But it is important to highlight what intelligence analysis is and isn’t.
Good analysis aims to provide a solid understanding of an issue and likely outcomes, thereby informing the actions of policymakers. Conversely, analysis isn’t a magic ball that can see into the future and tell whether North Korea is going to launch a nuclear missile at Seattle.
Sherman Kent, a legendary CIA analyst and founder of the Office of National Estimates, put it best when he said that, “Intelligence does not claim infallibility for its prophecies. Intelligence merely holds that the answer which it gives is the most deeply and objectively based and carefully considered estimate.”
The latest iteration of the Global Trends Report details five potential geopolitical scenarios for 2040 that cover a wide spectrum: Some are devastating, while others resemble a future version of our current world.
Here is a brief breakdown of the scenarios.
Renaissance of Democracies
In this scenario, open democracies across the world are seeing a resurgence led by the U.S. and its allies.
Rapid technological advancements and increased cooperation between the public and private sectors are facilitating a rapid expansion of the global economy, raising more people from poverty, improving their quality of life, and involving them in their societies.
Conversely, societies with autocratic control over their citizens, such as China and Russia, are falling behind as their ability to innovate stagnates.
A World Adrift
In a very gloomy scenario, the world is a directionless, chaotic, and volatile place, as institutions and international norms and rules have collapsed and only a few countries continue to abide by them.
The major oil-producing countries, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Angola, are encountering economic stagnation, which has stoked societal divisions and political instability. China’s ascendancy continues as the West falls behind.
In this volatile world, many global challenges are left unaddressed.
Competitive Coexistence
In a scenario that resembles today, the U.S. and China are leading the world through a robust trading relationship that prioritizes economic growth.
Great-power competition continues and is still focused on geopolitical influence, strategic advantage, and technological supremacy, while each country promotes its governance model — liberal democracy in the case of the U.S. vs. communist capitalism in the case of China.
Despite the ongoing geopolitical tensions, a major war is unlikely, and global problems, such as climate change and water shortages, are managed through international cooperation and technological advances.
Separate Silos
In this gloomy future, the geopolitical scene is fragmented into several economic and security blocs of varying importance and strength.
The U.S., China, Russia, and the EU continue to be the major players, but they have been augmented by a few regional powers — presumably South Africa, India, Brazil, and even Nigeria. The blocs are self-sufficient, with reoriented supply chains and a focus on resiliency and security.
Separate sovereign cyber enclaves control the flow of information, and international trade has been disrupted. Developing countries are unwitting observers.
Tragedy and Mobilization
This scenario envisions the aftermath of a devastating global food shortage caused by climate change.
A global coalition led by the EU and China is working with non-government organizations and multilateral institutions to implement comprehensive changes to deal with climate change, depletion of natural resources, and poverty.
Rich countries are helping emerging nations deal with the crisis and transition to low-carbon economies through aid programs and transfers of technology.
Lessons for the future
Although scenarios such as “Tragedy and Mobilization,” “Separate Silos,” and “A World Adrift” paint a dark future, they are realistic in the sense that they account for current or imminent external factors, such as a growing world population or the depletion of natural resources, that will result in global emergencies if left unaddressed.
Conversely, “Competitive Coexistence” is essentially a future version of our current world, although with a more potent China. A “Renaissance of Democracies” is the better outcome for the U.S. and the West, but effecting it would require investments in the institutions and values that differentiate those societies from autocratic states like China and Russia.
This article was written by Stavros Atlamazoglou and originally published on the Insider.
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