Devastation in Jabalia, North Gaza—homes reduced to rubble, 2024. (Image grab via X)
The recently proposed ceasefire draft between Israel and Hamas outlines a roadmap to halt fighting, secure the release of hostages, and bring humanitarian relief to Gaza.
While the draft holds the potential for a temporary reprieve, it faces numerous challenges in implementation and sustainability.
This article explores the key phases of the deal, its implications, and the obstacles that could jeopardize its success.
Phase 1: Immediate Measures and Hostage-Prisoner Exchanges
The first phase of the ceasefire focuses on halting violence and addressing the immediate humanitarian crisis.
Fighting is set to stop for 42 days, with Israeli forces withdrawing to a buffer zone along Gaza’s borders. This would allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes, many of which have been severely damaged or destroyed during the conflict.
Additionally, aid flows are expected to ramp up significantly, with hundreds of trucks delivering food, medicine, and other supplies daily.
Hamas has agreed to release 33 hostages, including women, children, and older civilians, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
The recently proposed ceasefire draft between Israel and Hamas outlines a roadmap to halt fighting, secure the release of hostages, and bring humanitarian relief to Gaza.
While the draft holds the potential for a temporary reprieve, it faces numerous challenges in implementation and sustainability.
This article explores the key phases of the deal, its implications, and the obstacles that could jeopardize its success.
Phase 1: Immediate Measures and Hostage-Prisoner Exchanges
The first phase of the ceasefire focuses on halting violence and addressing the immediate humanitarian crisis.
Fighting is set to stop for 42 days, with Israeli forces withdrawing to a buffer zone along Gaza’s borders. This would allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes, many of which have been severely damaged or destroyed during the conflict.
Additionally, aid flows are expected to ramp up significantly, with hundreds of trucks delivering food, medicine, and other supplies daily.
Hamas has agreed to release 33 hostages, including women, children, and older civilians, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
Female soldiers held by Hamas will also be freed, with Israel releasing 50 Palestinian prisoners for each soldier.
However, complexities arise as not all hostages are held by Hamas alone; securing the cooperation of other militant groups in Gaza could pose significant challenges.
Moreover, Israel’s insistence on maintaining some control over the movement of Palestinians to prevent Hamas from rearming adds another layer of tension.
Phase 2: Negotiations and Sustainable Calm
The second phase, set to begin within the first 42 days, aims to establish a “sustainable calm” while addressing broader political and security issues.
Hamas is expected to release all remaining hostages, including male civilians and soldiers, in exchange for a full Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza.
However, this phase hinges on resolving contentious issues surrounding Gaza’s governance.
Israel demands the complete elimination of Hamas’ military and political capabilities, a condition Hamas is unlikely to accept without significant concessions.
Negotiations will need to find an alternative governance model for Gaza that satisfies both parties.
While Hamas has indicated a willingness to step aside, it may seek to retain some influence in any future government—a prospect Israel vehemently opposes.
Failure to reach an agreement during this phase could lead to a resumption of Israeli military operations, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned.
Phase 3: Reconstruction and Long-Term Stability
The third phase focuses on addressing the aftermath of the conflict and rebuilding Gaza.
The bodies of deceased Israeli hostages will be exchanged for the remains of Palestinian fighters, paving the way for a long-term reconstruction plan.
Under international supervision, efforts will include rebuilding homes, restoring infrastructure, and reopening border crossings to facilitate movement in and out of Gaza.
Despite its less contentious nature, this phase also faces hurdles. Israel’s restrictions on certain construction materials, citing security concerns, could slow reconstruction efforts.
Additionally, Israel’s plan to ban the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) from operating in Gaza complicates aid distribution.
🔹 UNRWA has provided 7M+ medical consultations in Gaza since Oct 2023. Attacks on health facilities continue.
🔹Eight newborns died of hypothermia in the last three weeks; at least 74 children killed in Jan 2025, @UNICEF… pic.twitter.com/B3p0kQtzvL
UNRWA has been a key provider of education, healthcare, and basic services for millions of Palestinian refugees, and its exclusion could leave a significant gap in humanitarian assistance.
Humanitarian Implications
The ceasefire draft acknowledges the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, where malnutrition, disease, and inadequate shelter are rampant.
Hospitals are overwhelmed, and basic services like electricity and clean water are in short supply.
The increased aid promised in the first phase could alleviate some of these challenges, but effective distribution will require overcoming logistical and security barriers.
Israel’s insistence on preventing Hamas from benefiting from aid adds another layer of complexity.
While the draft specifies that materials for rebuilding homes and infrastructure will be allowed, previous restrictions on such supplies—deemed dual-use materials—have hampered similar efforts.
Ensuring that aid reaches those in need without empowering militant groups will require careful coordination and oversight.
Challenges to Implementation
The proposed ceasefire is fraught with potential pitfalls.
One major concern is whether both sides can adhere to the terms of the agreement.
Hamas has agreed to the draft, but Israeli officials have indicated that details are still being finalized, leaving room for changes or even a collapse of the deal.
Disagreements over security measures, such as Israel’s control of the Netzarim Corridor and inspections for Palestinians returning to northern Gaza, could lead to friction during the initial phase.
Another challenge lies in the lack of written guarantees for extending the ceasefire into the second phase.
While Hamas has settled for verbal assurances from the US, Egypt, and Qatar, Israel’s government has given no such commitments. This uncertainty could undermine trust and make it difficult to sustain the momentum needed for further negotiations.
Conclusion
The proposed Israel-Hamas ceasefire draft represents a glimmer of hope in a conflict marked by devastation and human suffering.
Its phased approach offers a framework for addressing immediate humanitarian needs, securing the release of hostages, and paving the way for long-term reconstruction.
However, the deal’s success depends on resolving deeply entrenched political and security issues, as well as maintaining trust between the parties involved.
Without significant progress in the second phase, the ceasefire risks collapsing, potentially reigniting violence and further complicating the humanitarian crisis.
The international community—particularly the US, Egypt, and Qatar—will play a crucial role in mediating negotiations and ensuring that both sides uphold their commitments.
While the road ahead is fraught with challenges, the ceasefire draft offers a chance to break the cycle of violence and work toward a more stable and peaceful future for Gaza and the region.
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