Morning Brief: Germany, Taiwan, and Russia Expose the Human Side of Modern Warfare

Tuo Chiang-class corvette fires a HF-3 supersonic anti-ship cruise missile. Military News Agency photo Taiwan Pushes Major Defense Buildup Amid U.S. Arms Deal and China Taiwan’s defense posture is shifting rapidly as Beijing increases military pressure and Washington pushes Taipei to spend more on its own survival. Reuters is reporting tracks with a series of major developments that together mark the most aggressive Taiwanese military buildup in decades. In December 2025, the United States approved an $11.1 billion arms package for Taiwan, the largest single sale since Washington switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979. According to U.S. and Taiwanese defense officials cited by Reuters, the package includes eight separate weapons and support bundles. Publicly acknowledged systems include M109A7 self-propelled howitzers, HIMARS rocket artillery, Javelin and TOW anti-tank missiles, ALTIUS loitering munitions, and tactical command-and-control networks. Taiwan’s deputy defense minister confirmed that five of the packages are public, while additional elements remain under State Department review ahead of congressional notification. Delivery timelines are expected to stretch three to five years. China reacted almost immediately. Reuters reported that the People’s Liberation Army conducted military drills around Taiwan in late December, condemning the sale as foreign interference and a provocation. The exercises reinforced Beijing’s pattern of pairing arms announcements with visible military pressure. The arms deal comes as Taiwan’s leadership pushes an even larger domestic spending plan. President Lai Ching-te has proposed a special NT$1.25 trillion, roughly $40 billion, defense budget spread over eight years from 2026 to 2033. The plan would fund U.S. weapons purchases, development of Taiwan’s indigenous T-Dome air defense system, and broader asymmetric warfare upgrades. Taiwan’s base defense budget for 2026 already stands at NT$949.5 billion, about $30 billion, representing 3.32 percent of GDP and a 25 percent increase year over year. Reuters reported that U.S. officials welcome the increase but continue to press Taiwan to spend more, with some voices in Washington calling for defense spending closer to 10 percent of GDP. Political resistance at home remains strong. Opposition lawmakers from the Kuomintang and Taiwan People’s Party have repeatedly blocked the special budget, citing fiscal strain and disagreements over how much funding should go to U.S. arms versus domestic programs. Strategically, Taiwanese officials frame the buildup as preparation for a PLA force readiness window around 2027, a timeline repeatedly referenced in U.S. assessments. The risk, analysts warn, is that political delays and long delivery schedules could weaken deterrence at precisely the moment Taiwan is trying to strengthen it.   The Russian military uses individual shelters to protect against FPV and thermal imaging cameras. Source: Russian media Russian Troops Attempt Thermal Stealth Using Portable Toilets Russian forces in Ukraine appear to have entered the “try anything once” phase of battlefield adaptation. Recent footage circulating on Ukrainian OSINT channels shows Russian soldiers attempting to evade Ukrainian drone thermals by hiding inside portable toilet tents that look like something ordered during a late-night online shopping binge. Videos filmed in early January show clusters of small, vertical pop-up tents positioned along frozen roads and open ground near the front lines. Each tent fully encloses a single soldier from head to toe, leaving only a narrow slit for observation. From the air, the formations resemble a row of suspiciously tactical porta-potties deployed in the snow. According to Ukrainian analysts who reviewed the footage, the intent is straightforward. Ukrainian FPV drones with thermal sensors have made traditional concealment nearly useless. Trees, brush, and shallow cover no longer hide body heat. The Russian answer appears to be total enclosure, trading mobility and dignity for the hope of not glowing like a road flare on a drone feed. Some of the tents appear to be made from silver-embedded polyester fabric, similar to commercial camping privacy shelters. In theory, silver-coated material can reflect a portion of infrared radiation and reduce a heat signature. Laboratory studies show such fabrics can lower infrared emissivity and slightly reduce apparent temperature. In practice, the effect is limited. Silver conducts heat well, meaning body heat spreads evenly across the fabric and eventually leaks out. Once the tent warms up, it stops being clever and starts being noticeable. There is also the small issue of visibility. Vertical tents placed in neat rows tend to attract attention from anything with eyes, binoculars, or a camera drone. Ukrainian outlets analyzing the footage noted that the tents stand out sharply against snow and dirt, making them easy to spot before thermal even becomes relevant. The larger takeaway is not the fabric science. It is the situation driving this behavior. Russian units have taken heavy losses from Ukrainian drones, particularly while stationary or moving along exposed routes. The priority has shifted from maneuver to concealment, even if that concealment involves crouching inside what looks like a one-man field latrine while hoping no one drops a grenade down the ventilation hole. Ukrainian analysts have speculated that the tents may be cheap commercial products sourced online, possibly from Chinese retail platforms. If true, that tracks with a war where soldiers are increasingly improvising survival measures with consumer gear and crossed fingers. This tactic may provide brief, situational protection against thermal sensors. It does not solve the problem of artillery, observation drones, or the fact that war tends to punish soldiers who stop moving and hide in portable bathrooms. It does, however, add a new chapter to modern warfare, one where the line between camouflage and camping accessories continues to blur. At this point, nothing should surprise anyone. Not even an army attempting stealth operations from inside a pop-up toilet tent in January.