World

Rising Lion: Aftershocks, Fallout, and the Road to Round Two

BY Guy D. McCardle

Israel won the first round in this fight, now time will tell if Iran can regroup or if they’ll be taken down for the count in round two.

Israeli Air Force jets fully loaded out and ready for their mission into Iran. Image Credit: The Israeli Defense Force

The Aftermath: A Trail of Smoke and Silence

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you already know that in the early hours of June 13, 2025, Israel unleashed a world of hurt on Iran in the form of Operation Rising Lion, a meticulously planned assault aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear ambitions and decapitating its military leadership. The operation’s precision and scale left a significant mark on Iran’s infrastructure and command hierarchy.

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Not Your Typical Airstrikes

Rising Lion wasn’t your average overnight airstrike. It was a flex of intelligence, firepower, and raw audacity that reminded the entire region, and the world, exactly how far Israel is willing to go when it senses an existential threat breathing down its neck. It was more than just jets in the sky and bombs in the dirt—it was a symphony of destruction choreographed with chilling precision.

First off, the sheer depth and complexity of the operation were unprecedented. This was much more than the Israeli Air Force taking a few potshots at nuclear facilities.

This was a combined arms effort involving the IDF, Mossad, and special operations forces. According to reports coming out now, Mossad agents and Israeli commandos infiltrated Iranian territory weeks in advance, sneaking in weapons and embedding strike platforms disguised as civilian vehicles. When the time came, those platforms were remotely triggered to take out Iran’s air defenses just seconds before the main strike. That level of prep work takes guts—and a whole lot of good intel…something at which the Israelis excel. 

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When the air assault hit, it did so like thunder from every direction at once. Over 100 high-value targets—including nuclear plants, missile silos, and command centers—were all struck in near-perfect synchronization. Six military bases in the greater Tehran area alone were hit, including the notoriously secure Parchin complex, which has been a red-flag site for nuclear weapons research for years. They also went after residential zones housing top brass, ensuring no one got to sleep easy that night.

And here’s where it gets downright surgical. The Israelis did more than flatten infrastructure—they decapitated Iran’s military leadership in one of the boldest targeted strikes we’ve seen in decades. Among the dead were Hossein Salami, head of the IRGC; Mohammad Bagheri, the Armed Forces Chief of Staff; and Fereydoon Abbasi and Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, two of Iran’s top nuclear scientists. Taking them all out in one night isn’t luck—it’s cold-blooded precision.

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What made this even more effective was the domestic sabotage element. Those same Mossad teams did more than plant explosives—they installed strike systems right next to Iranian missile batteries, allowing the airstrike to slice through Iranian airspace with shocking ease. Some were hidden inside regular vehicles parked near key locations. Once the fireworks started, these hidden systems activated in perfect sync, knocking out surface-to-air defense nodes and missile platforms before they could even be powered up.

Now, let’s talk about Natanz—Iran’s crown jewel of uranium enrichment. This facility isn’t some pop-up, Breaking Bad type mobile lab. It’s buried over 130 feet underground, fortified with steel and concrete, and designed to withstand all but the most advanced bunker busters. And yet, Israeli jets hit it with specialized munitions reportedly designed for deep penetration and precision. The damage to Natanz is being described as “significant,” with supporting infrastructure collapsed and critical equipment rendered useless. That’s going to put Iran’s nuclear timeline back months—maybe years.

Natanz
A satellite view of the above-ground portion of the Natanz nuclear site as it appeared after a fire in 2020. Image Credit: Maxar Technologies via The Jerusalem Post

There’s also talk that Israeli intelligence played a hell of a psychological trick on Iran’s leadership. Multiple reports suggest Mossad tricked several top Iranian commanders into meeting in the same location, allowing the strike to take them out in one go. If true, that’s a whole lot more than good intelligence—it’s next-level psychological warfare.

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And of course, no operation of this scale goes unnoticed. Within hours, Iran launched over 100 drones at Israel in retaliation. Israel’s air defense systems, battle-hardened after years of rocket attacks from Gaza and Hezbollah, managed to intercept the bulk of them. Still, the shockwaves spread across the region. Israel declared a state of emergency, shut down its airspace, and mobilized tens of thousands of troops. Airports from Amman to Abu Dhabi scrambled to reroute flights as everyone braced for what might come next.

In the end, Operation Rising Lion sent a clear message to Iran. Israel has shown it can strike with speed, depth, and accuracy deep inside enemy territory. It’s shown the world—and especially Tehran—that when it says “never again,” it means it.

Iran’s Retaliation: Limp and Ineffective 

Iran’s drone retaliation, fired off in the wake of Operation Rising Lion, at first looked impressive on paper—over 100 drones launched in a single barrage aimed at Israeli airspace. But that’s where the impact ended. Israel’s multi-layered air defense system, headlined by the Iron Dome and bolstered by David’s Sling and Arrow systems, was waiting, fully primed, and made quick work of the threat. According to Israeli officials, none of the drones reached their intended targets. Not a single major casualty, no critical infrastructure hit, and no fires burning in the streets of Tel Aviv. The Iranian barrage came in loud, but landed silent.

It wasn’t luck that spared Israel—it was planning. The IDF had anticipated retaliation and had its defenses at peak readiness before the first drone even cleared Iranian airspace. What most people don’t know is that the drone attack wasn’t Iran’s first-choice response. According to multiple sources, Israel’s initial strikes took out Iranian missile launchers and crippled key air defense systems. Iran had missiles ready to fly—but the launchers got lit up before they ever left the barn. With their most potent options scorched, Iran was left with drones as their best available fallback.

And it gets even deeper. Mossad and Israeli commandos had reportedly set up a covert drone base inside Iran itself, launching preemptive hits on launch sites outside Tehran before Iran could even react. It was sabotage with surgical precision. It was an intelligence masterclass. By the time Iran was ready to hit back, they’d already been disarmed from the inside.

Iran, of course, knew drones wouldn’t be a game-winning strategy. Past attempts—like those in April and October 2024—had proven ineffective against Israel’s tech-heavy defenses. But after the damage inflicted by Rising Lion, Tehran needed to respond fast, and drones were all they had left. It was a symbolic swing, less about breaking Israeli defenses and more about saving face after a brutal round one.

What this entire exchange confirmed is that Israel’s air defense grid is among the most sophisticated in the world. Not only can it detect and intercept multiple drones from different directions, it’s also smart enough to layer responses—firing off secondary interceptors when needed to make absolutely sure nothing slips through. It’s like trying to beat a slot machine that cheats better than you do.

In the end, Iran’s drone retaliation didn’t cause material damage, but it did make one thing crystal clear: Israel’s reach is long, its defenses are elite, and its intelligence network is embedded deep behind enemy lines. The operation exposed the limitations of drone warfare when going up against a state with serious defensive tech—and even more serious intent to use it. Iran’s response wasn’t a counterstrike. It was a warning shot with the safety still on.

 

Anticipating Round Two: Strategies and Speculations

If you think Israel’s done after Operation Rising Lion, think again. The first wave did serious damage—took out top commanders, wrecked key nuclear infrastructure, and left Iran a bit bloodied. But this wasn’t a knockout blow. It was round one in what could turn into a drawn-out slugfest. Israel’s planners know that unfinished business invites future threats, and there’s a strong chance they’re already lining up a second wave of strikes to make sure Iran stays off-balance and on the defensive.

So what might round two look like? Likely targets include the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, a deep-buried facility near Qom that’s built like a bunker and loaded with uranium enrichment centrifuges. It’s hardened and hidden for a reason—Fordow is one of the last cards Iran has in its nuclear hand. Then there’s the Parchin Military Complex, long suspected of housing weapons development labs and explosive testing. Finally, Israel will have its eyes locked on ballistic missile sites, particularly those storing the newly unveiled Qassem Bassir missiles—long-range weapons that could potentially reach deep into Israeli territory.

To pull it off, Israel has the tools. Expect F-35 stealth fighters to lead the way, flying under radar coverage to hit hardened bunkers. Those jets could be backed up by long-range precision missiles capable of threading the needle through reinforced targets. And don’t forget the cyber component—Israel’s cyber warriors are some of the best in the game. When round two comes, it will be more than bombs dropping; command and control networks will go dark, radar screens will freeze, and communication lines will cut out like a bad cable feed in a Minnesota blizzard. 

Now, flip the coin—how does Iran respond if Israel comes in swinging again? There’s still plenty of danger left in Tehran’s arsenal. First up, the ballistic missile threat. Iran’s got the range and the warheads to hit Israeli cities and bases, even with defenses like Iron Dome standing in the way. Then there’s the proxy wildcard—Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia militias in Iraq and Syria, all itching to launch coordinated attacks to open up multiple fronts and stretch Israeli defenses thin. And just like Israel, Iran has a cyber playbook of its own. Expect them to target infrastructure—power grids, transportation hubs, maybe even banks—trying to throw a wrench in Israel’s economy and daily life.

But the real curveball is the Qassem Bassir missile. This new weapon reportedly has a range of 1,200 kilometers and features advanced guidance systems, making it a potential force multiplier in the hands of a regime already on edge. Whether Iran will roll that die is another question, but it’s a threat that Israel can’t afford to ignore.

Bottom line? Round two is coming—maybe tomorrow, maybe next week—but the pieces are already in motion. Israel’s likely to strike again at least one more time to finish what it started, and Iran won’t sit on its hands. The next phase won’t be about who hits first—it’ll be about who hits harder, smarter, and with enough precision to keep the upper hand. Keep your flak jackets close and don’t stray far from the shelter. This thing’s not cooling down any time soon.

 

Looking Forward: A Region on the Brink

Operation Rising Lion has significantly altered the strategic landscape of the Middle East in one brutal evening. With both Israel and Iran (and their proxy states) poised for further action, the potential for a broader regional conflict looms large. This is what keeps leaders up at night. 

Diplomatic efforts are urgently needed to de-escalate tensions and prevent the entire region from being reduced into a single, oil-rich parking lot. 

As the situation evolves, vigilance and preparedness are paramount. 

Both sides are lighting matches in a room full of gasoline, knowing full well there’s no exit.

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