Another Senator who could tip the odds in favor of a Democratic block of a potential Trump appointee is Mitt Romney of Utah. Senator Romney gained the political spotlight when he broke ranks with his fellow Republicans and voted in favor of the President’s impeachment in February of this year. While Romney hasn’t officially stated whether or not he would support the President in his nomination, his newfound cache could make him an important piece of the political morass that is sure to mire the Senate in the coming weeks.
President Trump has been absolute about his intentions. In statements he made to the press on Saturday evening, the President said he would work to make an appointment in the next week. If the Republican majority in the Senate holds, the approval of President Trump’s nominee could be a simple matter.
But political analysts are already marking the delicate nature of this moment. There are 35 Senators facing re-election in 2020. Among those 35, at least six are Republicans facing tough races. For those Senators, the decision to back or block the President’s Supreme Court nominee could mean losing to Democratic challengers, especially in “toss-up” states like Maine, Colorado, Iowa, and Georgia.
President Trump could endeavor to court more women voters with a female appointee — a move he has already said he would likely make — while Biden, will try and battle at the Senate alongside his VP pick Senator Kamala Harris. Biden will call on Senators to replicate the decision that the Republican Senate made in 2016 and grant the appointment to whoever wins the November election. President Trump will count on that same Republican majority to walk his appointment to the bench.
The Senate, where Republicans hold a 53-47 (technically 45 Democrats and two Independents) majority, is slated to hold its next session just weeks after the election. Should the Senate be split, Vice President Pence will have the swaying vote.
Whichever course unfolds, there are already rumblings that this appointment — and who will get to make it — is more important that who wins in November.
But possibly even figuring out the winner on election day could be chaotic. In 2000, confusion over vote tallying methods in Florida led to the Supreme Court’s involvement. The Supreme Court ruled that the original vote certification should stand, thus awarding Bush Florida’s 25 electoral votes and granting him 271 electoral votes, one more than is required to win the college. The decision sparked protests and undermined President Bush’s first months in office.
Experts and media alike are already predicting confusion in the 2020 general election. The Trump administration has predicted mass fraud owing to mail-in ballots. At the same time, the liberal media has already started taking shots at voting safety, saying that the threat of coronavirus will dampen voter turnout and skew the results in Trump’s favor. Both candidates are already preparing the American people for the possibility of a count lasting weeks or months.
If an election decision were to be sought from the Supreme Court, with a Trump appointee in place, it’s likely that many Americans will accuse the President of having engineered the court to ensure his second term. On the other hand, should the court, with a Trump-appointee on the bench, make a decision in favor of Biden, Senate Republicans would go to war. Even worse, should a Trump appointee get blocked by a bipartisan Senate vote, an eight-member court could have to intervene and could, potentially, be split.
In such a case, the decision would revert back to the State court level. And should vote-counting cases be under adjudication in multiple States, things could get hairy. In summary, a Supreme Court split could unstitch the country and leave the American people leaderless, or worse yet, with two leaders vying for the most powerful seat in the free world.
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