The border between Poland and Belarus is known as Belarussia or “White Russia.” Belarus recently announced that 9,000 Russian troops, 170 tanks, and 100 artillery pieces will be placed on this border with Poland.

Relations between Poland and Belarus have been strained for years as thousands of Iraqi migrants trying to get into Western Europe were in camps in Belarus while they attempted to cross into Poland.  Belarus did not offer them settlement in its country but allowed to them to stay in camps while they tried to get into other European countries, often crossing illegally without entry visas.  Poland responded by building a wall along the border to prevent this wave of illegal immigration and declared an emergency on the border which was lifted only recently.

In October the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Warsaw advised any Poles living in Belarus to leave the country immediately.  This was followed by accusations that Belarus was searching the homes of Poles living there, releasing this statement on November 15th,

“Poland received with concern the information about searches of residential premises occupied by members of the Union of Poles in Belarus. We condemn the repressions against the community in Belarus and call on the Lukashenko regime to stop actions violating international law.”

Some 300,000 Belarusian Poles reside in Ukraine with about 20,000 being members of the Union of Poles which represents this ethnic minority in Belarus which is about 3% of the population.  Alexander Lukashenko views these Poles with great suspicion, accusing them of being at the center of a plot to stir unrest in the country against his regime.

Russia launched the northern invasion of Ukraine from Belarus

Belarus was the jump-off point for Russian forces of  Army Group North which drove on the Ukrainian capitol Kyiv in the first weeks of the war that began in late February in 2022. From the very beginning of the war, Belarus dictator Alexander Lukashenko pledged his country would stand by Russia in the conflict stating that his country was also at war with Ukraine. Lukashenko has been the only president of Belarus since the country was made independent in 1992 after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Facing a popular uprising in

In an interview with the Kyiv Post, Belarusian dissident, and exile Vitali Shkliarov stated that Belarus had little choice but to invade Ukrain at some point.

“An attack against Ukraine by Belarusian troops is only a matter of time. And it seems to me that there will be an offensive. Belarusians living in the country have no choice. Therefore, they need help to look for a different future. They need to be taught, talked to, won over, and convinced. We need to fight for the minds of Belarusians – this is more important than building a 1,084-kilometer wall on the border.”

Ukraine is not waiting to find out if this is true.

Ukraine has begun a concrete border wall topped with barbed wire and minefields in the regions of Volyn, Rivne, and Zhytomyr.  Part of this effort included the destruction of bridges across the river that runs along the border and the digging of anti-tank ditches to prevent the passage of vehicles.  This effectively closes the border between Ukraine and Belarus.

Ukraine sent some 15,000 troops to build and now defend these positions.

Belarus responded with anger and accusations that these defensive measures were provocations by Ukraine.

To forestall the possibility of an invasion of Ukraine by Belarus, the AFU(Armed Force of Ukraine) has produced a video emploring Belarusian troops to refuse to fire on Ukrainians and surrender themselves, promising them food, shelter, medical attention, and contact with loved ones in full compliance with the Geneva Accords regarding POWs.

Ukraine is done a very good job with its own propaganda and the video above is similar to those disseminated on social media platforms for Russian troops.  This format must have been successful since it is being used against Belarus troops.

Could Belarus Invade Ukraine?

In a word, “Yes.”  Belarus has a full-time army strength of 45,000 troops on active duty, 290,000 Reservists, and 110,000 paramilitary troops which would include border guards, internal security troops, and police.  Its ground forces are comprised of;

600 tanks,

1500 fighting vehicles,

480 self-propelled guns

220 pieces of towed artillery.

230 pieces of rocket artillery.

38 fighter aircraft,

67 attack aircraft,

62 transport helicopters

21 attack helicopters.

This would constitute a fairly powerful army if all its personnel were available and its equipment in working condition and actually present.  Since the war began though, there are persistent reports that Belarus has had to strip its own army of tanks, APCs, guns, and helicopters to replace Russian battle losses. Add to that the usual number that is non-functioning because of a lack of maintenance and the threat this army poses begins to dwindle in the mind.

There is also the question as to whether Belarusian troops are willing to die inUkraine for the sole benefit of Russia. So far, Russia had not met much success in getting its own troops to fight against Ukraine, There is good reason for doubt that the army of Belarus would fight much better. In fact, they might do far worse, if that is possible. The Russo/Belarus defense pact was meant to protect Belarus from invasion, not help Russia invade one of its neighbors.

Putin eyes Belarus with some anxiety as it represents an open flank in the north into Russia.  Should NATO become directly involved in the conflict, the armies of Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania would march right over Belarus.  This Russian fear of Belarus being overrun and used as the jumping-off point for an invasion of Russia by NATO may be at the heart of Lukashenko’s stated aims in the conflict which has so far avoided sending troops into Ukraine,

 In October, Lukashenko said in a Reuters story that his country’s involvement in the Ukraine war was intended to prevent its spread into his country and “prevent an attack on Belarus under the guise of a special military operation from Poland, Lithuania and Latvia”.

“As I have said, nobody will shoot the Russians in the back from the territory of Belarus,”

 This may be the most important part that Belarus can play in this war. As long as his army poses the threat of invading Ukraine, it forces Kyiv to keep a certain number of its troops tied up at the border and unable to fight Russia in the western and southern parts of the war zone.  Were Belarus to invade Ukraine and be badly mauled in the process, the public backlash could unseat Lukashenko and see him replaced with a government unfriendly to Putin and Russia.  Currently, Russia doesn’t have the means to supply Belarus with new equipment or supplies so it would be more interested in keeping Lukashenko’s army intact. The 9,000 Russian troops sent to Belarus recently may be there to help keep Lukashenko in power should a public uprising begin.  They could also be recently mobilized conscripts sent there for training.

 While Ukraine is smart to take no chances with a sizable Belarusian army allied with Russia only a few hours’ drive from Kyiv, its actions so far seem more precautionary and defensive.  Belarus is likely to remain out of the war for the foreseeable future.