SOFREP Morning Brief: Netanyahu Rejects Permanent Ceasefire Despite Hostage Release; Ukraine Finalizes US Minerals Deal, Eyes Reconstruction Fund

Hello and Good Morning! Start your Wednesday with SOFREP’s morning brief, featuring the top defense and global affairs stories for May 14, 2025. Here’s a quick roundup for today’s morning headlines: Netanyahu rejected a permanent Gaza ceasefire despite a hostage release, vowing to escalate Israel’s offensive. The US secured a ceasefire with Yemen’s Houthis after heavy strikes. Burkina Faso’s junta leader, Traore, remains popular despite rising violence. Canada’s PM Carney reshuffled his Cabinet to shift US and energy policy. Ukraine finalized a US minerals deal to fund reconstruction. France and allies warned of new Russia sanctions if no Ukraine ceasefire is reached. Germany arrested three Ukrainians over a suspected Russian-linked sabotage plot. India denied Trump’s claim that trade deals influenced its ceasefire with Pakistan.

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Netanyahu Rejects Permanent Ceasefire Despite Hostage Release, Vows to Escalate

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ruled out ending the war in Gaza, even if a hostage deal is reached, following the release of Israeli-American soldier Edan Alexander. His stance complicates ongoing ceasefire talks and widens the divide with US President Donald Trump, who had hoped the release would advance diplomatic progress.

Netanyahu declared Israel would escalate military operations, stating any ceasefire would be temporary and aimed at retrieving more hostages before resuming the mission to “destroy Hamas.”

Israeli strikes on Tuesday hit two Gaza hospitals, killing at least eight and wounding dozens. The Israel Defense Forces claimed Hamas was operating from beneath the targeted facilities.

Israel attacks Gaza’s European Hospital — in pictures https://t.co/ffbclBb5Jk pic.twitter.com/KDaFJIMeqX

— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) May 14, 2025

Alexander’s release, negotiated directly between Hamas and the Trump administration, bypassed Israel and sparked criticism of Netanyahu. Families of hostages accused him of endangering lives by continuing the war. US envoys met with families and traveled to Qatar to pursue further negotiations, signaling possible progress.

Gaza’s humanitarian crisis deepens as Israel’s blockade, enforced since March, has triggered famine risks. The World Health Organization (WHO) reports 57 child deaths from malnutrition and warns nearly 71,000 children could suffer in the coming months.

Netanyahu reaffirmed support for a Trump-backed plan to relocate Palestinians from Gaza, claiming over 50% would leave if given the chance. The proposal faces strong opposition from Palestinians and Arab states.

Since Hamas’s October 2023 attack that killed 1,200 people, Israel’s response has killed over 52,800 Palestinians and displaced 90% of the enclave’s population, according to Gaza health authorities.

US Secures Ceasefire with Houthis After Relentless Bombing Campaign and Intelligence Breakthrough

The US reached a surprise ceasefire with Yemen’s Houthi forces on May 6, following intelligence reports indicating the Iran-backed group sought an exit after 52 days of sustained American airstrikes.

US officials said Houthi leaders began reaching out to regional allies in early May, signaling readiness to negotiate.

US President Donald Trump, aiming to show progress before his Middle East trip, acted swiftly on the intelligence. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth led urgent White House meetings, and envoy Steve Witkoff brokered the deal through Omani intermediaries.

Trump announced the Houthis had agreed to halt attacks on US ships, saying, “They said please don’t bomb us anymore and we’re not going to attack your ships.”

Since November 2023, the Houthis launched hundreds of drone and missile attacks in the Red Sea, claiming solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. The US responded with over 1,100 strikes, resulting in high costs—over $1 billion in munitions, seven MQ-9 drones shot down, and two lost fighter jets. A key turning point came with the April 17 strike on the Ras Isa fuel terminal, killing 74 and crippling Houthi operations.

Crews embarked on USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) and USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) resupply at sea and operate 24/7, targeting Iran-backed Houthi terrorists within Houthi controlled areas of Yemen.#HouthisAreTerrorists pic.twitter.com/TgT1dKEVcr

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) May 2, 2025

Iran reportedly encouraged the Houthis to negotiate as Tehran engages the US over its nuclear program. While the Houthis agreed to the ceasefire, their attacks on Israel have continued. Analysts warn the group may recover quickly and that the truce’s durability is uncertain.

US military leaders had anticipated an eight-month campaign, but Trump’s team opted for an aggressive and accelerated path. Despite degrading Houthi capabilities, the ceasefire excludes Israel and may not prevent future flare-ups, as Iranian proxies often see US and Israeli actions as intertwined.

Burkina Faso’s Capt. Ibrahim Traore Gains Youth Appeal Amid Worsening Security Crisis

As Burkina Faso reels from escalating violence by both jihadist militants and government forces, junta leader Capt. Ibrahim Traore remains a rising figure in pan-Africanist circles, particularly among Africa’s youth.

While visiting Moscow for Russia’s World War II commemoration, Traore appeared on Russian state media promoting independence from the West and self-reliance—a message that continues to resonate across the continent.

At 37, Traore is Africa’s youngest head of state. Since taking power in a 2022 coup, he has promised to end Burkina Faso’s long-running insurgency and harness its mineral wealth for citizens’ benefit. However, data shows that violence has intensified under his rule.

According to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), conflict-related deaths more than doubled to over 7,200 in the past year, and over 60% of the country is now outside government control. At least 2.1 million people are displaced, and nearly 6.5 million rely on aid.

Despite worsening conditions, Traore’s popularity surged following an alleged coup attempt and US accusations of gold reserve misuse. His administration has cut ties with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and France, aligning instead with military-run neighbors Mali and Niger and increasing cooperation with Russia.

Analysts attribute Traore’s appeal to a mix of youthful charisma, revolutionary rhetoric, and Russian-backed propaganda, amplified by dissatisfaction with traditional African leadership and Western-style democracy. Critics argue his influence is more symbolic than substantive, with little progress on security or economic stability. Still, supporters view him as a figurehead for a new wave of African resistance against foreign control and elite corruption.

Carney Unveils Major Canadian Cabinet Shakeup, Signals Shift in US Relations and Energy Policy

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a sweeping Cabinet reshuffle Tuesday, appointing Anita Anand as the new foreign minister in a move that underscores his government’s shift toward redefining Canada’s foreign and economic posture.

Anand, formerly defense minister, replaces Mélanie Joly, who becomes industry minister.

Carney, who replaced Justin Trudeau earlier this year and won election last month, retained François-Philippe Champagne as finance minister and Dominic LeBlanc as US trade minister amid an ongoing trade war with the United States.

Framing his leadership as a break from the past, Carney pledged to confront President Donald Trump’s hostile posture toward Canada while rejecting the decades-long model of deep US-Canada integration. He said Canadians gave his government a mandate to establish a new economic and security relationship with the US.

Over 10 ministers were dropped from the Cabinet, including former defense minister Bill Blair. David McGuinty was named to the defense post, while former Goldman Sachs Canada CEO Tim Hodgson took over natural resources. Carney, a former Goldman Sachs executive himself, vowed to make Canada an energy “superpower” through large-scale infrastructure projects.

New additions also include former journalist Evan Solomon as minister of artificial intelligence, a newly created role. Women continue to hold half of the Cabinet posts, maintaining gender parity from Trudeau’s administration.

Carney stated the new Cabinet is designed to drive bold policy changes. King Charles III will outline the government’s priorities in a speech to Parliament on May 27.

Ukraine Finalizes US Minerals Deal, Paves Way for Reconstruction Investment Fund and Weapons Access

Ukraine has completed all procedural steps to implement a minerals exploitation deal with the United States, which includes the launch of a joint Reconstruction Investment Fund, First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko announced Tuesday.

The agreement, promoted by US President Donald Trump, gives the US preferential access to future Ukrainian mineral projects and establishes a fund to support Ukraine’s recovery over the next decade.

Svyrydenko confirmed that certification of the completed process was handed to interim US Chargé d’Affaires Julie Davis.

Today, Ukraine moves one step closer to the European Union.

We have now finalized all internal procedures required to begin negotiations on Cluster 1. The Government has adopted detailed reform Roadmaps on justice, public administration, and democratic governance—along with… pic.twitter.com/9Cq4Mo3xI1

— Yulia Svyrydenko (@Svyrydenko_Y) May 14, 2025

The deal follows intense negotiations and a heated Oval Office exchange between Presidents Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Trump. Ukraine’s parliament ratified the agreement last week after Svyrydenko signed it in Washington.

Zelenskyy praised the final version, calling it a substantial improvement over earlier drafts that had drawn domestic criticism.

Ukraine views the deal not only as a major investment channel but also as a path to unlock more US military aid—particularly additional Patriot air defense systems. The agreement also affirms Ukraine’s aspirations to join the European Union.

Macron, European Leaders Push for New Russia Sanctions Amid Ceasefire Standoff

French President Emmanuel Macron announced Tuesday that France supports imposing new sanctions on Russia within days if Moscow refuses to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine.

Macron, speaking on national television, identified financial services and the oil and gas sectors as key targets and confirmed coordination with European partners.

His comments align with those of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who warned of a “significant tightening of sanctions” if Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to reject ceasefire calls.

France’s foreign minister confirmed the European Commission has been tasked with drafting measures in these areas.

Britain, France, Germany, and Poland jointly warned on Saturday that Russia would face further punitive action if it did not agree to a 30-day ceasefire. Putin responded by proposing direct negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul on May 15, a move supported by US President Donald Trump, which undercut the European pressure campaign.

EU diplomats note that after 16 previous sanction rounds, reaching consensus among all 27 member states for stronger measures is becoming increasingly difficult.

Germany Arrests Three Ukrainians Over Suspected Russian-Linked Sabotage Plot

German authorities have arrested three Ukrainian nationals on suspicion of acting as foreign agents tied to a sabotage plot involving explosive-laden parcels, federal prosecutors announced Wednesday.

Two suspects, identified as Vladyslav T. and Daniil B., were detained over the weekend in Germany, while the third, Yevhen B., was arrested in Switzerland on Tuesday.

Prosecutors allege the men had contact with individuals connected to Russian state institutions and planned acts of arson and the procurement of explosives.

Authorities said the suspects are strongly suspected of participating in a sabotage campaign, with links to incendiary packages that caught fire while transiting Europe—a threat German businesses were warned about in August 2023.

German and Swiss authorities have arrested three Ukrainian nationals—on suspicion of planning sabotage attacks on behalf of Russian intelligence services. The men allegedly prepared explosive or incendiary packages intended for dispatch from Germany to Ukraine, targeting freight… pic.twitter.com/v81uDjOCOI

— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) May 14, 2025

India Denies Trump’s Claim of Trade Role in Ceasefire with Pakistan

India rejected US President Donald Trump’s claim that trade incentives influenced the recent ceasefire with Pakistan.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said no trade discussions occurred during talks between Indian and US leaders last week, including calls involving Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Vice President JD Vance, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Trump had claimed he offered trade deals to encourage India and Pakistan to de-escalate following their military standoff. He told reporters that he used trade as leverage to push both countries toward ceasefire, which was agreed to on Saturday after days of missile and drone strikes across borders.

Trump on India-Pakistan: “We I think convinced them to let’s have peace and let’s go and make trade deals. If we can make trade deals we like that much better than nuclear weapons.” pic.twitter.com/2zQfMHe0ng

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) May 14, 2025

The conflict erupted after India launched airstrikes on alleged militant targets in Pakistan, accusing them of orchestrating a massacre of 26 tourists in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Pakistan denied involvement, and the escalation triggered global calls for restraint.

Trump also said he offered to mediate the Kashmir dispute, but India rejected the offer, reiterating its position that Kashmir is a bilateral issue with Pakistan.

Meanwhile, Pakistan expelled an Indian diplomat on Tuesday over alleged misconduct, deepening diplomatic tensions. Both nations had previously reduced their diplomatic missions, continuing a pattern of reciprocal expulsions.

Sources: News Agencies