The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: How the Conflict Has Evolved and the Potential for a Decade-Long War

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a long history, dating back to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. Since then, there have been several armed conflicts between the two, including the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014 and the most recent, ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The war has dragged on for over 15 months, with some analysts seeing a possible extension that could last for years.

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the illegal and unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. He justified the move as declaring the Kremlin’s efforts to seek its primary objective, which was to “demilitarize and denazify” and to protect its people living in Ukraine.

Underestimating the resistance of the Ukrainian people, what Putin intended to be a quick, short-armed confrontation dragged on for months. And while the duration of the war has since become a widespread discussion by analysts and military experts across the globe, a senior ally of Putin recently shared his two cents on the matter.

War Could Drag On for a Decade

In an interview with Russian state media, Dmitry Medvedev, the current deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, said that the war in Ukraine could last for “a very long time,” or even decades.

He also said that Western sanctions would not deter Russia, and they would probably continue fighting until it achieved its objectives, as the country will not trust any truce, especially with Ukraine’s current leader President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Furthermore, Medvedev stressed that any peaceful resolution would be impossible as long as people like “the clown Zelensky” stayed in power.

His recent remarks highlighted the two countries’ deep animosity, further fueling the armed conflict. Therefore, will need to be a defining moment for each side to settle the confrontation and reach a peaceful resolution at the bargaining table.

🇷🇺Security Council Deputy Chair Dmitry #Medvedev: In the West, there is no one to talk to about security guarantees. They do not seek peace, they want war. They do not seek cooperation, they want confrontation. pic.twitter.com/IkqUEdlxnr

— Russian Embassy, UK (@RussianEmbassy) May 23, 2023

Medvedev, who served as president of Russia from 2008 to 2012, was once seen as a liberal modernizer. However, he has since switched his sentiments, leaning firmly toward anti-Western sentiments. Moreover, he has been a vocal supporter of the Kremlin’s so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine. He has repeatedly accused the West of provoking Russia by providing military aid to Ukraine, likewise, among those Russian diplomats who have threatened anyone who will intervene in the conflict with nuclear war.

Medvedev emphasized the growing risk of nuclear war as the West continues to send arms supplies to Ukraine. He warned that the West underestimates its actions’ potential consequences and that a nuclear conflict could be triggered if Russia is pushed too far.

Factors to Prolong the War

Since the onset of the war, many analyses and even war games have predicted the likelihood of the conflict extending for a few more years.

Think tank RAND Corp earlier this year discussed in an in-depth report the factors that could contribute to a decade-long war and possible resolutions that can be considered to avoid one.

Military analysts and experts have considered the animosity between Russia and Ukraine, which has seemed irreparable since the invasion, among the many factors that could contribute to a decade-long war. The strong sentiments against each other make peaceful negotiations almost impossible unless one side finally heeds and surrenders, akin to moving a mountain. However, another significant factor that could further prolong the war is the looming threat of nuclear weapons, which Russia has continuously threatened to use since the inception of the invasion.

On May 26, a deadly Russian missile strike destroyed a clinic in #Dnipro. According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, the strike killed at least one person and injured 15.

Two children, aged 3 and 6, are among the injured, according to the local authorities. pic.twitter.com/SFZjzZzmqs

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 26, 2023

While some believe it to be unlikely, there remains a  chance that Moscow could resort to their deployment. The devastating consequences of such an action would undoubtedly affect both sides and could escalate the conflict into a broader and more destructive war. Additionally, the involvement of NATO and the United States will play a crucial role in determining the eventual outcome of the conflict.

Previously, the US has made it clear that it would retaliate one way or another if Russia utilized its large arsenal of nuclear weapons against Ukraine, which would consequently cause a devastating chain reaction and catastrophic events.

A Decade-Long War: Pros and Cons

Besides the threat of nuclear war, a prolonged conflict presents a benefit for Ukraine. It may ease its gradual retake of the territories Russia had taken, including Crimea and Donbas, given that the West continues to be consistent with its support.

As Rand Corp cited in its report, a long war would also mean degradation in the Russian military and economy while keeping itself busy from becoming a menace to other countries. Furthermore, it will urge the rest of Europe to lessen its energy dependency on Russia and invest more in its defense industry, which would mean taking off the burden from the US as a major military aid provider for Ukraine.

Nevertheless, there are, of course, significant downsides to a war that could last for decades, not to mention the cost both financially and in human life. The continuous outflow of stockpiles for allies to sustain the fighting in Ukraine will also be a challenge and subsequently demand a faster rate of armament production. The chance of extending the war into a NATO-Russia conflict would also be likely. For the US, it would cause further focus split in addressing other global issues (e.g., the Korean Peninsula, China-Taiwan tensions, etc.) as resources will be poured into Ukraine. In addition, Russia could gain more territories and advance deep toward Kyiv.

A decade-long war could also impact the growth of the global economy as trading between Russia and the West will significantly decrease.

So, What Now?

As cliche as it sounds, only time can tell how long the war will last and how it will play out.

The War in Ukraine has become more complex and tragic as it continues to drag on, causing widespread death and destruction and has displaced millions of civilians. It seems the decade-long duration is possible given the current situation unless ultimately resolved, whether it be absolute victory, signing of an armistice, or meeting halfway through a political settlement. The best resolution is to bring belligerents and their sentiments t0 the discussion table, navigate a way around the animosity, and settle matters by meeting halfway.

In the meantime, the West must continue to support Ukraine while also working to de-escalate the situation and prevent a wider conflict.

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