The South Caucasus, sometimes overlooked, is a region where ‘low-level’ conflicts have the possibility of becoming regional or even potentially global if the geopolitical quagmires are left unchecked. Ongoing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan correlate to a once low-level conflict that can now go regional as significant world players are fully invested in the current tensions.

One such player now growingly invested and concerned with a potential regional conflict is the United States, which, for years, relatively stood idly while playing cavalier between Yerevan and Baku.

Armenian-Azerbaijani Tensions

Expecting that longtime Azerbaijani autocrat Ilham Aliyev would obey international law and come to a peaceful settlement after his 2020 victory, the dictator instead has constantly provoked war. First in 2022 in Armenia proper and then in 2023 with a globally condemned blockade and military and military operation that resulted in the ethnic cleansing of the Karabakh Armenians.