Fentanyl seizures at the U.S.-Mexico border have dropped off a cliff in recent months, marking a sharp reversal from the steady climb seen over the past several years. Between January and April 2025, U.S. authorities confiscated around 3,159 pounds of the deadly drug—a whopping 48% decrease compared to the same stretch in 2024. That’s not a one-off dip, either. Seizures were already down 21% in fiscal year 2024 compared to 2023, and the downward momentum has carried into fiscal year 2025, with numbers between October and January showing a 22% drop from the same time the previous year, and 38% lower than two years ago.

No one seems entirely sure what’s driving this sudden slump, but there are a few possible culprits. Some reports point to internal chaos among Mexican cartels—particularly a supposed crackdown on fentanyl production in the Sinaloa region. Others suggest that broader access to overdose-reversal drugs like naloxone or a dip in user demand could be shifting the tide. What hasn’t changed is where the fentanyl is coming through: nearly all of it is still being seized at legal ports of entry, especially in Arizona and California, rather than in the no-man’s-land between official crossings.

Interestingly, the decline in seizures lines up with a 24% drop in fentanyl-related overdose deaths in the U.S. from fiscal year 2023 to 2024. You’d think a development like that might make headlines, but Washington hasn’t made much noise about it. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has kept its focus on hammering cartel activity and even rolled out new tariffs on both Mexico and Canada in response to the ongoing fentanyl crisis.