Analyzing the Northern Front Between Israel and Hezbollah

Hezbollah’s Response to the Israel-Hamas War

On October 7th, 2023, Hamas committed one of the most appalling terrorist attacks in modern history, killing upwards of 1200 Israeli civilians and foreigners. Immediately after, Israel would declare war for the first time in fifty years with an emergency government formed around Benjamin Netanyahu.

The subsequent aerial campaign against Hamas has been blistering, with more per capita airstrikes in the Gaza Strip than the height of the anti-ISIS coalition several years ago. The Israeli Defense Forces are currently conducting their ground offensive, capturing key positions and seizing numerous weapons caches in the Strip.

In the backdrop of the war, brewing tensions continue along the Israeli-Lebanese border. Daily clashes are currently ongoing between the IDF and Hezbollah, a designated terrorist organization in much of the West. Preparing contingencies between each other, both parties acknowledge the risks of a full-fledged war. Tel Aviv, with advice from, is taking proactive measures to combat the Iranian proxy, attempting to avoid a more significant regional conflict.

How Israel is Combating Hezbollah

Supplementing pressure off Hamas in light of Israel’s air campaign, Hezbollah has launched low-level anti-tank missiles and mortars at Israeli outposts and communication networks. In return, the IDF is conducting artillery, air, and drone strikes directly at launching pads from the militant group.

A key focus for the IDF is to avoid being baited in an invasion of Southern Lebanon with the punishing terrain there. In the 2006 war, the rigid terrain of South Lebanon proved to be Hezbollah’s greatest defense as Merkava tanks faced issues, and the Iranian-backed group would take advantage through insurgent-style attacks.

Learning from the operational mistakes of the 2006 war, the IDF is no longer playing in Hezbollah’s hands but instead making them play by Israel’s own rules. Already having some of the best pilots today and advanced drone technology, Tel Aviv is resorting to precision attacks against rocket, anti-tank, and mortar teams.

GPS scrambling over Israeli airspace is leaving Hezbollah exposed, as their missiles cannot correctly identify military targets, drones, or warplanes, as the group usually has. Striking the militia’s logistics instead of their villages directly keeps both Israel and Hezbollah in low-level confrontation, which mitigates the escalation ladder (at least for now).

Keeping a tit-for-tat low-level confrontation (for now), both Hezbollah and Israel are trying to mitigate a wider war while keeping a doctrine of a show of force towards each other.

Western Deterrence at the Forefront

A significant factor in deterring Hezbollah is the ongoing presence of the American naval buildup in the region. In the aftermath of the October 7th Attacks, two carrier strike groups, the Ford and Eisenhower, are currently patrolling across the Middle East, and the US nuclear submarine, the Ohio-class USS Florida, is also supplementing support.

During his first speech in lieu of Israel’s military operation in Gaza, Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah, hinted at the presence and potential intervention of American forces as one of the reasons why the war has not gone regional yet.

Keeping a threshold of deterrence mitigates a regional war in the Middle East and sends a message directly to other adversaries abroad. Other despots planning prolonged conflicts, such as Vladimir Putin, Nicholas Maduro, Xi Jinping, Kim Jong Un, Ilham Aliyev, and Tayyip Erdogan, are all testing the waters of international response to crisis’ as they all eye the territory of neighboring countries.

Overall Assessment

The Northern front remains restive, but it can become a powder keg with one wrong move by either side. Both Israel and Hezbollah realize an all-out war would lead to hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties and massive infrastructural damage between both Levantine nations.

Nevertheless, Israel’s cabinet and defense ministry realize war may be inevitable in the future with Hezbollah. Likewise, the Iranian-backed militia knows if Hamas is destroyed, the IDF can allocate resources to fortify their northern borders for future operations even more.

Though Hassan Nasrallah is more pragmatic in his approach, as he took full credit for the near-cataclysmic 2006 war and its consequences, his followers may not be as patient.

Hezbollah, once beloved in Lebanon and the Middle East for fighting the Israeli occupation, has lost its credibility and popular support in the Arab world as their true nature was revealed when they became mercenaries for hire by Bashar al-Assad to butcher Syrians. The organization’s ongoing pushback against the Beirut Blast investigation and warlike rhetoric against Israel and Christian parties in Lebanon has also further isolated the group.

Nasrallah may find himself in a catch-22 as his radicalized Shiite followers want an all-out war. In contrast, the Secretary-General and Supreme Leader of Iran both realize the said consequences of a regional war. Nasrallah could find himself overthrown by the same people he radicalized—and that scenario for Israel may be a nightmare as Hezbollah would not have a solid command structure to keep the militia at bay.

Due to the threat of escalation on the northern border, even with minimal clashes, US troops may have a prolonged deployment in the region—but the danger of a possible regional war remains. Israel also realizes they can reorganize forces to the northern regions when Hamas is incapacitated, and concerns over Hezbollah’s presence on the border will ultimately bring an inevitable war.

Hezbollah realizes they will lose a valuable ally, which hampers the group’s freedom of movement. At the same time, Israel knows their country will never be genuinely secured until the militia is combat ineffective. While the northern front remains relatively restive and ‘fluid,’ the possibility of war between both belligerents should not be underestimated.