Restarting Their Nuclear Program
Both South Korea and its Western allies have long anticipated the impending restart of the North’s nuclear trials since it halted the program in 2017. Suspicions further thickened as the communist-controlled region launched a series of test fires of its tactical nuclear-capable weapons last year.
Moreover, Pyongyang’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) released photos of its supreme leader inspecting the country’s latest, smaller nuclear warheads last week. Shortly after, Kim ordered an expansion of “the production of weapon-grade nuclear materials” for an unprecedented increase in the North’s arsenal.
In addition, Kim appealed to the North’s armed forces in early March to intensify military drills to ramp up defense and deterrence should a “real war” transpire. His order came just days before the opening ceremony for the large-scale joint exercise, dubbed “Freedom Shield 2023,” between Seoul and Washington draws near.
As it did last year, Pyongyang conducted test fires for its strategic missiles before and during the allies’ training operation to protest such military activity—ironically blaming the latter for causing the security instability in the region.
Kim Jong-un ordered to increase the production of nuclear weapons in the DPRK – KCNA pic.twitter.com/9xKh7MS8eq
— S p r i n t e r F a c t o r y (@Sprinterfactory) March 28, 2023
With the unveiling of the smaller lethal weapons, as well as the underwater drone capable of unleashing a super-sized radioactive tsunami, analysts predict that the seventh nuclear test is just around the corner.
In contrast, a separate analysis from the 38 North explained that it would be unlikely for the test to take place as mass production for tactical nuclear weapons was already ordered by Kim in 2022.
“I would note that Kim Jong-un has recently talked about going into mass production of nuclear warheads. And so I think it would be very out of character for a test to be done now when they’re already talking about mass production,” Jenny Town, director at the Stimson Center’s 38 North, told reporters on Monday.
Town also mentioned that no “notable” movements were detected that would indicate an imminent test at Pyongyang’s only known nuclear testing site in Punggye-ri.
Remains Under Watchlist
Whether a nuclear test is imminent, the US remains committed to closely monitoring North Korea’s movements alongside its South Korean ally.
In a recent press briefing, a Pentagon spokesperson told reporters that there had been no clear indication at the moment regarding an upcoming nuclear test. However, she noted that “we continue to monitor testing and activities of the DPRK, but our end goal here is denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” she added, referring to Pyongyang’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).
North Korea reveals new – more compact – nuclear warhead design pic.twitter.com/sO1LUjhGLB
— Joseph Dempsey (@JosephHDempsey) March 28, 2023
Still not over with the recently concluded joint drills, a KCNA commentary published on Sunday criticized South Korea and the US for continuing military exercise activities on the Korean Peninsula despite Pyongyang’s warning of its “nuclear strike capabilities” and stressed that it’s not making “empty talk.”
“It will be quite clear how the DPRK’s nukes will be used if the war deterrence does not work on those who are running amuck, not being afraid of nuclear weapons,” it said.
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