Good evening! SOFREP’s Evening Brief is here, wrapping up your Friday with the latest updates on defense and global affairs for May 30, 2025. Tonight’s headlines at a glance: United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan rocket delays have pushed the US military to shift key launches to SpaceX, which now leads in national security missions. Israel warned Hamas to accept a US-backed ceasefire or face destruction, as Gaza casualties continue to rise. Sudan’s RSF seized key towns while a cholera outbreak spreads. ISIS claimed new attacks in Syria, its first since Assad’s fall. Russia unveiled a Stalin statue, reigniting legacy debates. Ukraine will resume peace talks with Russia, but demands a clear proposal. Macron urged Europe-Asia alliances to counter instability and warned China over North Korea’s role in Ukraine.
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Vulcan Delays Push SpaceX to Forefront of US National Security Launches
United Launch Alliance’s (ULA) persistent delays with its Vulcan rocket have eroded its reliability, forcing the US military to shift key national security missions to SpaceX.
On Friday, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 is set to launch the GPS III-7 mission—originally assigned to ULA—under the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 2 contract. This marks the second such reassignment due to Vulcan’s repeated schedule slips and partial certification status.
ULA, a Boeing-Lockheed Martin joint venture, was expected to dominate NSSL Phase 2 with 60 percent of mission assignments using Vulcan by 2022. Instead, the rocket’s debut was delayed by nearly four years due to the COVID-19 pandemic, supplier issues, and a booster failure during its second flight.
ULA has completed just one national security mission from its 26 awarded under the contract, and that was with a legacy Atlas V, not Vulcan.
In contrast, SpaceX has maintained rapid launch capability, already completing 64 Falcon 9 launches this year, including 43 from Florida’s Space Coast.
Good evening! SOFREP’s Evening Brief is here, wrapping up your Friday with the latest updates on defense and global affairs for May 30, 2025. Tonight’s headlines at a glance: United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan rocket delays have pushed the US military to shift key launches to SpaceX, which now leads in national security missions. Israel warned Hamas to accept a US-backed ceasefire or face destruction, as Gaza casualties continue to rise. Sudan’s RSF seized key towns while a cholera outbreak spreads. ISIS claimed new attacks in Syria, its first since Assad’s fall. Russia unveiled a Stalin statue, reigniting legacy debates. Ukraine will resume peace talks with Russia, but demands a clear proposal. Macron urged Europe-Asia alliances to counter instability and warned China over North Korea’s role in Ukraine.
—
Vulcan Delays Push SpaceX to Forefront of US National Security Launches
United Launch Alliance’s (ULA) persistent delays with its Vulcan rocket have eroded its reliability, forcing the US military to shift key national security missions to SpaceX.
On Friday, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 is set to launch the GPS III-7 mission—originally assigned to ULA—under the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 2 contract. This marks the second such reassignment due to Vulcan’s repeated schedule slips and partial certification status.
ULA, a Boeing-Lockheed Martin joint venture, was expected to dominate NSSL Phase 2 with 60 percent of mission assignments using Vulcan by 2022. Instead, the rocket’s debut was delayed by nearly four years due to the COVID-19 pandemic, supplier issues, and a booster failure during its second flight.
ULA has completed just one national security mission from its 26 awarded under the contract, and that was with a legacy Atlas V, not Vulcan.
In contrast, SpaceX has maintained rapid launch capability, already completing 64 Falcon 9 launches this year, including 43 from Florida’s Space Coast.
Targeting Friday, May 30 for Falcon 9 to launch the @SpaceForceDoD’s GPS III-7 mission from Florida →https://t.co/QqEOsLw7fc pic.twitter.com/GQweU272S3
— SpaceX (@SpaceX) May 29, 2025
US Space Force officials say the recent reassignment demonstrates the need for fast-turnaround national security launches.
The latest GPS satellite, built by Lockheed Martin, offers significantly improved accuracy and jamming resistance and is part of an accelerated launch schedule.
ULA’s delays have also weakened its position in the newly awarded NSSL Phase 3 contracts. SpaceX will now handle 52 percent of missions (28 of 54), while ULA gets 35 percent and newcomer Blue Origin secures 13 percent.
US Air Force officials have warned ULA and others to “re-establish baselines” and rebuild trust to remain competitive.
ULA’s next national security launch using Vulcan, USSF-106, is not expected until at least July, further stressing the company’s troubled transition from Atlas and Delta rockets. In the meantime, ULA is preparing a commercial Atlas V launch for Amazon’s Project Kuiper in June, as SpaceX continues to dominate US launch operations.
Israel Issues Ultimatum to Hamas as Ceasefire Talks Hang in the Balance
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Hamas on Friday to accept the US-backed ceasefire proposal or face annihilation, as fighting in Gaza continues with heavy civilian casualties.
The proposal, submitted by US envoy Steve Witkoff, outlines a 60-day ceasefire, phased hostage releases, and humanitarian aid delivery in exchange for the release of over 1,100 Palestinian prisoners.
Hamas has yet to respond formally and is consulting with other Palestinian factions.
The ultimatum follows continued Israeli airstrikes, including a deadly hit on a tent in Khan Younis that killed 13 people, eight of them children. In total, 27 were killed on Friday, with at least 72 killed the previous day, according to Gaza hospital officials.
Israeli air attacks hit homes in Gaza City on Friday, forcing families to flee through smoke and rubble.
The attack came as Hamas is reviewing a new US-backed ceasefire proposal but says that its current terms would result in “the continuation of killing and famine” in Gaza. pic.twitter.com/Lckw9OdtlH
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) May 30, 2025
Over 54,000 have died in Gaza since the war began, mostly women and children, per Gaza’s health ministry.
US President Donald Trump said a ceasefire agreement is “very close” and could be finalized soon. However, skepticism remains in Gaza, where civilians face famine, siege, and relentless bombardment.
The war, triggered by Hamas’ October 7 attack that killed 1,200 Israelis and took 250 hostages, continues with no end in sight, as both sides harden their positions in the stalled negotiations.
Sudan’s Paramilitary Force Captures Key Towns in Sudan as Cholera Crisis Escalates
Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced the capture of two strategic towns—Dibeibat in South Kordofan and Al-Khoei in West Kordofan—deepening their control over the region amid the ongoing war with the Sudanese military.
Residents confirmed RSF presence in Dibeibat, a critical link between North and South Kordofan.
The RSF stated the gains mark a significant consolidation of their territorial hold in western and southern Sudan.
At least six people have been killed in a suspected drone attack by the Rapid Support Forces on a hospital in southern Sudan, say officials and rights advocates https://t.co/nWwkuyN7J3 pic.twitter.com/8HMDg4zcyD
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) May 30, 2025
The country remains divided: the army controls central, eastern, and northern regions, while the RSF dominates the west, particularly Darfur, and parts of the south. The two-year civil war has killed tens of thousands and displaced over 13 million people, creating what the United Nations calls the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.
Meanwhile, a cholera outbreak in Khartoum is worsening. The capital, already devastated by war and suffering from collapsed infrastructure, saw 70 deaths and over 2,100 new cases reported within two days this week.
The UN and Sudanese health authorities report conflicting figures, but agree on the growing severity. Since August, over 65,000 cases and 1,700 deaths have been recorded across 12 states.
#Cholera in #Khartoum is ⬆ amid attacks on infrastructure, population movement & safe water shortage.
🟢@WHO delivered 22.3 MT of cholera & other supplies to support outbreak response
🟢Cholera vaccinations commenced on 27 May in the most affected locality, Jebel Awlia.#Sudan pic.twitter.com/W7tnmJdkD7— WHO Sudan (@whosudan) May 28, 2025
Health officials and aid groups warn Sudan is on the brink of a public health disaster, citing the war’s destruction of sanitation and water systems.
The World Health Organization (WHO) has delivered 22 metric tons of medical supplies, and vaccinations have begun in the hardest-hit areas. Aid workers fear the rainy season will worsen the crisis by restricting access.
Complicating the crisis, Sudan faces US sanctions over alleged chemical weapons use by its military. The Sudanese government denies the claims and has formed a committee to investigate.
ISIS Claims First Attack on Syrian Army Since Assad’s Fall, Strikes US-Backed Forces
The Islamic State (ISIS) claimed responsibility for two bomb attacks in southern Syria, including one targeting Syrian government forces in Sweida province—marking the group’s first acknowledged assault on the army since Bashar al-Assad’s fall in December.
In its statement, ISIS said the May 22 blast hit a regime vehicle, killing or wounding seven soldiers.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported one civilian killed and three soldiers injured.
IS*IS has claimed its first direct attack on the Syrian army since the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime. pic.twitter.com/kpgem8gaOJ
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) May 30, 2025
In a separate claim, ISIS said it also attacked US-backed Free Syrian Army fighters in the same region this week, killing one and injuring three. Neither the Assad successor government nor the FSA has commented.
The attacks signal a dangerous resurgence of ISIS activity in southern Syria, where the group had previously focused on hit-and-run operations in the northeast. The Assad-era regime was replaced by President Ahmad al-Sharaa, a former jihadist commander who fought against ISIS and now governs post-Assad Syria.
ISIS was territorially defeated in Syria in 2019, but its sleeper cells remain active. In January, Syrian intelligence reportedly foiled an ISIS bombing plot targeting a Shiite shrine near Damascus.
The renewed ISIS activity comes just weeks after President Trump met al-Sharaa in Saudi Arabia, pledging to work toward lifting US sanctions and urging Syria to recognize Israel, expel foreign militants, and help suppress ISIS’s resurgence.
Russia Unveils Stalin Monument in Moscow Metro Amid Legacy Revival Push
Russian authorities unveiled a new monument to Soviet dictator Josef Stalin at Moscow’s Taganskaya subway station, reigniting controversy over his brutal legacy.
The sculpture, showing Stalin surrounded by smiling workers and children, marks the 90th anniversary of the Moscow Metro, which was built during his rule. It replaces an earlier tribute removed during de-Stalinization efforts following his death in 1953.
Public reaction has been mixed. Some praised Stalin for turning the Soviet Union into a superpower, while others protested, highlighting the millions who died or were imprisoned under his regime.
Pro-democracy activists from Society.Future posted quotes from Russian leaders, including President Vladimir Putin, condemning Stalin’s crimes.
The unveiling follows recent symbolic moves by the Kremlin, including renaming Volgograd Airport to Stalingrad and temporarily reviving the name for Victory Day events.
Analysts say the push to rehabilitate Stalin aligns with the Kremlin’s broader effort to justify authoritarian rule, suppress dissent, and legitimize the war in Ukraine by drawing parallels to World War II.
Ukraine Agrees to Resume Direct Peace Talks with Russia, Awaits Kremlin’s Ceasefire Proposal
Ukraine confirmed it will attend a second round of direct peace talks with Russia in Istanbul next week Monday, but Kyiv insists it must first receive the long-promised Russian memorandum outlining Moscow’s terms for ending the war.
Presidential adviser Andrii Yermak said Ukraine is ready for “constructive discussion,” but warned that talks would be pointless without clear Russian proposals.
Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha reiterated Ukraine’s openness to a temporary ceasefire of any duration—30, 50, or 100 days—and said Kyiv wants to end the war this year. He held a joint press conference with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, who suggested a future meeting between Presidents Zelenskyy, Putin, and Trump could follow if talks progress.
⚡ FM Sergey Lavrov: Russia’s delegation stands ready to present its memorandum [on achieving a sustainable settlement] to Ukraine’s delegation and to provide all necessary clarifications during the second round of resumed direct talks in Istanbul next Monday, 2 June.… pic.twitter.com/uT1EQEnNwv
— Russian Embassy, UK (@RussianEmbassy) May 28, 2025
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed Russia will attend the June 2 meeting. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated the Kremlin would present its position on ending what it calls the “root causes” of the conflict.
Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov cautioned that continued ambiguity from Moscow would make the talks “empty,” despite Ukraine having already submitted its terms.
The first round of talks in May produced no breakthrough but resulted in the largest prisoner swap of the war—1,000 captives exchanged on each side. Turkish officials view that success as proof negotiations can deliver results.
NEW: Russian officials continue to dictate the terms and timing of peace negotiations with Ukraine and are attempting to obfuscate the current state of negotiations. Russian officials are setting conditions to falsely accuse Ukraine of delaying negotiations.
MORE ⬇️
Russia is… pic.twitter.com/FukXST1nie
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) May 30, 2025
Fidan emphasized the urgency of peace, stating, “Either we continue the war or secure lasting peace before year’s end.”
Macron Calls for Europe-Asia Coalitions to Counter Global Instability, Warns China on North Korea’s Role in Ukraine
French President Emmanuel Macron urged European and Asian nations to form “new coalitions of action” to help reset the global order and counter rising nuclear risks, US-China tensions, and the threat of supply chain disruptions.
Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on Friday, Macron emphasized that the post-non-alignment era requires strategic cooperation among capable nations to preserve a rules-based international system.
Macron’s remarks come amid concerns over growing divisions between Washington and Beijing and uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, which could reshape trade dynamics.
The French leader reaffirmed France’s alliance with the US and acknowledged strategic competition with China, while calling for a pragmatic, balanced approach to international cooperation.
🇫🇷 🇪🇺 🗣️ #French President Emmanuel #Macron on Friday called for the building of a “new special relationship” between the #EU and countries in the #IndoPacific region in a keynote address at the #ShangriLa security forum in #Singapore.
For more ➡️ https://t.co/j2MwS6kcDu pic.twitter.com/nBhh3yWD1V
— FRANCE 24 English (@France24_en) May 30, 2025
In a pointed message during his keynote address, Macron warned China against allowing North Korea to support Russia’s war in Ukraine. He said such involvement could prompt NATO to expand its engagement in Asia—something Beijing wants to avoid.
“If China doesn’t want NATO being involved in Southeast Asia… they should prevent DPRK to be engaged on European soil,” Macron stated.
DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) is North Korea’s official name.
Macron and US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth joined leaders and defense officials at the high-level forum, which focuses on Chinese assertiveness, the Ukraine war’s global fallout, and rising conflict risks in Asia.
Hegseth reiterated that US policies aim to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, declaring, “We seek no conflict with anybody, including the Communist Chinese.”
NEW | China-Taiwan Weekly Update, May 30, 2025
Key Takeaways + Full Assessment ⬇️(1/2)
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) condemned the US Golden Dome space defense project for undermining global stability, despite the fact that the PRC has similarly invested in developing… pic.twitter.com/AV02mihHsV
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) May 30, 2025
China, under President Xi Jinping, has ramped up pressure on Taiwan through regular military incursions and currently has a carrier positioned near the island. Despite the forum’s significance, China sent only a mid-level delegation, headed by Maj. Gen. Hu Gangfeng, to participate in discussions on maritime security, amid global concerns over Beijing’s aggressive fishing and naval activities.
Sources: News Agencies
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