Biden Remains Cautious, Fearing Escalation
However, President Biden remains the biggest hurdle.
Haunted by the specter of a wider war, he has consistently prioritized restraint.
“Our expectation is that they continue to use the weapons that we’ve provided on targets inside of Ukraine,” reiterated Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III, echoing the administration’s long-held stance.
The Looming Threat of Nuclear Weapons
The potential consequences of allowing strikes inside Russia are a major concern.
Russia has repeatedly threatened to escalate the conflict, including the chilling possibility of deploying tactical nuclear weapons.
While some, like former State Department official Victoria Nuland, dismiss this as bluster, the risk cannot be entirely discounted.
“I think if the attacks are coming directly from over the line in Russia, that those bases ought to be fair game,” argued Nuland on ABC’s “This Week.”
She believes the potential benefits of crippling Russian launch sites outweigh the escalation risks.
Russia Flexes Military Muscle
Further complicating the debate is the recent Russian military exercises involving tactical nuclear weapons, seen by some as a direct response to US discussions on lifting restrictions.
This show of force underscores the potential dangers involved.
However, the administration appears less swayed by these threats than in the past.
Memories of earlier Russian nuclear anxieties, which ultimately proved unfounded, have emboldened some to take a tougher stance.
History Suggests Biden Might Budge
This shift in thinking aligns with Nuland’s experience. As a more hawkish official within the administration, she previously advocated for sending increasingly sophisticated weaponry to Ukraine, each time overcoming President Biden’s initial hesitation without triggering a wider war.
This history provides some hope that the current debate might end similarly.
Ultimately, the decision rests with President Biden.
He must weigh the potential benefits of bolstering Ukraine’s defenses against the risk of an uncontrollable escalation.
The pressure to act is mounting, both from within his administration and Ukraine.
The coming days may determine whether the US changes tack, potentially altering the course of the war and redrawing the lines of acceptable action in this devastating and drawn-out conflict.
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