Currently, the Ukrainian government has reported that Severodonetsk is 70% controlled by the Russians (some say 80%). This number may have gone up in recent days due to constant shelling and trouble with Ukrainian morale, but they insist that 20% is still Ukrainian held. If the Russians are successful in pushing the Ukrainians out of Severdonetsk and push onward to Lysychansk, they will now be in complete control of Luhansk – one of their war goals as they shifted their offensive from Kyiv to Donbas.
“They’re defending Sievierodonetsk and not letting them to advance to Lysychansk,” Governor of the Luhansk Region Serhiy Gaidai said. “It’s getting harder, but our military are holding back the enemy from three directions at once,” he added, posting the update just before Russia’s surrender deadline. Gaidai also added that the civilians and troops held up in Azot were somewhat vulnerable as their “psychological state is on edge.”
“Nevertheless, the Russians are close and the population is suffering, and homes are being destroyed,” referring to the heavy Russian shelling that has been the source of Ukraine’s problems in the east.
The British Defense Ministry claims that the Russian forces now control the majority of Severodonetsk, confirming that there had been extensive collateral damage throughout the city. They have also confirmed the intel that civilians and Ukrainian soldiers have been taking shelter in the Azot Chemical Plant.
“Russian forces will likely be fixed in and around Azot whilst Ukrainian fighters can survive underground. This will likely temporarily prevent Russia from re-tasking these units for missions elsewhere,” they said. “It is highly unlikely that Russia anticipated such robust opposition or such slow, attritional conflict during its original planning for the invasion.”
Some 12,000 people still remain inside Severodonetsk, compared to its pre-war population of over 100,000.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated that their losses in Severodonetsk were “painful” but encouraged the Ukrainian population to hold on as they needed to defend their country.
“We have to hold strong … The more losses the enemy suffers, (the) less strength it will have to pursue its aggression,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
#Ukraine The Azot plant in Severodonetsk is on fire after Russian artillery shelling. Ukraine says that 500 civilians, including 40 children, are hiding there. pic.twitter.com/LUjEraXY7H
— Hanna Liubakova (@HannaLiubakova) June 12, 2022
With the Ukrainians getting shelled daily, and with the final bridge linking Severodonetsk to Lysychansk being destroyed a few days ago, it will be difficult for the Ukrainians to resupply their troops that are still holding up in Severodonetsk. Furthermore, it will be difficult to get civilians out en masse without the Ukrainians clearing a definitive path out of the city, all while fighting off Russians with their constant artillery shelling.
The Russian forces have not yet encircled Severodonetsk and will be facing determined resistance from the Ukrainians for every meter of ground they take. Russia would very much like to capture the region with its economic and industrial assets intact, but in Severodonetsk, Ukraine is engaged in a “Scorched Earth” strategy forcing the Russians to destroy everything in order to capture a city reduced to rubble by the invader, If they do take the city, they will find it mostly a ghost town of smashed homes, apartments, shops and factories making it useless to Russia in terms of economic output. Pro-Russian residents that do return afterward will be little more than refugees, requiring the assistance of Russia for food, fuel, water, and heat to ward off starvation and disease. Russia will also have to foot the bill to rebuild its demolished industrial capacity.
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