How Should the World React to a New Wave of American Isolationism?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was met with stiff resistance by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Supplemented by large quantities of military aid from America, Canada, Europe, Australia, Japan, and South Korea, Ukraine has reversed initial Russian military gains, scoring significant victories in Kharkiv and Kherson.

Late 2023 saw a tactical standstill, as Ukraine’s summer offensive didn’t achieve the intimate objectives Kyiv wanted, and Russia’s military suffered significant losses in personnel and Moscow’s prized Black Sea Fleet.

Nevertheless, Ukraine’s military aid is uncertain due to internal political conflicts in the U.S. stemming from the much anticipated 2024 Presidential Election.

While Europe and Asia have stepped up military aid, America has slowly faltered, bringing fears that Washington could become an unreliable ally, giving the U.S. a humiliating global geopolitical loss akin to the end of the Vietnam War.

Uncertainty of U.S. Foreign Aid

In late 2023, House Republicans stated funds for Ukraine would have to be tied to the ongoing border crisis and standoff, as the GOP feels Democrats have not done enough to secure the border.

Democrats and POTUS, in return, stated the standoff is for political gain, but the President has made concessions in return for reopening foreign aid. According to a Harvard-Harris Poll, military support remains high in the U.S. despite years of disinformation and backdoor politicking.

Ukraine expended a plethora of artillery and ammunition during their summer offensive, as they were without adequate supplies of Western jets. This was not due until this upcoming spring when the Ukrainian Army had to maneuver minefields in a grind fest.

Russia, which has conducted winter offensives for most of the war, looks to enact significant operations in the Avdiivka and Kupyansk sectors for the rest of winter. While Ukraine currently can repel Russian advances and inflict heavy losses, as seen currently in Avdiivka, the lack of artillery shells and rockets from America and Europe is now slowly being seen on the battlefield.

Vladimir Putin is now banking on slow supplies of Western aid and a lack of American military funding towards Ukraine in hopes Kyiv will capitulate without heavy weaponry that could stave off Russia’s wartime economy.

Europe Prepares Contingencies

Eastern Europe, who long warned of Russia’s renewed imperial ambitions and continue to warn of future conflicts, are some of the three biggest supporters of Ukrainian aid per capita.

Already having a dark history of being betrayed by Western powers and left under Moscow’s boot, Eastern Europe is preparing for contingencies in lieu of turbulence in the American electorate.

The Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are preparing to conduct a joint Baltic Defense Initiative, which will enhance military and intelligence capabilities to combat the Russian imperial threat.

In Northern Europe, Finland became ratified as a NATO member in early 2023, while Sweden is ascending into the defense alliance. Norway and Denmark, like Eastern Europe, have been some of the biggest supporters of aid to Ukraine since 2022 and continue to be some of the top beneficiaries per capita.

The four Nordic countries pledged a joint air command in light of Russia’s Baltic aggression. With a sizeable number of Swedish Gripens, modernized F-16s, and F-35s, the Nordics are prepared to defend their sector if American turbulence happens.

Germany has increased military aid for the rest of Europe, but disputes over the Taurus missiles and the rise of pro-Russian parties could hamper future military allocations. The U.K. recently admitted there are shortfalls in the military, and due to Russian threats, the U.S. is moving American nuclear missiles to be stationed in Britain for the first time in 15 years.

Buildup in East Asia

Despite the lack of commitment from the European Union towards Ukrainian aid, particularly in artillery and air defense systems, the two regional powers of East Asia, Japan and South Korea, have stepped up tremendously.

South Korea has allocated more 155mm shells to Ukraine than the European Union combined. Likewise, North Korea is the largest supplier of artillery shells to Russia. Though with a high dud rate, the flow of arms to Moscow is making a difference in the ongoing geopolitical shift.

Seoul is becoming one of the top exporters of military technology, which is sought out by countries with solid armies, such as Turkey and Poland, and the military command of South Korea is preparing for all scenarios of North Korean aggression and American turbulence.

Japan, with renewed threats from China, North Korea, and Russia, has changed its constitution to rebuild the military for the first time since World War Two. Preparing to grow defensive and offensive capabilities by 2027, Tokyo is preparing to self-sustain itself in case of a lack of commitments by Western allies in Asia. Japan is a significant backer of Ukraine and plans on sending part of its patriot battery to the country.

Isolationism Will Never Work and Would Lead to Larger Conflicts

Despite the growing calls for renewed isolationism in the United States, history has shown such a policy is doomed for failure.

Pre-WWI, while the U.S. had an excellent economy, the world was in a problem without the soft power diplomacy America is known for. Even when keeping an isolationist stance, the U.S. would be attacked first anyway, leading to an American military intervention in WWI.

Once again, post-WWII, Washington turned to isolationism; this time, the cost would be even greater. The world became embroiled in an even deadlier war with one of the worst genocides known to man.

Isolationist America would once again be attacked first, and over 400,000 Americans would lose their lives in the Second World War. Nevertheless, the reconstruction of Europe and America and the exportation of arms greatly stimulated the economy. They made the government realize soft power with force projection worked even better than the “America First” isolationist movement.

A withdrawal of aid from Ukraine and a potential withdrawal from Europe and NATO would only cost more later, as Putin’s goal is to slowly break the defensive alliance through hybrid and informational warfare. Likewise, Asia will see the U.S. as an unreliable partner and cut deals with geopolitical rivals, which will become more costly.

Americans have legitimate grievances over foreign aid and prolonged military deployments—and these issues can be rectified through soft power diplomacy that Teddy Roosevelt once envisioned.

The growing axis of Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran continue to up weapons production for future wars while the E.U. stagnates and America remains at a crossroads over its global foreign policy strategy. Contingencies must be put in place in lieu of uncertainty, but it is always important for Americans to remember to speak softly and walk with a big stick.