including UCLA and private companies.

Trump’s order redirects the property’s use to its original purpose—supporting veterans.

The center will offer housing, addiction treatment, job training, and reintegration programs. Trump has mandated that a development plan be submitted within 120 days.

VA Secretary Doug Collins supported the move, calling past use of the land “decades of mismanagement.” Homeless veteran advocates, including Iraq War veteran Rob Reynolds, praised the decision as a moral imperative.

California Governor Gavin Newsom also voiced support, highlighting the state’s homelessness crisis and committing $3.3 billion in funds for new housing and treatment options.

The order also addresses broader VA healthcare reforms. It directs the VA to explore building a full-service medical center in New Hampshire—currently the only state in the continental US without one—and expand access to care through extended office hours and telehealth services.

These efforts build on prior VA “access sprints” from 2023–2024 that increased appointments by 11% and reduced wait times across several specialties. The new order instructs the VA to assess making these changes permanent.

Trump Orders Drugmakers to Cut Prices or Face Government Action

President Donald Trump signed an executive order Monday giving pharmaceutical companies 30 days to voluntarily lower prescription drug prices in the United States or face government-imposed pricing limits.

The directive empowers Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to negotiate new drug prices. If negotiations fail, Kennedy will craft a rule linking US drug prices to those in other countries—a model Trump described as a “most favored nation” approach.

“We’re all going to pay the same,” Trump said, referencing lower European drug prices as a benchmark. The move comes as the federal government seeks to cut drug spending in Medicare and Medicaid, which together cover nearly 150 million Americans and spend billions annually on prescription medications.

The order’s practical impact remains unclear, especially for privately insured Americans. Experts warn consumers are unlikely to see immediate relief.

Industry Pushback and Political Resistance

The pharmaceutical lobby, led by PhRMA CEO Stephen J. Ubl, condemned the executive order, calling it a threat to medical innovation and patient access.

“Importing foreign prices from socialist countries would be a bad deal for American patients,” Ubl said.

Industry leaders argue the move would undercut investments in research and development.

Trump’s plan also faces skepticism within his own party. Senate Majority Leader John Thune warned the policy would be “fairly controversial” if pushed through Congress instead of by executive order.

Trump, flanked by senior health officials including CMS administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz and FDA commissioner Dr. Marty Makary, blamed foreign governments for exploiting US drug pricing and threatened investigations and increased imports to pressure the industry. He said the companies profit “mostly from America” and vowed to “do the right thing.”

With Congress divided and industry resistance strong, Trump’s latest executive order may serve more as a political signal than a swift solution to high drug costs. Nonetheless, it marks a renewed push by the former president to confront an industry he once accused of “getting away with murder.”

Russia Rejects Ceasefire But Agrees to Peace Talks as Drone Strikes Hit Ukraine

Russia launched over 100 Shahed and decoy drones at Ukraine overnight, Ukraine’s air force reported Monday, just hours after Moscow effectively rejected a US- and European-backed call for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Despite the rejection, the Kremlin signaled willingness to participate in face-to-face peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul later this week.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy challenged Russian President Vladimir Putin to meet him in Turkey on Thursday.

The Kremlin has not confirmed who will represent Russia at the talks. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated Russia’s openness to a long-term peace settlement but warned that ultimatums are “unacceptable.”

2/ Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 12, 2025: https://t.co/OwVuIrnEQh pic.twitter.com/cm1xS64E9s

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) May 12, 2025

US President Donald Trump expressed optimism about the planned talks and said he is “thinking about flying over” from the Middle East to attend.

Zelenskyy welcomed the idea, stating Ukraine would appreciate Trump’s presence and support for direct negotiations with Putin.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has held separate calls with Zelenskyy, Putin, and Trump, described the talks as a new “window of opportunity” for peace and voiced support for Trump’s diplomatic efforts. Erdogan blamed “war barons” for derailing past peace talks in 2022, which Turkey had hosted.

The US and European leaders are ramping up pressure on Moscow, threatening further sanctions if Russia refuses to halt hostilities. French, German, and Swedish officials echoed the demand for an unconditional ceasefire before negotiations can proceed. The UK hosted senior European diplomats Monday to strategize against Russian aggression, while Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan expressed hope for a compromise that could break the deadlock.

Russia’s invasion has killed tens of thousands of soldiers and over 10,000 Ukrainian civilians. The war has displaced millions and left Russia occupying about one-fifth of Ukraine.

Poland Shuts Down Russian Consulate Over Suspected Kremlin-Linked Arson

Poland’s Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski on Monday ordered the closure of the Russian Consulate in Krakow, citing Moscow’s alleged involvement in a major arson attack that destroyed a shopping center in Warsaw last year.

The move comes amid heightened regional concern over Russian covert operations targeting NATO’s eastern flank.

Authorities linked the May 12, 2024, fire at the Marywilska 44 shopping complex to Kremlin-sponsored sabotage. The budget marketplace housed roughly 1,400 vendors, many from Warsaw’s Vietnamese community. No casualties were reported, but the incident caused significant financial and social damage.

“This was a huge fire… completely unacceptable,” Sikorski said. “So the Russian Consulate will have to leave. And if these attacks continue, we’ll take further action.”

Poland’s national prosecutor’s office also charged two Ukrainian nationals, identified only as Daniil B. and Oleksander V., for cooperating with the arsonists. Officials believe the suspects worked under the direction of Russian operatives.

Polish Foreign Minister @radeksikorski has announced on X that he is withdrawing consent for the Russian consulate in Krakow, following a year-long investigation that revealed Russian secret services were behind a massive fire that nearly destroyed a Warsaw shopping center in May… pic.twitter.com/mTBe6hYRg7

— TVP World (@TVPWorld_com) May 12, 2025

The Kremlin denied any involvement. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov labeled the accusations “groundless” and said Warsaw’s decision would further damage already poor diplomatic relations.

“Poland is choosing hostility against us,” he said.

The closure in Krakow follows the 2023 shuttering of the Russian Consulate in Poznan over similar sabotage allegations. This leaves only one Russian diplomatic outpost in Poland, located in Gdansk.

The action adds to growing fears in Europe over Russian subversive activities. Lithuania recently accused Russia of a similar arson attack at an IKEA store in Vilnius.

NATO’s eastern members, including Poland and the Baltic states, continue to raise alarms over Moscow’s destabilization efforts across the region.

India Warns of Future Retaliation Despite US-Brokered Ceasefire with Pakistan

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated Monday that India has only “paused” military action and will retaliate “on its own terms” if faced with another terror attack. His remarks came following a US-brokered ceasefire between India and Pakistan after days of escalating military confrontation sparked by a deadly attack on Indian tourists in Kashmir.

Modi rejected broader dialogue with Pakistan, emphasizing that future talks would focus solely on terrorism and the status of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir.

“Terror and talks can’t go together. Nor can terror and trade,” he said, without acknowledging President Trump’s offer to mediate.

The ceasefire took effect over the weekend, marking the first night without cross-border firing along the Line of Control (LoC) and the international border. Senior military officials from both sides held a hotline conversation Monday to assess compliance and discussed reducing troop deployments in forward areas.

India accused Pakistan of backing the militants who massacred 26 Indian tourists in Kashmir last month.

In response, Indian forces struck nine targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir, which they claimed were linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba. India reported killing over 100 militants and up to 40 Pakistani soldiers. Pakistan denied the accusations, stating its forces killed 40–50 Indian soldiers and shot down five Indian jets during retaliatory strikes.

SOFREP could not independently verify the battlefield claims.

Both countries reopened airspace and resumed normal airport operations. Civilians displaced by shelling along the border began returning home as the ceasefire held.

VIDEO | PM Modi (@narendramodi) addresses nation on Operation Sindoor:

“India will not tolerate any form of nuclear blackmail. We will take decisive action against terrorist bases operating under the guise of such threats. There will be no distinction between… pic.twitter.com/32uvPMSk4G

— Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) May 12, 2025

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the ceasefire was accepted “in the spirit of peace” but warned Islamabad would not tolerate violations of its sovereignty. Pakistan’s military echoed that position, stating it would not be the first to break the truce.

India’s military remains on high alert. Air Chief Marshal AK Bharti stated that all Indian airbases and defense systems remain fully operational and prepared for further missions if necessary. He clarified India’s targets were terrorist infrastructure, not Pakistan’s military or civilian population.

Sources: News Agencies