Putin, in fear that Ukraine’s democratic movement would have a domino effect against his rule, would send the infamous “little green men,” also known as Russian Forces to capture Crimea in 2014. Later that same year, under then-FSB officer Igor Girkin, Putin again ignited the War in the Donbas region. Despite sanctions, they would end up being minuscule, and business would return to as usual with Moscow, even when Eastern Europe constantly warned of Putin’s imperial ambitions.
During the height of the Syrian Civil War, Russia intervened on behalf of the longtime ruling Assad family in 2015. Repeated scorched earth tactics, such as cluster munitions on urban population centers and double tapping on cities, were again condemned, but nothing came of this except ‘strongly worded letters.’
Testing the waters of President Obama’s “red lines,” Assad, with Putin’s blessing, would again use chemical weapons during the war, which the OPCW has later verified. The lack of response to numerous war crimes under Putin’s Russia and the dictators he supported showed an unwilling resolute West, and the repeated attempts of appeasement and mediocre diplomacy led to the domino effects of the 2022 full-fledged war against Ukraine.
During the ongoing War in Ukraine, reluctance to send Kyiv weapons in fear of Putin’s “red lines” cost the Ukrainian Armed Forces vital time and manpower. One could argue the war would’ve gone a lot differently had Ukraine received long-range missiles, such as ATACMS, in mid-2022 and started training for F-16s around the same time.
Nevertheless, Ukraine would continue making battlefield progress and hold Russia to minimal gains even though much of the military assistance they requested didn’t arrive due to bureaucracy. The more the Kremlin bluffed on red lines during the war, the more Ukraine would receive vital aid, such as Challengers, Leopards, Bradleys, Storm-Shadows, SCALPs, and cluster munitions. Putin, a man who always called bluff in the West, would have his bluff called as NATO heads of state realized his aura was relegated to words only.
When Faced with Strength, Putin Has Backed Down
Putin’s strongman aura was always limited to how the average diplomat and civilian perceived him. Through the façade of fear, Putin could get away with anything he wanted, but the Russian autocrat would show signs of weakness through force countered back at him.
In 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian warplane after it violated Turkish airspace, which Putin never responded to. In 2020, Azerbaijan downed a Russian military helicopter at the end of the 2020 Karabakh War. Instead of retaliating and defending their fellow CTSO ally, Putin rewarded Azerbaijan with lands not captured by the Azerbaijani military during their offensive operations.
The Wagner Group Mutiny also presented vulnerability for the first time in Putin’s two-decade rule, and the group had nearly reached Moscow with little resistance under Lukashenko mediated the uprising. As the war in Ukraine continues to go wayward, Russian bloggers and military officers have continued to push back against Putin’s inept leadership, which has led to further retaliatory measures by the Russian autocrat.
Appeasing Putin Would Embolden his Allies
A domino effect of hesitating on military aid for Ukraine or placating Putin will have far-reaching consequences outside of Europe. Hypothetically, if Putin gets away with favorable end-of-war terms, such as annexation or nuclear weapons use, nothing stops other despots from doing so.
Ongoing heightened tensions in the Korean Peninsula, South China Sea, Taiwan Straits, and the Middle East intertwine with the international community’s response towards Russian aggression. Strongmen such as Xi Jinping, Kim Jung Il, and Ali Khamenei are all watching how the world reacts to mass deportations, filtration camps, mass graves, and nuclear threats for their conflicts against their neighbors.
Autocrats Have only Understood Strength Throughout History
There has always been one constant throughout history—autocrats only respect power. When the world placated and appeased tyrants such as Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini, Josef Stalin, Saddam Hussein, Idi Amin, and others, they left behind an endless trail of blood and untold devastation in their paths.
The world dealt with these tyrants through force when diplomacy failed or by calling them bluffs. Putin, who built his life on bluffs, has nothing left to win the war in Ukraine except his empty threats, hoping that gullible politicians will fall for his mind games and concede demands to Russia.
Ultimately, the only way to secure Ukraine and the rest of the world from Russian threats is to arm Kyiv with the tools it needs to regain its territory. The more Putin continues to escalate a war in which he still hasn’t reached a single primary objective, the more degraded the Russian military and labor force will be for the next several decades.
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