Analysis: One issue that was brought up recently at the summit between Merkel and Putin in regards to Germany, Russia, and Ukraine has been the construction of the Nordsteam 2 pipeline that runs will allow Russia to bypass Ukraine in delivering their natural gas to Europe. With most hurdles out of the way, it seems like it is up to Germany to give the final yes for the project to proceed which would be completed in 2019.
Afghanistan
For the United States, major operations started after the September 11, 2001 attacks from the Al Qaeda terrorist organization. Following the September 11 attacks which were planned and coordinated by Al Qaeda in Afghanistan, the United States attacked on October 7, 2001, in retaliation for the 9/11 attacks and has since been involved with the long conflict in Afghanistan. The conflict is now the longest in U.S. history and with thousands of troops still deployed it will take more time to ensure that it will not degrade back to a pre 9/11 condition which was a hotbed of terrorist and extremist ideology.
Developments: According to Afghan sources the leader of ISIS in Afghanistan Abu Sayeed Orakzai has been killed in an airstrike near the Pakistani border in Nangarhar province.
Russia is hoping to host a gathering of countries invested in the peace of Afghanistan to include the Taliban and the United States, however, the United States and Afghanistan have turned it down citing that any talks should be led by Afghanistan.
There is a report that China is building a base near the China/Afghan border to combat any possible spillover from the conflict into its own borders. The troops stationed there are thought to pursue a counter-terrorism training mission, but the Chinese government has denied this report.
Analysis: All of this news this past week comes together when looked at more strategically from the viewpoint of both China and Russia. Russia has a big interest in combating ISIS in Afghanistan as many of its fighters come from states that border Russia. China has been cracking down on any signs of Islamic militancy within its own borders and both countries want to play much bigger roles in the world than they have in the past few years so these moves to be more involved not only serve to deter terrorism, but fit within an overall strategy both politically and militarily to be more involved in world affairs.
China already has an overseas base in the Horn of Africa and having a forward operating base in Afghanistan would give them a second military base outside of their own country. China is planning a naval base in Pakistan which would really start to give China the ability to forward project their naval strength throughout the Indian Ocean and well into the Middle East.
Russia, China, and the United States have a vested interest in combating terrorism, however, what has changed in recent years is both the ability and the willingness of Russia and China to not only meddle in areas that were dominated by both NATO and the United States but the ability to start forward project their influence as they have with both the Syrian conflict and now Afghanistan based on a report which China denies.
Mexican Drug Wars
The Mexican Drug wars have been bloody for decades but the modern drug war as referred to in the media was generally thought to have started in 2006 when Mexican President Felipe Calderon sent over 6,000 Mexican troops to his native state of Michoacan. As a result, the drug wars have increased greatly and tens of thousands of murders have occurred since then, which was a dramatic increase from before 2006. Mexico’s drug wars have claimed sometimes tens of thousands of lives a year, with many reports of escalating brutality such as beheadings and torture.
Developments: There is a new cooperative effort between U.S. and Mexican drug enforcement officials to go after the finances of top drug kingpins and extradite them to the United States for prosecution. The new alliance has offered few details, but some reports seem to suggest that there is an awareness that the drugs go through the Midwest through cities like St Louis and Detroit. Officials from these cities along with Mexican and Chicago officials held the press conference in Chicago where they have had an unusually high rate of shootings and killings related to either drugs or gang violence.
The incoming Mexican President Manuel Lopez Obrador has also stated that he will keep the military in a crime-fighting role in regards to the drug cartels. He previously wanted more federal law enforcement officers to fill that role, however, the numbers he wanted for that to happen will take more time than what would allow a smoother transition from using the military in its law enforcement role.
What to watch: September 30, 2018, is the deadline for the funding, which would be the deadline to watch this play out in the next coming months.
Mexico has elected Andreas Manuel Lopez Obrador as new incoming President of Mexico and is expected to take over December 1st, 2018 is reportedly considering a big change in how Mexico deals with its drug cartels and the war on drugs which have claimed hundreds of thousands of lives since major developments in 2006. He is considering a number of new strategies such as more opportunities for the youth such as scholarships to divert them away from the drug cartels, more security at the ports, having the military move away from doing law enforcement and more emphasis on police taking over more law enforcement duties. This is according to Olga Sanchez, who is Obrador’s proposed interior minister.
Analysis: The news over the new trade agreements between the United States and Mexico is the big news coming from the news in Mexico at the moment, however, the increased cooperation between the US and Mexican drug enforcement officials is good news, but with few details as to what they are going to do differently there is no way to assess how that will work or whether it is just talk. This is undoubtedly an international problem with drugs affecting both users and crime rates in the cities of America. Cartels move the drugs across the border and have networked with various gangs across America fueling violence and crime so anything to cut the cartels is good, but on the other hand with a constant demand from the United States putting one kingpin in jail may mean more infighting and violence as the power vacuum creates just more of the same as in the case of the Sinaloa cartel after the capture of Joaquin ‘El Chapo’ Guzman.
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