Medvedev emphasized the growing risk of nuclear war as the West continues to send arms supplies to Ukraine. He warned that the West underestimates its actions’ potential consequences and that a nuclear conflict could be triggered if Russia is pushed too far.
Factors to Prolong the War
Since the onset of the war, many analyses and even war games have predicted the likelihood of the conflict extending for a few more years.
Think tank RAND Corp earlier this year discussed in an in-depth report the factors that could contribute to a decade-long war and possible resolutions that can be considered to avoid one.
Military analysts and experts have considered the animosity between Russia and Ukraine, which has seemed irreparable since the invasion, among the many factors that could contribute to a decade-long war. The strong sentiments against each other make peaceful negotiations almost impossible unless one side finally heeds and surrenders, akin to moving a mountain. However, another significant factor that could further prolong the war is the looming threat of nuclear weapons, which Russia has continuously threatened to use since the inception of the invasion.
On May 26, a deadly Russian missile strike destroyed a clinic in #Dnipro. According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, the strike killed at least one person and injured 15.
Two children, aged 3 and 6, are among the injured, according to the local authorities. pic.twitter.com/SFZjzZzmqs
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 26, 2023
While some believe it to be unlikely, there remains a chance that Moscow could resort to their deployment. The devastating consequences of such an action would undoubtedly affect both sides and could escalate the conflict into a broader and more destructive war. Additionally, the involvement of NATO and the United States will play a crucial role in determining the eventual outcome of the conflict.
Previously, the US has made it clear that it would retaliate one way or another if Russia utilized its large arsenal of nuclear weapons against Ukraine, which would consequently cause a devastating chain reaction and catastrophic events.
A Decade-Long War: Pros and Cons
Besides the threat of nuclear war, a prolonged conflict presents a benefit for Ukraine. It may ease its gradual retake of the territories Russia had taken, including Crimea and Donbas, given that the West continues to be consistent with its support.
As Rand Corp cited in its report, a long war would also mean degradation in the Russian military and economy while keeping itself busy from becoming a menace to other countries. Furthermore, it will urge the rest of Europe to lessen its energy dependency on Russia and invest more in its defense industry, which would mean taking off the burden from the US as a major military aid provider for Ukraine.
Nevertheless, there are, of course, significant downsides to a war that could last for decades, not to mention the cost both financially and in human life. The continuous outflow of stockpiles for allies to sustain the fighting in Ukraine will also be a challenge and subsequently demand a faster rate of armament production. The chance of extending the war into a NATO-Russia conflict would also be likely. For the US, it would cause further focus split in addressing other global issues (e.g., the Korean Peninsula, China-Taiwan tensions, etc.) as resources will be poured into Ukraine. In addition, Russia could gain more territories and advance deep toward Kyiv.
A decade-long war could also impact the growth of the global economy as trading between Russia and the West will significantly decrease.
So, What Now?
As cliche as it sounds, only time can tell how long the war will last and how it will play out.
The War in Ukraine has become more complex and tragic as it continues to drag on, causing widespread death and destruction and has displaced millions of civilians. It seems the decade-long duration is possible given the current situation unless ultimately resolved, whether it be absolute victory, signing of an armistice, or meeting halfway through a political settlement. The best resolution is to bring belligerents and their sentiments t0 the discussion table, navigate a way around the animosity, and settle matters by meeting halfway.
In the meantime, the West must continue to support Ukraine while also working to de-escalate the situation and prevent a wider conflict.
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