Evening Brief: Trump Warns Israeli Strike on Iran ‘Could Very Well Happen,’ Urges Diplomacy; Ukraine Says Russian Casualties Top 1 Million as Fighting Intensifies Along Front

Wrap up your Thursday with SOFREP’s Evening Brief, delivering the top stories in defense and global affairs for June 12, 2025. Egypt detained over 200 pro-Palestinian activists ahead of a Gaza border march, but the event will proceed. Global displacement dropped slightly to 122.1 million, with Sudan now leading. Trump warned that an Israeli strike on Iran is possible, urged diplomacy. Ukraine claims Russian casualties have topped 1 million as fighting escalates. Armenia-Azerbaijan border clashes threaten stalled peace talks. An Air India 787 crashed in Ahmedabad, killing nearly all 242 on board—only one survivor confirmed.

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Egypt Detains Over 200 Pro-Palestinian Activists Ahead of Gaza Border March

Egyptian authorities detained more than 200 pro-Palestinian activists in Cairo ahead of Friday’s Global March to Gaza, which aims to protest Israel’s blockade and demand increased humanitarian aid to the Palestinian enclave.

Activists from countries including the US, France, Australia, and Algeria were held at Cairo airport and in city hotels, according to march spokesperson Saif Abukeshek.

Plainclothes officers reportedly searched belongings, seized phones, and questioned participants. Some were deported or held for hours without explanation. Footage showed packed holding rooms and deportation flights with activists chanting slogans in support of Gaza.

A lot of chaos at Cairo airport today as the Egyptian security forces are blocking the hundreds who came to Cairo to join the Global March to Gaza and are sending them back to their countries.

Egypt has also blocked buses carrying thousands of people from North Africa who came… pic.twitter.com/LDxBsWY7bg

— Dalia Ziada – داليا زيادة (@daliaziada) June 12, 2025

Despite the crackdown, organizers said the march would proceed. Around 4,000 participants from over 40 countries are expected to travel to El-Arish in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and march 50 kilometers toward the Rafah border crossing. Egypt insists all border visits must be coordinated through official channels.

The event runs alongside a separate convoy from Tunisia, which entered Libya and awaits clearance to proceed to Gaza. Israel has called on Egypt to block the march, warning it could endanger Israeli soldiers.

Egypt, while backing international pressure on Israel, has not granted formal permission for the protest.

The march comes amid global calls to expand aid access to Gaza, with the United Nations declaring it the “hungriest place on Earth” after 21 months of war. Despite detentions, organizers say they are determined to move forward with the demonstration.

Global Displacement Drops Slightly but Remains at Crisis Levels, UNHCR Reports

The number of people forcibly displaced worldwide dropped slightly from a record 123.2 million at the end of 2024 to 122.1 million by April 2025, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)’s annual Global Trends Report.

The decline is largely due to the return of nearly 2 million Syrians following the December 2024 overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad.

Despite this modest improvement, the UN warned that global displacement remains “untenably high” amid shrinking humanitarian funding and ongoing conflicts. UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi emphasized the need for renewed peace efforts and long-term solutions.

Forced displacement has almost doubled in the past decade, yet humanitarian resources remain nearly the same.

Behind the numbers are real people. Urgent action is needed to address this growing human tragedy.

More in new @Refugees report: https://t.co/2aSHofIkOI pic.twitter.com/W1IW69ORDC

— United Nations (@UN) June 12, 2025

Sudan has overtaken Syria as the largest displacement crisis, with 14.3 million refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs). Syria now has 13.5 million, followed by Afghanistan (10.3 million) and Ukraine (8.8 million).

One in 67 people globally was forcibly displaced by the end of 2024, nearly double the figure from a decade ago. While 9.8 million displaced people returned home last year—including 1.6 million refugees and 8.2 million IDPs—conflicts in places like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Myanmar, and South Sudan continue to generate fresh displacement.

Most refugees remain in neighboring countries, with Iran (3.5 million), Turkey (2.9 million), and Colombia (2.8 million) hosting the largest populations.

The UNHCR cautioned that further progress hinges on ceasefires in key regions and the availability of funding to support safe returns.

Trump Warns Israeli Strike on Iran ‘Could Very Well Happen,’ Urges Diplomacy

US President Donald Trump said Thursday that an Israeli strike on Iran “could very well happen,” though he stopped short of calling it imminent.

Trump emphasized a preference for a diplomatic resolution to Iran’s nuclear ambitions but warned Tehran that military conflict remains an option if talks fail.

The remarks followed the UN nuclear watchdog’s declaration that Iran is in breach of its non-proliferation obligations. In response, Tehran announced it would open a third uranium enrichment facility, raising concerns in Washington and among international observers.

US intelligence indicates Israel has made preparations to strike Iranian nuclear sites, though no final decision has been made. Trump, while cautioning Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu against unilateral action, ordered the withdrawal of US personnel from the region due to security risks.

Sixth-round US-Iran nuclear talks are scheduled for Sunday in Oman. Trump, however, expressed doubts about Iran’s willingness to compromise and reiterated that Iran will not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons.

NEW: The United States authorized the voluntary departure of US military dependents and began preparations for a partial US Embassy Baghdad evacuation amid new pessimism about US-Iran nuclear talks. More updates ⬇️

Some reports suggest that Iran is opposed to several provisions… pic.twitter.com/5qfH8EIBId

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) June 12, 2025

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian vowed that nuclear facilities would be rebuilt if destroyed. Meanwhile, US officials and foreign diplomats suggested the current military posturing may be intended to increase pressure on Tehran during negotiations.

The situation is further complicated by the ongoing war in Gaza, which continues to destabilize the region. Oil prices have risen amid fears of conflict escalation, adding to global economic concerns.

The UN Security Council may soon be involved if the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program deepens.

Ukraine Says Russian Casualties Top 1 Million as Fighting Intensifies Along Front

Ukrainian military officials claimed Thursday that Russian casualties in the war have surpassed 1 million, including around 250,000 killed since the February 2022 invasion.

The figure aligns with Western intelligence and was released on Russia Day, though the Kremlin did not comment.

The UK Defense Ministry and Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) also echoed similar estimates, marking what analysts call a “grisly milestone” for Moscow.

Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – June 12 2025.

Find out more about Defence Intelligence’s use of language: https://t.co/1vB3QSA41N#StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/6A054RdZ3a

— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) June 12, 2025

Despite international calls for a ceasefire, Russia continues launching massive drone and missile barrages across Ukraine. Ukrainian authorities reported at least three civilians killed and dozens wounded over the past 24 hours, including 18 in Kharkiv, where drones struck schools, homes, and kindergartens.

Ukraine responded with drone attacks targeting Russia’s Belgorod region, where a two-year-old boy was killed and others injured, according to Russian officials.

Meanwhile, Russia claimed it had captured two villages in Donetsk as it pushed its slow offensive along the eastern and northeastern front. Ukraine has not confirmed the loss.

In a rare sign of progress, both sides agreed to another prisoner exchange, returning severely wounded and ill captives. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed that the soldiers would receive immediate medical care.

pic.twitter.com/zkHODnIf0s

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) June 12, 2025

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte credited US President Donald Trump for launching direct peace talks, but criticized Moscow for assigning a hardline Kremlin loyalist, Vladimir Medinsky, as lead negotiator.

Talks remain stalled with both sides rejecting the other’s demands.

Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius arrived in Kyiv, denouncing Russia’s ongoing attacks and pledging 9 billion euros ($10.3 billion) in military aid, including long-range missile systems. He stressed Europe’s responsibility to continue supporting Ukraine as the war grinds into its third year.

Tensions Rise Along Armenia-Azerbaijan Border as Peace Talks Stall and Ceasefire Violations Surge

Nightly gunfire, growing fear, and strategic uncertainty dominate life in Armenia’s border village of Khnatsakh, where residents say Azerbaijani troops fire across the frontier, striking homes without casualties, claims Baku denies while accusing Armenia of ceasefire breaches.

The incidents come as Armenia and Azerbaijan approach a fragile stage in peace talks, with a draft treaty targeting 2026. Ceasefire violations have spiked since March, despite previous months of calm. Both sides deny firing first.

The situation is especially volatile in Armenia’s southern Syunik province, key to Azerbaijan’s push for a corridor to its Nakhchivan exclave and a critical link for Armenia to Iran, its primary regional trade partner.

Azerbaijan, emboldened after reclaiming Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 and displacing 100,000 ethnic Armenians, continues to pressure Armenia.

Experts say Baku may use low-intensity border escalations to force more concessions rather than rush toward a peace deal.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has labeled Armenia a “fascist threat” and threatened destruction, while Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan insists there will be no return to war.

Armenia and Azerbaijan, who accuse each other of ceasefire violations, have fought two major wars in the past 40 years, destabilizing the region that carries oil and gas pipelines toward Europe, and is strategically important to Russia, Iran and Turkey https://t.co/HtVD3OwThM pic.twitter.com/804tXh1Pt2

— Reuters (@Reuters) June 12, 2025

The US has warned of a “real risk” of renewed conflict. Iran, aligned with Armenia, opposes any redrawing of regional borders that could sever Armenia’s connection to its southern neighbor. Russia, once Armenia’s main ally, now leans toward Baku, adding to Yerevan’s geopolitical challenges.

Despite the fear gripping border communities, some residents remain hopeful. In Meghri, a key gateway to Iran once linked by rail to Baku, former railway workers dream of restored peace and regional connectivity. But with Azerbaijani troops positioned just 16 kilometers (10 miles) away and the corridor dispute unresolved, many in Armenia fear that a new escalation could be only a gunshot away.

Air India 787 Crashes After Takeoff in Ahmedabad, Only One Survivor Confirmed

An Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner bound for London crashed Thursday shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad, India, killing nearly all of the 242 passengers and crew on board.

Authorities confirmed only one survivor, who is currently hospitalized.

The aircraft went down in the Meghani Nagar residential area, igniting a massive fire and destroying nearby buildings.

The flight, carrying passengers from India, the UK, Portugal, and Canada, crashed five minutes after departure at 1:38 p.m. local time. Visuals showed thick black smoke and wreckage lodged atop a building that included a dining area of a medical college hostel.

The #AirIndia flight, which departed from #Ahmedabad at 13:38 hrs, was carrying 242 passengers and crew members on board the Boeing 787-8 aircraft. Of these, 169 are Indian nationals, 53 are British nationals, 1 Canadian national and 7 Portuguese nationals.
📹 Vijay Soneji pic.twitter.com/ccboJpr23g

— The Hindu (@the_hindu) June 12, 2025

Officials have yet to confirm the total death toll, including any casualties among local residents.

This is the first recorded crash of a Boeing 787, a widebody aircraft introduced in 2009. Boeing said it is gathering more information, while analysts noted the aircraft appeared to have difficulty gaining altitude.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer expressed condolences. Britain’s Indian community and the families of international passengers await updates as recovery continues. Air India has established an emergency center to assist affected families.

The tragedy in Ahmedabad has stunned and saddened us. It is heartbreaking beyond words. In this sad hour, my thoughts are with everyone affected by it. Have been in touch with Ministers and authorities who are working to assist those affected.

— Narendra Modi (@narendramodi) June 12, 2025

The crash comes just days before the Paris Air Show and deals another blow to Boeing, whose shares dropped nearly 9% following the incident. This marks India’s deadliest aviation disaster in years and adds to Boeing’s troubled safety record.

Sources: News Agencies, Reuters, The Associated Press