However, Russian oil exports continue to flow. Moscow redirected shipments toward Asia, particularly China and India, often at discounted rates. The Kremlin has used a “shadow fleet” of tankers and alternative payment mechanisms to bypass some restrictions. While revenues have dropped, they have not collapsed.
Oil remains the backbone of Russia’s wartime economy. Even at lower margins, sustained exports provide foreign currency and fiscal space for military spending. Defense expenditures have risen as a share of the national budget. Industrial production has shifted toward munitions, armored vehicles, and drone manufacturing.
The economic picture therefore reflects contraction rather than crisis. Russia absorbs inefficiencies and sanctions-related costs but maintains sufficient revenue to finance continued operations. Long-term sustainability remains uncertain; short-term capacity to wage war persists.
Ukraine’s Strategic Position and Western Commitments
Ukraine enters the fifth year of full-scale war with institutional resilience but limited strategic flexibility. Mobilization continues. Training pipelines expand in coordination with NATO partners. Kyiv seeks additional air defense systems, long-range strike capabilities, and sustained ammunition deliveries.
Political dynamics in Western capitals influence the tempo of support. Budget debates and election cycles in allied states create periodic uncertainty over funding packages. Ukrainian officials emphasize that predictability of assistance matters as much as volume. Defense planning requires steady supply chains rather than episodic surges.
On the battlefield, Ukrainian commanders weigh the balance between defense and selective offensive actions. Large-scale counteroffensives have given way to smaller operations aimed at improving tactical positions. Kyiv frames the war as a long campaign rather than a near-term decisive battle.
Civilian infrastructure remains under threat. Russian strikes on energy facilities seek to degrade economic capacity and morale. Ukraine has adapted by dispersing assets, repairing grids rapidly, and expanding domestic drone production. The war has accelerated institutional changes within Ukraine’s defense sector and civil society.
The Strategic Outlook
The fourth anniversary underscores a central reality: the war has evolved into a protracted conflict of attrition with global economic implications. Russia has not achieved its initial objectives of rapidly subduing Ukraine. Ukraine has not forced a strategic reversal that compels Moscow to withdraw from occupied territories.
Energy markets continue to adjust to disrupted supply patterns. European states have reduced direct reliance on Russian gas, while global oil flows reconfigure along new trade routes. The conflict shapes defense budgets, alliance planning, and military procurement decisions across Europe and North America.
Negotiated settlement remains distant. Public statements from both Moscow and Kyiv emphasize incompatible territorial positions. Diplomatic channels remain limited and largely indirect. Military operations, therefore, continue to define leverage.
Four years after the invasion, the war in Ukraine stands as a sustained test of state capacity. Russia demonstrates an ability to absorb economic shocks and maintain offensive pressure. Ukraine demonstrates institutional cohesion and battlefield adaptation under prolonged stress. The trajectory of the fifth year will depend less on singular offensives and more on cumulative endurance.
Israeli settlers set fire to mosque in occupied West Bank, deface exterior with Hebrew phrases ‘revenge’ and ‘price tag’
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A mosque in the village of Tell, south of Nablus in the occupied West Bank, was set on fire and defaced with threatening messages early today in an attack… pic.twitter.com/jB6GHgszRC— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) February 23, 2026









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