Russian media and President Vladimir Putin’s propagandists, such as television personality Vladimir Solovyov, continue to peddle a dangerous and threatening narrative. It is a narrative claiming Russia is not only winning its war of aggression in Ukraine but is also prepared to square off against those who challenge its supremacy, specifically its Northern European neighbors. This is the time for NATO and Ukraine’s allies to up the pressure on Russia, a time to stand firm against any further Russian aggression. Ironically and comically, the Russians are trying to convince the listening world that their “special military operation” in Ukraine has not only been successful but that Russian forces are on the cusp of a great victory. Neither scenario is true, and with an incoherent and disjointed Russian chain of command and uncoordinated air and ground operations, they are losing irreplaceable numbers of men and machines.
This friction and chaos, at the highest levels of the Russian leadership, is an opportunity for Ukraine. An opportunity, with support from NATO and their allies, to trap the Russians and fundamentally alter the course of the war – with exposed supply lines and the latent onset of winter, a defeat of Russian forces reminiscent of the Battle of Kyiv in 1942, where nearly seven-hundred thousand Russians were killed or captured, should be in the mind of Russian military planners. Understandably, NATO leaders are fearful of pushing the Russians into a corner, but Russia has nothing left, albeit veiled threats of nuclear weapons. President Putin, like any despot, is concerned with personal and regime preservation, and any use of nuclear weapons would be the end to both.
For Russia, a Ukraine victory is a long-lost, unattainable daydream. As President Putin searches for political lifelines or ego-saving maneuvers, time is running out. The Russian Armed Forces are exhausted, the Russian people are frustrated, the Russian economy is crippled, and there are few political options available. Let me clarify a few options that would not be embarrassing for President Putin or options that a czar, clinging to power, would accept. Any call by Russia for a cessation of hostilities would imply Russia is weak and Putin cannot lose face – not now – what a conundrum.
Simply put, the unified Russian forces can no longer win the war in Ukraine, as their forces have culminated – they can no longer advance or effectively defend themselves. No allies are coming to their rescue. Unfortunately, this is not how mainstream Western media are reporting the war. Instead, there is a focus on the politics and risks of supporting a Ukraine that has its own internal struggles with manpower, training, and perceptions of corruption, but let’s keep our eyes on the real issue – an expansionist Russia. Russia cannot regenerate forces fast enough and, even with a four-to-one advantage in raw manpower over Ukraine, has been unable to generate any operational momentum after its most recent fall offensive. Desertions, low levels of training for conscripts, untrained junior officers and a void of non-commissioned officers plague the Russian Armed Forces at every level.
Russian leadership at the highest levels has been just as manic and just as disjointed. President Putin, like so many dictators of the past, believes he knows warfare better than his generals and continues to micromanage aspects of the war from his office in the Kremlin. Putin often approves sorties of aircraft, movements of armored formations and the timing of attacks. Russian Army General Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff, was appointed as commander of military operations in Ukraine last January, but finding a clear chain of command and the limits of his authorities is difficult. The actual operational chain of command in the Ukraine is kept close hold by the Kremlin, and likely for good reasons.
The Russian Armed Force’s senior leaders are likely to appease President Putin rather than question his tactical acumen as a means of self-preservation. The list of imprisoned Russian Generals and those who have died under suspicious circumstances continues to grow. On the Ukrainian front, there has been a rapid turnover of operational and tactical commanders from the battalion level and above. A combination of combat casualties, assassinations, mutinies, and high-profile firings have taken their toll on the Russian unit’s effectiveness and cohesion.
Still, more friction exists for senior commanders because of the mixing of military formations with traditional police, domestic and foreign intelligence services, and mercenary groups. An example is the still operational and notorious Wager Group – inside the Wager Group is the Sabotage Assault Reconnaissance Group (DShRG), which is pro-Russian, neo-Nazi and includes officers of the Russian Federal Drug Control Unit (FKSN) – a dangerous mix of state and non-state organizations. As an autocrat who needs to ensure his competitors cannot become too strong, President Putin encourages rivalries and accepts the inefficiencies of an army that has no unity of command.
Unity of command and unity of effort is critical for offensive military operations, particularly for one involving overt aggression – a critical vulnerability of the Russians. Conversely, unity of command is also essential for defending against an invading army and is one of Ukraine’s great advantages. Ukraine has unified its country and army against a common enemy. They see this as a fight on many levels but, at its core, as a fight for national identity and survival – as did Winston Churchill in 1940.
Russian media and President Vladimir Putin’s propagandists, such as television personality Vladimir Solovyov, continue to peddle a dangerous and threatening narrative. It is a narrative claiming Russia is not only winning its war of aggression in Ukraine but is also prepared to square off against those who challenge its supremacy, specifically its Northern European neighbors. This is the time for NATO and Ukraine’s allies to up the pressure on Russia, a time to stand firm against any further Russian aggression. Ironically and comically, the Russians are trying to convince the listening world that their “special military operation” in Ukraine has not only been successful but that Russian forces are on the cusp of a great victory. Neither scenario is true, and with an incoherent and disjointed Russian chain of command and uncoordinated air and ground operations, they are losing irreplaceable numbers of men and machines.
This friction and chaos, at the highest levels of the Russian leadership, is an opportunity for Ukraine. An opportunity, with support from NATO and their allies, to trap the Russians and fundamentally alter the course of the war – with exposed supply lines and the latent onset of winter, a defeat of Russian forces reminiscent of the Battle of Kyiv in 1942, where nearly seven-hundred thousand Russians were killed or captured, should be in the mind of Russian military planners. Understandably, NATO leaders are fearful of pushing the Russians into a corner, but Russia has nothing left, albeit veiled threats of nuclear weapons. President Putin, like any despot, is concerned with personal and regime preservation, and any use of nuclear weapons would be the end to both.
For Russia, a Ukraine victory is a long-lost, unattainable daydream. As President Putin searches for political lifelines or ego-saving maneuvers, time is running out. The Russian Armed Forces are exhausted, the Russian people are frustrated, the Russian economy is crippled, and there are few political options available. Let me clarify a few options that would not be embarrassing for President Putin or options that a czar, clinging to power, would accept. Any call by Russia for a cessation of hostilities would imply Russia is weak and Putin cannot lose face – not now – what a conundrum.
Simply put, the unified Russian forces can no longer win the war in Ukraine, as their forces have culminated – they can no longer advance or effectively defend themselves. No allies are coming to their rescue. Unfortunately, this is not how mainstream Western media are reporting the war. Instead, there is a focus on the politics and risks of supporting a Ukraine that has its own internal struggles with manpower, training, and perceptions of corruption, but let’s keep our eyes on the real issue – an expansionist Russia. Russia cannot regenerate forces fast enough and, even with a four-to-one advantage in raw manpower over Ukraine, has been unable to generate any operational momentum after its most recent fall offensive. Desertions, low levels of training for conscripts, untrained junior officers and a void of non-commissioned officers plague the Russian Armed Forces at every level.
Russian leadership at the highest levels has been just as manic and just as disjointed. President Putin, like so many dictators of the past, believes he knows warfare better than his generals and continues to micromanage aspects of the war from his office in the Kremlin. Putin often approves sorties of aircraft, movements of armored formations and the timing of attacks. Russian Army General Valery Gerasimov, the Chief of the General Staff, was appointed as commander of military operations in Ukraine last January, but finding a clear chain of command and the limits of his authorities is difficult. The actual operational chain of command in the Ukraine is kept close hold by the Kremlin, and likely for good reasons.
The Russian Armed Force’s senior leaders are likely to appease President Putin rather than question his tactical acumen as a means of self-preservation. The list of imprisoned Russian Generals and those who have died under suspicious circumstances continues to grow. On the Ukrainian front, there has been a rapid turnover of operational and tactical commanders from the battalion level and above. A combination of combat casualties, assassinations, mutinies, and high-profile firings have taken their toll on the Russian unit’s effectiveness and cohesion.
Still, more friction exists for senior commanders because of the mixing of military formations with traditional police, domestic and foreign intelligence services, and mercenary groups. An example is the still operational and notorious Wager Group – inside the Wager Group is the Sabotage Assault Reconnaissance Group (DShRG), which is pro-Russian, neo-Nazi and includes officers of the Russian Federal Drug Control Unit (FKSN) – a dangerous mix of state and non-state organizations. As an autocrat who needs to ensure his competitors cannot become too strong, President Putin encourages rivalries and accepts the inefficiencies of an army that has no unity of command.
Unity of command and unity of effort is critical for offensive military operations, particularly for one involving overt aggression – a critical vulnerability of the Russians. Conversely, unity of command is also essential for defending against an invading army and is one of Ukraine’s great advantages. Ukraine has unified its country and army against a common enemy. They see this as a fight on many levels but, at its core, as a fight for national identity and survival – as did Winston Churchill in 1940.
“After the first forty days we were alone, with victorious Germany and Italy engaged in mortal attack upon us, with Soviet Russia a hostile neutral actively aiding Hitler, and Japan an unknowable menace. However, the British War Cabinet…supported by Parliament and sustained by the Governments and peoples of the British Commonwealth and Empire, enabled all tasks to be accomplished and overcame our foes.”
-Winston Churchill, 01JAN49, from Their Finest Hour
As Russian news outlets recently highlighted military advances in the Donbas Region, they often excluded the most telling details. This past week, northwest of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, the Russian army has lost or abandoned at least 140 tanks—while advancing just a mile north and south of the city. Unable to synchronize their attacks, infantry and armored units often advance without artillery or aviation support. These tactics are nearly suicidal and expose a complete lack of understanding of modern combat and the use of combined arms. With all the advanced technology available, the Russian army is led doctrinally like it was in the 1930s, trained like the 1940s, equipped like the 1980s, and employed like it is still 1917.
Like 1917, Russians are feeling the pinch of a protracted war. In the Russian city of Belgorod, a city of one million just twenty-five miles from the Ukrainian border, people sit in food lines, and discontent grows. Almost defying logic, time may be on the Ukraine’s side. It is not a lot of time, but perhaps enough. Enough time for disgruntled Russians to question the lack of food due to the shortsighted destruction of Ukrainian harvests and farming equipment and enough time for the death, capture, or maiming of four hundred thousand husbands, sons, and fathers to sink it. It is time for commanders to realize that one hundred helicopters, seventy-five tactical jets, and nearly five thousand tanks and armored vehicles lost are generational losses – combined losses that will take ten to fifteen years to replace.
This leaves Russian state TV and Putin’s supporting pundits foraging for new ways to spin their humiliating defeats and stalemates. This is the time for the United States and its NATO allies to expose Russia’s depleted military with additional military equipment, training, and advisors for Ukraine. All three are needed to ensure the Russian forces are defeated – only then can the United Nations General Assembly refer Russia to the International Criminal Court to begin to hold President Vladimir Putin and his associates accountable for the war crimes and atrocities they have committed over nearly two years of the conflict.
So, how does Ukraine and NATO get there? There is no easy path, but Ukraine has shown tremendous resolve and newly found confidence with Western hardware, training, and financial support. New armored vehicles, artillery, radar, communication, and both anti-armor and anti-aircraft missile systems have been effective foil to the latest Russian offensive, likely their last until the spring. Training on and operating these systems has seen challenges, but overall, they give the Ukrainians an advantage.
One example has been the thirty M1 Abrams tanks and ammunition delivered by the United States. The M1 brings a level of survivability, lethality, agility, and firepower unmatched by Russian armor. But M1 Abrams, United Kingdom Challenger, or German Leopard tanks alone will not win this war; winning requires unwavering resolve and commitment from NATO. The same can be said for the United States, which made F-16 fighters donated by Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Norway. F-16s will undoubtedly provide a tactical advantage, and though they cannot win the war alone, they send a bold message of resolve and commitment to the Ukrainians and an advanced warning to the Russians.
In response, the Russian message is more a high-pitched bark than a bite – President Vladimir Putin and his propagandists hurl threats and insults and demand that Ukraine “bend the knee.” The Russian President and his closest advisors, at their core, are very nervous bullies. Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, whose comments are easily confused as satire, recently said that all US troops should be removed from Europe. That sentiment may get a few votes on the streets of Moscow but instead has become comedy club punch lines, sending laughs across Europe.
The war in Ukraine is ugly, as all wars are, but we all need to reject and confront evil wherever and whenever we see it. Doing so is not easy, and it does not come without tremendous costs – just ask a Ukrainian defender fighting in the meatgrinder that is the Donetsk town of Avdiivka or families hiding in bunkers as Russian drones and missiles are fired blindly into Kyiv. Now is the time to stand united and resolute with the Ukraine. This is about rejecting aggression, respecting national sovereignty, and defending human rights. This is about committing American resources and efforts to our allies and honoring our responsibilities to NATO – this is what being on the right side of history looks like.
Eric F. Buer – 12JAN24
Eric can be reached at www.ericbuer.com
Requests for speaking engagements or interviews can be sent to Jeff Johnson @ Allen Media Strategies [email protected]
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