President Trump’s Envoy Speaks About Ukraine Negotiations

The Envoy

Everybody’s seen The Godfather. Mario Puzo and Francis Ford Coppola’s how-to manual on organizations, negotiation, and the exercise of power. Everybody’s got a favorite line, a favorite character. I like Tom Hagen, the Godfather’s adopted son. The lawyer he sent to conduct negotiations. “Always be polite, never make a threat.” One way or another, deals got done.

Steve Witkoff is President Trump’s Tom Hagen. He got the Gaza Ceasefire done. It broke down after Phase I, but nobody thought a ceasefire was even possible. Neither side wanted one. In the event, Witkoff got Bibi Netanyahu on the phone and said, “Sign it.” The deal was done.

This is the full video of Tucker Carlson’s interview with Steve Witkoff. The first part of the interview is introductory and, in large part, about the Middle East and Gaza negotiations. The Ukraine-Russia discussion begins at 0:55:00 into the interview:

Witkoff met with President Vladimir Putin for three hours to discuss broad issues and lay the ground for President Trump’s second call with the Russian leader. This part of the interview summarizes the envoy’s account of the conversation and the results. Some of those were only firmed up following the call between the two presidents.

At 00:57:00 Witkoff says, “There’s Kursk, where Ukrainian troops are surrounded – fact.” He also says there are many similar situations everywhere along the front.

At 00:57:55 Witkoff says the agreement may need to be ratified by the US Senate. This is a crucial point. That gives it the status of a treaty and may be the only assurance the Russians may accept. It may require 2/3 approval by the Senate and the Republicans only have a slim majority.

At 00:58:32 Witkoff specifically talks about the agreement between Russia and Ukraine to implement “an energy infrastructure ceasefire,”  a mutual 30-day ceasefire on energy infrastructure only.

Zelensky, after-the-fact, is now trying to spin the ceasefire as applying to more than energy infrastructure. However, it is clear that President Trump and President Putin agreed to a 30-day ceasefire on energy infrastructure only. As usual, the media are stroking their chins and talking about Zelensky’s “legitimate” concerns.

On March 24, a technical meeting will begin in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Technical teams from Russia, the US, and Ukraine will attend. The Russians and Ukrainians are supposed to be in separate rooms, while the Americans mediate. The agenda is to determine the specifics of implementing a ceasefire in the Black Sea, and report back to President Trump and President Putin. The objective is to allay Russian concerns that weapons are being smuggled in civilian ships bound for Odessa. We will have to see how these go.

For their part, the Russians have warned the Ukrainians and the Americans to adhere to the terms of the ceasefire agreed by President Trump, President Putin, and Zelensky. If the energy agreement goes off the rails, the whole negotiation could be put at risk.

At 0:59:19 Witkoff says the goal is a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire, during which time the parties will discuss a permanent ceasefire. As I have said many times, ceasefires are traditionally the product of negotiations, not the other way around. So all the media stuff about forcing Russia to accept an unconditional ceasefire is colored bubbles. That’s fine because the sides are already at the table and talking. If they agree to a deal, we’ll get a ceasefire.

At 1:03:00 Witkoff states that the biggest issue in the negotiation is Russia’s claim on the four regions (really five, counting Crimea) all of which are now constitutionally part of Russia because the people have voted through referenda to be under Russian rule. There are also constitutional issues in Ukraine preventing them from giving up territory. Those territories are now occupied by Russian forces.

A related issue is that Ukraine has to guarantee protections for Russian speakers in whatever remains of Ukraine.

At 1:04:00 Witkoff states that Zelensky and Yermak have acknowledged that Ukraine will never be a member of NATO – a key Russian requirement for any peace deal. Ukraine must agree to neutrality. Note that Zelensky continues, almost every day, to speak about how Ukraine must join NATO for protection. This is one of several issues where Zelensky and the Ukrainians agree something with the Americans and repudiate it the next day. Happens all the time. Remember, Zelensky is already trying to broaden the scope of the 30-day energy ceasefire beyond that which was agreed. This makes mediation extremely difficult for President Trump and Steve Witkoff.

At 1:09:00 Witkoff talks about how President Putin prayed for Candidate Trump when he heard he had been shot (whether you believe it or not). President Putin gave Witkoff a portrait of President Trump, painted by a Russian artist, to take to the American president.

At 1:13:00 Witkoff states flat-out that there will be elections in Ukraine, and the Zelensky regime has agreed to it. He didn’t say when those elections will occur. I have never heard Zelensky commit to elections in public and seems to remain opposed.

At 1:14:00 Witkoff states that “now is the best time to get a deal for [Ukraine]” because “they are going to get ground down.” Let’s put it this way: Yesterday, Ukraine got the stuffing kicked out of it in Kursk. Witkoff is saying that, for Ukraine, the only good day is going to be yesterday. This is coming from a man who is cleared for US intel, as discussed in President Trump’s team briefings.

At 1:14:00 Witkoff says he has spoken to multiple European leaders and told them that the more they encourage Zelensky to persist, the more they lead him to expect limitless unconditional money and weapons, and the more they dis-serve Ukraine. Because the US cannot continue to give money and weapons without a business plan to resolve the conflict. And the US will not allow this conflict to suck them into World War III.

At 1:16:00 Witkoff says the European leaders’ position supporting Ukraine is a combination of being “a posture and a pose” and simplistic thinking that “we all have to be Winston Churchill.” Having said this in a public interview, Witkoff seems to reflect President Trump’s team’s view. One senses that they know it’s an issue that may need to be dealt with at the appropriate time.

At 1:20:00 Witkoff talks about the US and Russia collaborating on Iranian issues, where Russia has influence (see the SOFREP article Will President Trump Nuke Iran’s Nukes).

At 1:21:00 Witkoff talks about Russia’s “4:1 superiority” in population (it’s actually more like 8:1) and how the conflict will ultimately end in Ukraine being ground down, or God forbid, some kind of nuclear exchange.

Now is the time to make a deal.

Conclusion

It is unlikely that the full ceasefire President Trump and Steve Witkoff seek will be achieved before the key issues of 1) NATO membership (both the US and Ukraine have to formally agree), 2) the status of the 5 regions (including Crimea), 3) the size of the permitted Ukrainian army (I have heard 85,000 to 100,000), and other points, are successfully negotiated. Some, like renunciation/rejection of NATO membership for Ukraine, may need to be ratified by the US Senate).

When Zelensky says President Putin does not want a ceasefire, he is right – certainly not an unconditional ceasefire. It is obvious to all that the Russians are winning and Ukraine is being ground down. That means the Russians don’t need a ceasefire.

However, the Russians are willing to agree to a peace deal if their concerns can be satisfied. It looks very much like the United States is cajoling Ukraine toward the Istanbul Plus position discussed in this SOFREP article: Istanbul Plus Ceasefire.

The journey to a solution will not be easy, complicated by the Ukrainians’ reluctance to make concessions. However, it is clear that the American side understands the necessary concessions will become even more demanding the longer negotiations take.

About the Author

You may reach Cameron at: cameron.curtis545@gmail.com

Cameron Curtis has spent thirty years in the financial markets as a trader and risk manager. He was on the trade floor when Saddam’s tanks rolled into Kuwait, when the air wars opened over Baghdad and Belgrade, and when the financial crisis swallowed the world. He’s studied military affairs and warfare all his adult life. His popular Breed series of military adventure thrillers are admired for combining deep expertise with propulsive action. The premises are realistic, the stories adrenaline-fueled and emotionally engaging.

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