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Evening Brief: Trump Plans to Impose 100% Tariffs on China, Deadly South Carolina Bar Shooting, Gaza Summit Tomorrow

BY Guy D. McCardle

Trump threatens a 100 percent China tariff amid a rare earth squeeze, St. Helena reels after a bar shooting that left four dead and 20 wounded, and Trump and Sisi push a Gaza ceasefire toward a harder Phase Two at Sharm el Sheikh. It’s Sunday, October 12th, 2025. This is your SOFREP Evening Brief.

A High School "alumni party" was going on at Willies when shots rang out, killing four and injuring twenty. Image Credit: The Independent

100 Percent Tariff Threat Meets Beijing’s Rare Earth Squeeze

If you thought the United States and China had found a lower boiling point, think again. On October 10, President Donald Trump said he will slap an additional 100 percent tariff on imports from China as soon as November 1, stacked on top of the existing 30 percent levy. The timing is no accident. Beijing just tightened the tap on rare earth minerals, forcing companies to secure special government approval before exporting products that contain even trace amounts sourced from China, no matter where those products are made.

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Rare earths are the quiet muscle inside modern power. They sit inside semiconductors, electric vehicle batteries, jet engines, and the kind of defense equipment you only notice when it fails.

China controls about 70 percent of global mining and roughly 90 percent of processing.

That kind of market share is leverage. Washington sees a choke point. Beijing sees a tool.

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Trump labeled the new Chinese rules “extraordinarily aggressive” and a “moral disgrace,” and he threatened export controls on any and all critical software on a similar timeline. The administration has not provided details, which is exactly what spooks boardrooms. The signal is escalation without a clear ladder.

Diplomacy is catching shrapnel. The meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, scheduled for later in October at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, now appears uncertain. Trump first floated a cancellation, then said he would attend. Beijing responded by rejecting the tariff threat outright, urging dialogue while warning of appropriate countermeasures if Washington goes unilateral.

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Markets heard the message. The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index fell as traders priced in renewed trade hostilities and supply risk. Firms that live and die on rare earth inputs flagged higher costs and potential disruptions. Boards can hedge currency. They cannot hedge a permit in Beijing.

This is not a narrow tussle about import lines. It is a contest over who controls the valves of the twenty-first-century industry. The United States wants to blunt China’s ability to weaponize minerals. China wants to remind the world that processing capacity beats speeches. Between them sit supply chains that feed everything from smartphones to stealth aircraft.

One thing is clear. The bill for strategic dependence always comes due. The only open question is who pays it first and who pays it longer.

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100% Tarriff on China from Nov 1st pic.twitter.com/egO9gXJGf5

— Micah (@Kazaweb3) October 10, 2025

“Like a Machine Gun”: Four Dead, 20 Wounded in St. Helena Bar Mass Shooting

A crowded Saturday night at Willie’s Bar and Grill on St. Helena Island ended in chaos a few minutes before 1 a.m. Sunday. Gunfire ripped through the parking lot and spilled inside, leaving four people dead and at least twenty wounded, according to the Beaufort County Sheriff’s Office. Deputies arrived to a crush of panicked patrons and multiple victims on the ground. Four of the wounded were rushed away in critical condition. Names have not been released as families are notified.

Owner Willie Turral said the first bursts started outside. Inside, he heard what sounded like a machine gun. Patrons broke for cover and sprinted toward nearby businesses and dark yards. Paramedics worked at CPR in the lot while deputies tried to secure a scene that had been packed with hundreds of people minutes earlier.

The shooting shook a community that carries a deep Gullah Geechee heritage. St. Helena Island is not a dot on a map. It is a cultural anchor on the South Carolina coast where families trace their roots across centuries. The bar sits in the middle of that life, a gathering spot with food, music, and familiar faces. The contrast between a normal weekend night and the aftermath of triage feels like a gut punch.

Investigators are working leads and have spoken of a person of interest. No arrests had been announced by midday. Detectives are asking for tips and for anyone with videos or firsthand accounts to come forward. The first hours matter in a case like this. Shell casings, camera angles, and the memory of a witness can pull a blurry picture into focus.

Elected officials expressed outrage and grief. Congresswoman Nancy Mace called the shooting heartbreaking and offered prayers for the victims and their families. That sentiment echoes across Beaufort County today, but it does not answer the question that rises after the sirens fade. What kept a good night from ending like every other one? Who brought that firepower into a place that serves cold beer and wings and plays music for locals? Those answers will come from the methodical work now underway.

For now, the measure of the damage is plain. Four lives gone. Families waiting on phone calls no one wants to receive. A tight-knit island trying to catch its breath. If you saw something, say something to the sheriff’s office. In a community like St. Helena, silence helps the shooter.

Information helps your neighbors.

 

Trump and Sisi Try to Lock In Gaza Peace at Sharm el-Sheikh

Call it the hardest room in the world. On Monday in Sharm el-Sheikh, President Donald Trump and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi will co-chair a summit built to do one thing that matters: turn a fragile ceasefire into a roadmap that ends the Gaza war and holds when the cameras leave. The guest list is thick with power. More than twenty heads of state and the UN chief are expected, with London, Paris, Ankara, Amman, and others represented at the table.

The backdrop is a phased deal that has already produced a lull in the shooting and a hostage-prisoner exchange. Phase One is ceasefire mechanics and human beings going home. Phase Two is the real knife fight. It calls for Hamas to disarm, a technocratic authority to run Gaza, and an International Stabilization Force to keep order while reconstruction begins. Trump wants guarantors led by the United States, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey to sign their names in ink and then act like it means something.

You will not see Hamas or the Israeli government in the room. This summit is about the people who can squeeze levers and cut checks. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is expected to send a signal toward future governance in Gaza if reforms are implemented where they need to be. Several Arab capitals are being pressed to bankroll the rebuild and tie money to benchmarks that improve daily life fast. If that machine starts, you can pry momentum away from the next round of rockets.

The politics are rough. Hamas figures say disarmament is off the table. Israel has balked at giving the Palestinian Authority a clean lane back into Gaza. That is why the guarantors matter. If Doha and Ankara enforce compliance, and Washington and Cairo back them with pressure and logistics, the plan has muscle. If they hedge, the ceasefire frays and we are back to the start.

Trump will stop in Israel first to speak at the Knesset and meet families of recently released hostages, then fly to Egypt for the main event. The message he wants to project is momentum and control. The test will be verification and consequences. Promises are easy at a Red Sea resort.

Verification is what keeps the next mother from digging through rubble.

Bottom line. Sharm el-Sheikh is a chance to convert a pause into a plan. The summit will measure whether the guarantors are willing to spend political capital, money, and credibility to make Phase Two real.

If they do, Gaza gets a path out of the tunnel. If they do not, the tunnel gets longer.

 

 

 

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