A marked reduction in East-West tensions might prompt Russia to think twice about the deployment, he said.
Pifer, the former U.S. ambassador, said it was “a matter of time” before the Iskanders showed up in Kaliningrad regardless.
Kaliningrad is worrisome, he said. if you have that range of missile there you cover not only all the Baltics but probably about two thirds of Poland.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has said Moscow reserves the right to deploy the Iskanders anywhere in Russia and other senior Russian military officials have said Kaliningrad will get the Iskanders in the next few years as part of a routine nationwide upgrade.
But in the context of many similar threats that have not come to pass, Western experts are unsure if that is a bluff.
Russian experts say it isn’t.
I think the Kremlin will officially drag out the decision (on the Kaliningrad Iskanders) until 2018 or 2019 when the new Polish element of the (U.S.) missile shield will be activated and when the re-arming of other missile brigades throughout Russia with Iskanders is due to finish, said CAST’s Barabanov.
CRIMEA MOVE?
Some NATO officials privately believe Iskanders may already be in Kaliningrad; others reject that, saying they would have shown up on satellite imagery.
Barabanov said the Iskanders, once deployed to Kaliningrad, would not be armed with nuclear warheads, which are stored in other parts of Russia, but could later be if necessary.
Deploying nuclear warheads in Kaliningrad would be a separate and serious phase of escalation, he said. Konovalov said arming the missiles with nuclear warheads would be a return to a full-scale Cold War, something he said nobody wanted.
Read More: Reuters
Featured Image – Transporter erector launcher “Iskander-E” with two missiles and “Tochka-U” launcher – Via Wikimedia Creative Commons License
COMMENTS