Putin’s Lies Have a Shelf Life

I was on a mission for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Ukraine in May of 2022 — four months following Putin’s failed attempt to take control of the central government in Kyiv by force. I saw firsthand the lingering impact of the massacre of civilians — a war crime — as well as the massive damage done to civil infrastructure, particularly the major bridges that were destroyed to deny Russian forces access to the national capital.

Moscow’s plan for Ukraine went off the rails almost immediately. The conflict over time has devolved into a drone and missile duel. The dead have multiplied at a startling rate. But there are legions of lies at work here. We have seen this sort of thing before.

In 1989–90, I served with the U.N. Truce Supervision Organization in both Observer Group Egypt in the Sinai Desert, and then later with Observer Group Lebanon. Some of my observer post colleagues were Russian military officers. The Soviet Union collapsed during this period, and largely based on the collective weight of the veritable cornucopia of untruths told by the Communist Party.

The emotional and psychological impact on the Russian officers was terrible. I remember one telling me sadly over one too many vodkas, “They lied to us. My whole life has been a lie.” Tragically, it has happened again — drawn from the same playbook, only this time the fantastic fabrications are in the service of a kleptocratic dictator who harbors vainglorious delusions of “Russian Empire.”

This dictator controls all levers of national power. His state news conglomerate spews pure propaganda. That effort to date has only been marginally effective, even though the only news stories told within Russia’s borders are his. Putin’s absurd attempts to convince the Russian people that the aggressor in this invasion is the defender has today lost all traction domestically.

The Russian and Ukrainian peoples know and understand one another well. Ukrainians were never “Nazis,” as Putin claimed. The former KGB officer swam well in oceans of pretense for all his adult life. His backstroke in these dark waters prior to this unwarranted conflict was often superb. But his invasion of Ukraine is a major blunder. Absolute power finally corrupted absolutely?

Ill-prepared and predominantly conscript Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in vast numbers, perhaps over one million. News of those deaths has surfaced. Putin hoped that his “Special Military Operation” would not be perceived as a real war by average Russians. But if the casualty estimates are anywhere near accurate, the longer the fight lasts, and as the Kremlin’s losses continue to mount further, the greater the danger to his rule, and he knows it.

Autocrats don’t have the luxury of developing a retirement plan. They either remain in office or they are killed. No other option exists for Putin unless the current Oval Office occupant offers him a condo hideaway in Mar-a-Lago.

Regarding casualties, and for some perspective, America lost fewer than 2,500 soldiers to hostile action in Afghanistan over a period of 20 years. Huge Russian losses demonstrate a startling level of Russian military incompetence coupled with an uber-determined Ukrainian resistance.

The entire edifice of today’s Orwellian Russian State is built on brutal repression that is supported by misrepresentation and distortions of truth. Putin has created mountains of mendacities over his more than 2 decades in power. The weight of all those lies is now enormous.

Despite the multiple absurd attempts of the Trump Administration to do Moscow’s bidding in negotiations over a possible peace deal, multiplying Western political, financial, and economic sanctions should hasten Putin’s final days. Like all tyrants, he is afraid. What will the oligarchs do when their fortunes are further depleted? What will the Russian people do now that his war of choice has become a quagmire that demands more lives?