France Backs Armenia, Sparks Global Shadow Conflict with Azerbaijan

Against the backdrop of heightened tensions across the globe, various shadow conflicts are fomenting in different regions, such as the Middle East with Israel and Iran and East Africa with Egypt and Ethiopia.

The South Caucasus is no exception. Not only several direct wars have taken place with Armenia and Azerbaijan, but the latter is silently engaged in a shadow conflict with France, which is now affecting overseas French protectorates.

Tensions Against the Karabakh Wars Backdrop

Against the backdrop of the Second Karabakh War, in which Azerbaijan won with major military support from Turkey and Israel against a more geopolitically isolated Armenia, the Armenian government was forced into a humiliating capitulation. The Trilateral Agreement was meant to be implemented in a five-year period without further bloodshed, but Baku would go against their own agreement nonetheless.

A major escalation in Armenia proper would ensue by Azerbaijan in September 2022. At the same time, in 2023, the latter would once again ignite a war after a year-long blockade of 120,000 Armenians in Karabakh. Once again, Azerbaijan would win a lightning war as Armenian-Russian relations deteriorated and the West was unwilling to directly diplomatically or militarily intervene. However, countries such as Lithuania and France criticized the slow Western response.

The results of the war would be one of the largest acts of ethnic cleansing in the 21st century. Along with the complete capitulation of the unrecognized breakaway state of Artsakh, the remaining 120,000 Armenians in the region would become refugees, and further cultural genocide against millennia-old Armenian artifacts and churches continued soon after.

Azerbaijan’s actions in 2023 further strained its international relations, even with its gas deals with Europe. Countries such as France and India started to step up support for Armenia, and more diplomatic pressure started to be applied to the Aliyev regime.

Growing French Military Assistance to Armenia

In late 2023, against the backdrop of Azerbaijan’s military victory and subsequent ethnic cleansing of the remaining Armenians in the Karabakh region, the French government started the process of major military aid to Armenia.

France’s first major arms deliveries, announced in early 2024, include short-range Mistral missiles and night-vision goggles, which would be instrumental in stopping nighttime Azerbaijani army infiltrations.

In June, Paris also announced the transfer of the 36 meticulously accurate CAESAR howitzers to Yerevan. The CAESAR howitzers have gained valuable combat tests and data as the Ukrainian army uses them effectively against Russian forces in Ukraine.

Azerbaijan’s ruling government invoked a vitriolic and provocative response to French weapons transfers to Armenia—going as far as threatening war against their less internationally-backed neighbor once again.

Likewise, the Russian government, which has cozied up to Azerbaijan, also criticized the French weapons transfer, even though the Kremlin left their “ally” in Armenia out to dry. Russia sees Azerbaijan as a potential conduit to evade sanctions, and therefore, the growing diplomatic conflict between Baku and Paris is also intertwining with Moscow.

Azerbaijan Steps up Hybrid Warfare in Overseas French Territories

Growing worried that Armenia is becoming integrated into the international fold thanks to French soft power, Azerbaijan stepped up hybrid warfare against France. In May of this year, in New Caledonia, an overseas French Protectorate, major protests ensued by Kanak nationalists, but with striking hallmarks of hybrid and informational warfare.

The protests sparked by Kanak nationalists openly included Azerbaijani flags and t-shirts. Azerbaijan’s state media openly amplified the New Caledonia protests.

The French government took extensive measures in New Caledonia, such as banning TikTok, the Chinese government-linked spyware social media company. Despite claiming they had no link to the protests, Baku invited leaders of various separatist movements in French territories in July 2023.

Creating the ‘Baku Initiative Group,’ Azerbaijan looks to flame separatism and internal conflicts in French territories due to France’s growing military and diplomatic support for Armenia.

Involvement of Russia and Turkey Further Complicates Things

Alongside Azerbaijan, Russia and Turkey also have geopolitical disputes with France, as French military aid has increased in Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean—and Moscow’s and Ankara’s disputes with Paris are quickly aligning with Baku’s.

In the Eastern Mediterranean, France is ramping up military support for Greece due to heightened tensions with Turkey as Ankara ramps up belligerent actions towards Cyprus and the Greek Aegean Isles. Turkey is reciprocating by also interfering in French domestic policies and former overseas colonies—particularly in Niger.

Turkey currently has a mutual defense pact with Azerbaijan, and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan recently admitted Turkish military involvement in the Second Karabakh War. With Azerbaijan growingly under diplomatic pressure from France, Baku’s top defense partner in Ankara will look to keep Paris on its heels.

Initially taking a more diplomatic role with discrete defense packages to Ukraine, French President Macron has dramatically increased support to the war-battered nation, and his defense cabinet has gone as far as presenting a potential Western intervention against Russia.

The change in the French government’s posture towards the Kremlin came against the backdrop of the Russian-backed coups in the African ‘coup belt.’ The Russian-funded Wagner Group has helped to prop up various military juntas in former French colonies along the Sahel and Central Africa.

The Russian-backed juntas have not only forced French-led military coalitions to leave their countries but also started the process of removing the French language and increasing trade and resources with Moscow, which Paris takes as a major slight.

Russia’s increased partnership with Azerbaijan became a factor in growing French-Armenian ties, and France looks to insert its authority against Russian ambitions in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus. Simultaneously, Turkey and Russia will look to give Azerbaijan as much support as possible in the ongoing geopolitical conflict against France.

France and Azerbaijan are now waging a shadow conflict, not only in the South Caucasus but also in various regions across the globe. The geopolitical implications against the backdrop of the Second Karabakh War are a major reminder that the ‘smaller wars’ of the world can eventually grow into a global domino effect.