With shale gas, the US will have sufficient natural gas to meet domestic needs and generate potential global exports for decades to come. increased oil production from difficult-to-access oil deposits would result in a substantial reduction in the Us net trade balance and faster economic expansion. Global spare capacity may exceed over 8 million barrels, at which point OPEC would lose price control and crude oil prices would collapse, causing a major negative impact on oil-export economies.

Although energy independence is a positive development, and would allow America to stop propping up autocratic regimes we need to keep stable to maintain access to their oil fields, this independence may also lead to less American influence in certain parts of the world.  Jan Kalicki also writes in his recent book, Energy and Security, that:

Energy security has eluded generations of Americans, even as every president since Richard Nixon has warned of the dangers of dependency on foreign oil. But the discovery of energy resources in North America is a game changer. Today, the United States is on the verge of vaulting from being a net importer to being a net exporter of oil and natural gas by 2030— or even earlier. This quest— to borrow Daniel Yergin’s term— for an energy solution will have enormous economic, environmental, and geopolitical implications for the United States and the world. More than 100 years ago, when he was the president of Princeton, Woodrow Wilson said, “We live in an age disturbed, confused, bewildered, afraid of its own forces, in search not merely of its road but even of its direction.” In 2013, our nation is at a similar crossroads— and the new energy landscape positions America to lead.

Global Trends 2030 predicts four possible visions for what the world may look like in the near future. One of them is America withdrawing from the international arena: “Without completely disengaging, the U.S. no longer tries to play ‘global policeman’ on every security threat. Many of the energy producers suffer from declining energy prices, failing to diversify their economies in time, and are threatened by internal conflicts.”

In “Occupied,” America throws the democratically elected government of Norway to the wolves. Once the Russians are in Norway, they are not leaving no matter what efforts the government takes to appease and acquiesce to the wishes of Moscow. As Zbigniew Brzezinski testified to Congress over a year ago in regards to Russian aggression in Eastern Europe, Putin is actively seeking to prevent former Soviet states in Eastern Europe from creating a Western identity.

To this end, he has actively sought to destabilize Ukraine politically and economically. In his testimony to the armed services committee, Dr. Brzezinski points out that we should deploy some “tripwire” contingency forces to Latvia and Estonia—small numbers of NATO troops so that if Russia thinks about invading these countries, they will know that they will face NATO as a result. Henry Kissinger writes in his book “World Order” that, “Having downgraded its military capacities, Europe has little scope to respond when universal norms are flouted.”

Without NATO engagement, with significant American support, Europe will be cast adrift and left to the infernal machinations of a Russia trying to drive internal nationalistic sentiments to distract their citizens from the very serious economic crisis they are facing. As the National Security Council report states, “A collapse or sudden retreat of U.S. power probably would result in an extended period of global anarchy; no leading power would be likely to replace the United states as guarantor of the international order.”