SOFREP Evening Brief: US-Backed Gaza Aid Group Sparks Concerns as Launch Nears, Russia and Ukraine to Resume Peace Talks in Istanbul Without Top Leaders

As Thursday comes to a close, catch up with SOFREP’s evening brief, featuring key defense and global affairs stories for May 15, 2025. Here’s a quick rundown of tonight’s headlines: Israeli airstrikes killed over 80 people in Gaza as Netanyahu vows to continue the war until Hamas is destroyed. A US-backed aid group plans deliveries but faces UN criticism over legality and neutrality. In Congo, the government accuses Rwanda-backed M23 rebels of massacres and mass abductions, with no independent verification yet. A US GAO report says Sen. Tuberville’s military promotion block hurt families but didn’t affect readiness. Estonia claims Russia is ready to use force to protect its shadow oil fleet after a NATO airspace breach. Russia and Ukraine will hold talks in Istanbul, but Putin will not attend, drawing Western criticism. The US is pushing NATO allies to boost defense spending to 5% of gross domestic product (GDP). Latvia’s intelligence agency warns Russian saboteurs may pose as tourists or hikers near key sites and urges the public to report suspicious behavior. Japan grounded its T-4 training jets after a fatal crash; an investigation is underway.

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Israeli Airstrikes Kill Over 80 in Gaza as Blockade, Hospital Closures Deepen Crisis

Overnight Israeli airstrikes on Gaza killed at least 82 people, including 54 in Khan Younis and 13 in Jabaliya, amid an intensifying military campaign that has now killed more than 53,000 Palestinians since October 2023, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry.

The dead in Khan Younis included a journalist from Al Araby TV and 11 members of his family. Another airstrike hit a complex containing a mosque and a medical clinic in the north.

The strikes come as President Donald Trump tours the Middle East but skips a stop in Israel. Hopes that his visit might lead to a ceasefire or renewed aid have faded as Israel continues its blockade on Gaza for a third consecutive month. Aid restrictions, ongoing since March 2, have brought northern Gaza to the brink of famine, with nearly half a million facing starvation.

Israel also struck Gaza’s European Hospital this week, putting the territory’s only cancer treatment facility out of service. The hospital’s remaining 200 patients were evacuated after two airstrikes reportedly targeting a Hamas command post beneath the facility.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to escalate military operations to destroy Hamas. Human Rights Watch warned that Israel’s actions are nearing extermination and urged global powers to act under the Genocide Convention. Israel denies committing genocide and blames Hamas for hoarding aid.

Gaza’s Health Ministry says 119,998 people have been wounded in the conflict, with nearly all of Gaza’s population displaced. Hamas reportedly holds 58 hostages from its October 7 attack on Israel, with 23 believed to still be alive.

US-Backed Gaza Aid Group Sparks Concerns as Launch Nears

The newly formed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, backed by the US, announced plans to begin delivering aid in Gaza before month’s end, following key agreements with Israeli officials.

Led by US military veterans, former aid coordinators, and security contractors, the group aims to deliver 300 million meals within its first 90 days, temporarily using existing distribution networks while building new sites approved by Israel.

The foundation’s launch raises alarm among international aid agencies, including the United Nations (UN), which say the group lacks transparency, legal clarity, and the capacity to uphold humanitarian principles like neutrality and independence.

UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher criticized the initiative as falling short of international standards, warning it could hinder effective aid delivery and divert attention from proven aid channels.

After 10 weeks of aid being blocked from entering Gaza, the entire population is at risk of famine.

Watch as @UNReliefChief tells the Security Council that life-saving assistance is waiting at border crossings, and humanitarians are desperate to deliver that aid. pic.twitter.com/rWpL5TPNot

— United Nations (@UN) May 15, 2025

Israel has blocked food, fuel, and medicine to Gaza for weeks, demanding a new distribution system it can control. The foundation claims Israel agreed to expand aid access and explore ways to reach civilians unable to travel to distribution points.

Aid groups remain skeptical, calling the initiative a potential violation of humanitarian law and expressing concerns over militarized aid control amid Gaza’s worsening crisis. Israel’s UN mission has not commented on the foundation’s announcement.

Congo Accuses Rwanda, M23 Rebels of Mass Atrocities in Eastern Offensive

Congolese authorities have accused Rwanda’s military and the M23 rebel group it supports of committing widespread atrocities in eastern Congo between May 10 and 13.

According to Congo’s interior ministry, the rebels murdered 107 civilians, abducted over 4,000 men and boys, and carried out hundreds of summary executions, rapes, and acts of torture. The victims were accused by M23 of ties to the Congolese Army and its allied militias.

The ministry also reported looting, severe movement restrictions, and attacks on medical facilities.

Rwanda and M23 have not responded to the allegations, which remain unverified by independent sources.

The latest accusations come days after M23 displayed hundreds of captured men in a Goma stadium, claiming they were Congolese soldiers or militia members armed to provoke conflict. The conflict escalated in January with M23’s seizure of Goma and later Bukavu, killing roughly 3,000 people and stoking fears of regional war.

UN experts estimate 4,000 Rwandan troops are supporting M23. The group claims to defend Congo’s Tutsi minority, while Rwanda accuses Congo of harboring Hutu militants linked to the 1994 genocide. Congo denies allegations that the Hutu-led FDLR militia is integrated into its military.

GAO: Tuberville’s Promotion Hold Disrupted Military Families but Didn’t Impact Readiness

A Government Accountability Office (GAO) report released Thursday confirmed that Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s 10-month blockade of senior military promotions in 2023 disrupted the lives of military families but did not affect the readiness of US military units.

Tuberville, R-Ala., placed a procedural hold on over 400 general and flag officer promotions to protest the Biden administration’s policy covering travel for service members seeking reproductive health care. The hold forced the Senate to individually vote on each nomination instead of approving them in bulk.

The GAO found that while unit-level readiness remained intact, families were significantly impacted. Some service members were stranded between duty stations, missed school enrollments for their children, lost spousal job opportunities, or paid out-of-pocket for temporary housing and storage.

The Defense Department created stopgap roles for some affected officers, but many still faced prolonged instability.

The report also noted the hold created leadership gaps, affected pay, delayed retirements, and disrupted promotion timelines. For example, delays in O-7 assignments left the Army with a shortage of candidates for O-8 promotion boards in 2024.

Tuberville ended the blockade in December without securing policy changes. He maintains the hold had “zero effect” on readiness, while the GAO emphasized the hardship it imposed on military families.

The report emerges as the Pentagon prepares to implement Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s directive to reduce the number of four-star officers by at least 20%, raising new concerns about leadership gaps and promotion bottlenecks.

Estonia Says Russia Ready to Defend Shadow Oil Fleet with Military Force

Estonia warned that Russia is prepared to use military force to protect its shadow fleet of tankers circumventing international sanctions.

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said a Russian fighter jet violated NATO airspace after Estonia’s navy intercepted an unflagged, uninsured vessel—identified as the Jaguar—in Estonian waters.

NATO aircraft were scrambled in response.

Tsahkna, speaking at a NATO meeting in Turkey, linked the Russian government directly to the shadow fleet and urged heightened air patrols over the Baltic Sea.

A Russian Su-35 fighter jet has intruded Estonian airspace, disrupting an Estonian Navy operation to detain the Russian shadow fleet vessel JAGUAR.

The sanctioned oil tanker was heading to a Russian port under the flag of Gabon.

The tanker got away after Russia’s aggression pic.twitter.com/tZM9dtPBc2

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) May 14, 2025

The shadow fleet comprises old tankers registered under opaque ownership in non-sanctioning nations and flagged in jurisdictions like Gabon and the Cook Islands. Some ships belong to Sovcomflot, Russia’s state-owned shipping company.

These vessels are used to dodge a $60-per-barrel oil price cap enforced by Ukraine’s allies and are also suspected of transporting stolen Ukrainian grain. The European Union (EU) sanctioned 70 suspected shadow fleet vessels in February and is expected to sanction more in the coming days.

Russia and Ukraine to Resume Peace Talks in Istanbul Without Top Leaders

Russia and Ukraine will hold their first direct peace talks in three years on Friday in Istanbul, but expectations remain low after Russian President Vladimir Putin declined Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s offer for a face-to-face meeting.

Zelenskyy is sending a high-level delegation led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, while the Russian side will be led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky and several lower-level officials.

Zelenskyy criticized the Russian delegation as lacking decision-makers, calling it a “theater prop,” and said Ukraine’s goal is to seek a ceasefire and de-escalation. He framed the effort as a signal to US President Donald Trump that Ukraine is committed to ending the war.

Trump has been involved in diplomatic efforts and emphasized that only a direct meeting between him and Putin could lead to a breakthrough. Putin’s absence may prompt new international sanctions, according to European leaders.

The UN estimates more than 12,000 Ukrainian civilians and tens of thousands of soldiers on both sides have died. Russian forces are reportedly preparing for a new offensive, and fresh shelling killed at least five civilians and wounded 29 in eastern Ukraine in the past 24 hours.

Talks are being branded by the Kremlin as a “restart” of the failed 2022 Istanbul negotiations. However, Ukraine and Western officials view Russia’s current demands as inflexible ultimatums.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials will be in Istanbul to consult with both delegations. NATO members and European leaders continue to press Russia for a ceasefire, warning of further sanctions if it obstructs peace efforts.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot both blamed Putin for blocking a diplomatic solution, emphasizing Russia’s responsibility for starting and prolonging the war.

NATO Debates US Push for Major Defense Spending Hike Amid Global Security Shifts

At a NATO foreign ministers meeting in Antalya, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pushed allies to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2032, citing rising threats from Russia, terrorism, and China.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte backed the call, warning that Russia could rebuild its military within 3–5 years after the Ukraine war.

The proposed figure includes 3.5% for traditional defense budgets and 1.5% for infrastructure and cybersecurity.

The push comes ahead of the June NATO summit in the Netherlands, where President Donald Trump is expected to reinforce demands that European allies shoulder more defense responsibilities.

The United States is fully committed to a strong and relevant NATO. We need our Allies to share the same commitment by increasing defense spending to ensure our Alliance is prepared to face any threat. pic.twitter.com/6so5KGUTkY

— Department of State (@StateDept) May 15, 2025

While 22 of NATO’s 32 members currently meet the alliance’s previous 2% benchmark, several—including Canada, Italy, and Spain—still fall short. Trump has repeatedly questioned US commitments to underfunding allies, adding pressure on Europe to step up.

European leaders acknowledged the urgency. Lithuania’s foreign minister warned that Russia is rapidly regenerating its forces, while the UK pledged to reach 2.5% by 2027 and 3% by 2029.

Experts also pointed to Europe’s dependency on US capabilities and a fragmented defense industry as major obstacles to strategic autonomy.

Rubio also confirmed meetings in Istanbul with Turkish and Ukrainian officials as Russia and Ukraine prepare for direct peace talks. He stressed that only a Trump-Putin meeting could yield a breakthrough. Additionally, Rubio met with Syria’s foreign minister, supporting the easing of US sanctions and praising Syria’s openness to peace with Israel.

The summit in June is expected to address NATO’s posture toward Russia, Ukraine’s future with the alliance, and growing concerns over China—though NATO’s direct role in the Indo-Pacific remains undefined. The Trump administration has removed Ukraine’s membership bid from the agenda and remains undecided on inviting Zelenskyy to the meeting.

Latvia Warns of Russian Saboteurs Disguised as Tourists or Hikers

Latvia’s Defence Intelligence and Security Service (MIDD) issued a stark warning Wednesday that Russian saboteurs may be infiltrating the country under the guise of lost tourists or unassuming hikers.

The alert, part of MIDD’s annual report, outlines how civilians can identify potential spies operating near military or critical infrastructure.

Signs include mismatched or military-style clothing, disheveled appearances, unusual questions to locals, and possession of tactical gear such as radios, maps, and medical kits. Operatives may also pose as aid workers or linger in remote areas without interest in nature.

The advisory follows a rise in sabotage and arson incidents across Europe, widely attributed to Russian intelligence efforts—allegations the Kremlin denies.

MIDD warned that saboteurs could also target “socially significant individuals” or attempt to stir unrest against host governments.

The agency urged the public to remain alert but avoid direct confrontation, advising citizens to report suspicions to local police or military units. Latvia joins regional allies, including Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Poland, in boosting public readiness amid growing security threats linked to Russia.

Japan Grounds Training Fleet After T-4 Jet Crash

Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) has grounded its entire fleet of T-4 training aircraft following a crash that occurred shortly after takeoff on Wednesday.

The 36-year-old T-4 jet, carrying two service members, disappeared from radar minutes after departing Komaki Air Base and crashed into Iruka Pond, roughly six miles northeast of the base in Aichi Prefecture.

Emergency inspections are now underway for all 196 T-4 jets across JASDF bases. Operations will remain suspended until safety checks are completed and the crash cause is determined, JASDF Chief of Staff Hiroaki Uchikura said.

The jet had climbed to 4,000 feet before it experienced trouble. No distress signal was sent, and air traffic control received no emergency contact. Witnesses reported a loud noise at the time of the crash, and search crews later recovered debris, crew helmets, and life-saving gear near the reservoir.

The aircraft lacked both a voice recorder and flight data recorder, hampering the investigation.

Defense Minister Gen Nakatani has announced plans to equip the fleet with proper recording systems moving forward.

The incident adds to a series of defense aviation accidents and comes amid Japan’s rapid military buildup to counter China’s regional influence, sparking concern over potential trade-offs between weapon funding and safety standards.

Sources: News Agencies