Editor’s Note: This piece first appeared at Warrior Maven on August 4th. It is used here with permission. Warrior Maven is a member of Military Content Group (MCG) By Kris Osborn, President, Warrior

Decimation of Russian Armor: A New Era of Warfare

Javelin Anti-Tank Missiles, NLAWS, Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems, armed drones and other kinds of anti-armor weapons have massively “decimated” Russian tanks for several years now, a combat reality which seems to be immeasurably impacting concepts of operation for future warfare.

Is there still a place for heavy armor? Perhaps yes, but militaries around the world are watching and preparing for future wars with emerging lessons now being learned in Ukraine. A significant new Army Intelligence report identifies these trends as fundamental to needed preparations for future warfare environments. There are several key new findings published in the research essay, called “The Operational Environment 2024-2034 Large-Scale Combat Operations.” (US Army Training and Doctrine Command, G2), citing anticipated warfare weapons and tactics in the next decade. Key trends identified by the research, which examined emerging technologies and current conflicts throughout the globe, include the rapid “urbanization” of warfare, massive proliferation of air and ground drones, firing of mass and precision artillery, ubiquitous sensors creating a transparent battlefield and dismounted anti-armor urban warfare tactics.

Urban Warfare: Lessons from Ukraine

The text of the report cites “anti-tank guided missiles,” “UAS combined with fires” as being used to “great effect” by Ukrainian Armed Forces. As part of its assessment, the research provides exact, previously unseen official calculations of the actual number of Russian main battle tanks destroyed by Ukranian forces.

“Ukrainian Armed Forces have used vast quantities of man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS), antitank guided missiles, and FPV UAS—combined with fires—to great effect. As of July 2024, Russia has lost 3,197 main battle tanks—more than its entire active-duty inventory at the outset of conflict—and 6,160 armored fighting vehicles, forcing them to pull increasingly obsolescent systems from storage,” the text of the report states.

These are significant numbers and the military impact has been nothing less than monumental, given that Russia’s entire active tank force has been destroyed. An interesting website cataloging Russian tank and armored vehicle losses called Oryx said reported Russian tank losses to number in the 2,000s as of several months ago, yet that appeared to be based on only what had been photographed or documented. The actual numbers of destroyed Russian tanks, appears even higher according to the Army report.

The words “more than its entire active-duty inventory” from the report almost jump off the page in a way that offers convincing evidence that indeed dispersed, dismounted kinds of ambushes and anti-armor hit-and-run-strikes from hidden or strategically advantageous positions using terrain or buildings to obscure attack locations.  Elevation has proved to be a useful tactic, as Russian tanks have shown to be quite vulnerable to strikes from above as protection on the top of the vehicle is much lighter. Accordingly, Ukrainian forces have used elevated attack positions to exploit this vulnerability, destroying thousands of tanks.  Ukrainian forces also used urban structures such as narrowly configured passageways, bridges and other urban structures to optimize surprise attacks on advancing Russian armored vehicles. The Army intel report specifically cites these tactical realities associated with rapid urbanization, having closely studied the Ukraine war and emerging weapons.  In a section titled “Dense Urban Warfare,” the Army essay explains that as much as 68-percent of the world’s population will live in urban areas by 2050.