SOFREP Daily: Trump Floats Ukraine’s Future Under Russia, Hamas Delays Hostage Release, North Korea Slams US as Submarine Docks in South Korea

Welcome to Tuesday, February 11, 2025! As the week unfolds, here’s your essential briefing on defense and global affairs. Here’s what you need to know.

Trump Floats Ukraine’s Future Under Russia Ahead of Vance-Zelensky Meeting

US President Donald Trump stirred controversy by suggesting that Ukraine “may be Russian someday,” as his Vice President JD Vance prepares to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy later this week.

In an interview with Fox News, Trump also floated the idea of tying US aid to Ukraine’s rare earth minerals, saying Kyiv has “essentially agreed” to such a deal.

Trump says Ukraine has ‘essentially agreed’ to allow the US access to $500B in rare earth minerals https://t.co/dxTsKI2CgP pic.twitter.com/g868zzzbuS

— New York Post (@nypost) February 11, 2025

Meanwhile, Trump is pushing for a quick end to the war and is sending his special envoy, Keith Kellogg, to Ukraine on February 20 to draft a peace proposal.

Zelenskyy , however, insists on strong security guarantees, fearing any rushed settlement could just give Russia time to regroup.

Zelenskyy and Vance will meet at the Munich Security Conference on Friday, where US officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, will be in attendance. No Russian officials are expected.

While Trump has claimed he spoke with Putin about ending the war, the Kremlin has not confirmed the call.

The conflict continues to escalate, with Russian forces making gains in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region and launching relentless attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure.

Pentagon Blocks Transgender Recruits, Halts Transition Treatments

The Pentagon is once again shifting its stance on transgender military service.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has issued a memo barring transgender individuals from enlisting in the US military and halting gender transition treatments for those already serving.

This move follows President Donald Trump’s late January executive order aiming to exclude transgender personnel from the armed forces.

The memo, which surfaced in a court filing on Monday, states that all new enlistments from individuals with a history of gender dysphoria are paused, as well as any scheduled or planned medical procedures related to gender transition.

While it doesn’t clarify what will happen to transgender service members currently in uniform, it echoes Trump’s executive order, which argues that identifying as a gender different from one’s biological sex is incompatible with military standards.

This marks yet another policy reversal in a years-long tug-of-war over transgender military service.

The ban was lifted under the Obama administration in 2016, only for Trump to block it in 2017.

After a drawn-out legal fight, his restrictions took effect in 2019.

Biden reversed them in 2021, arguing that all qualified Americans should be able to serve.

Now, Trump’s policies are making a comeback, with Hegseth implementing the latest directive as legal battles loom once again.

Hamas Delays Hostage Release, Israel Calls It Ceasefire Violation

Tensions are rising again in Gaza after Hamas announced it is delaying the release of more Israeli hostages, claiming Israel hasn’t held up its end of the ceasefire deal.

In response, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz called the move a “complete violation” of the agreement and ordered the military to stay on high alert for potential escalation.

The release, originally scheduled for February 15, has been put on hold “until further notice,” according to Hamas’s military wing, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades.

Meanwhile, Israeli officials have informed the hostages’ families of the delay and insist that Israel is sticking to the deal.

So far, Hamas has released 16 Israeli hostages as part of the truce, along with five Thai hostages outside of the negotiated framework.

The ceasefire, in place since January 19, originally outlined that 17 more hostages should be freed before the end of its first phase.

Now, with Hamas hitting pause on releases, the fragile truce faces another major test.

North Korea Slams US as Submarine Docks in South Korea

North Korea isn’t happy with the US again—this time over a nuclear-powered US Navy submarine docking in South Korea.

Pyongyang called it a “hostile military act,” warning that these moves could push the already tense situation toward open conflict.

The USS Alexandria (SSN-757) ‘s stop at Busan naval base on Monday wasn’t the first of its kind, but North Korea sees it as another provocation.

A defense ministry spokesperson said North Korea is closely watching US military movements and stands ready to defend itself “by any means necessary.”

They also reiterated Kim Jong Un’s pledge to keep growing the country’s nuclear arsenal “indefinitely.”

🇰🇵 US poses serious security threat again by sending nuclear submarine to South Korean port, says DPRK Defense Ministry

The appearance of a US nuclear submarine on the Korean Peninsula is a “clear manifestation of the US’s continued hysteria over confrontation” with North… pic.twitter.com/N1ZiWOoORj

— Sprinter Observer (@SprinterObserve) February 11, 2025

Tensions between Washington and Pyongyang have remained high since the breakdown of Trump’s 2019 summit with Kim over sanctions relief.

Despite this, Trump recently suggested he’d reach out to Kim again, calling him a “smart guy.”

Meanwhile, North Korea has pushed back against US criticism, refusing to be labeled a “rogue state” and warning against further “provocations.”

Syria’s New Army Grows as Sharaa Rebuilds Military

Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, says thousands are voluntarily joining the country’s new army following the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the dissolution of his military.

In an interview with The Rest is Politics podcast, Sharaa emphasized that military service is no longer mandatory, and many former officers are rejoining under the new government.

Assad’s military, once backed by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, collapsed in November as Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) forces led a successful offensive.

Now, Syria’s new leadership is working to integrate various armed groups into a national military while tackling ongoing conflicts with Kurdish-led forces and Turkish-backed fighters.

Sharaa is also calling for an end to international sanctions, arguing that they were imposed on Assad’s regime and are no longer justified. He believes economic recovery is the key to Syria’s long-term stability, warning that without it, the country could descend into further chaos.

Beijing Condemns US-Japan Criticism of Its Maritime Claims

China is firing back at the US and Japan after their leaders criticized Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea.

Following a Washington meeting between President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba last Friday, the two allies issued a statement condemning China’s “unlawful” maritime claims and “provocative activities” in the contested waters.

Beijing wasn’t having it.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun called the statement an attack on China, accusing the US and Japan of meddling in its affairs and exaggerating tensions.

#FMsays In response to the latest joint statement by Washington and Tokyo, Beijing urges the #US and #Japan to strictly observe the one-China principle and their own commitments, refrain from sending wrong signals to the “Taiwan independence” forces in any form, respect China’s… pic.twitter.com/eP8QxZfEEN

— China Daily (@ChinaDaily) February 10, 2025

China has been ramping up its presence in the South China Sea, clashing with the Philippines over key reefs and islands, while also warning the US and Japan to back off on their support for Taiwan.

With the Philippines and the US-bound by a mutual defense treaty, recent skirmishes in the region have raised concerns about a broader military conflict. Meanwhile, Beijing insists that Taiwan belongs to China and has not ruled out using force to take control of the self-ruled island.

Canada, Philippines Finalize Military Cooperation Deal

Canada and the Philippines are close to finalizing a deal that would allow their troops to train and operate on each other’s soil, marking another step in Manila’s efforts to strengthen military ties amid rising tensions with China.

David Hartman, Canada’s ambassador to the Philippines, confirmed Sunday the agreement is in its final stages, with hopes for ratification by the end of 2025.

Once signed, it would pave the way for deeper defense cooperation, including Canadian participation in major military exercises alongside US and Philippine forces.

Canadian Ambassador to the Philippines David Hartman reiterated that Canada is committed to “upholding the rules-based international order” and conveyed anew its opposition to provocative Chinese activities in the area.

FULL STORY: https://t.co/gPAhvA13xZ pic.twitter.com/v4tjerb5Oj

— Philippine News Agency (@pnagovph) February 11, 2025

Manila already has similar agreements with the US and Japan and is negotiating similar deals with France and New Zealand as part of its broader strategy to counter China’s aggressive maritime claims in the South China Sea.

Meanwhile, Canada has been actively joining regional patrols alongside the US, Australia, Japan, and the Philippines to assert freedom of navigation in the contested waters.

Sources: Al Jazeera, Fox News, News Agencies, Reuters