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Morning Brief: Japan Elects First Female to Head of Ruling Party, California Guard Head to Portland

BY Guy D. McCardle

As Sanae Takaichi shatters precedent to lead a minority government in Tokyo, Trump sends California Guard units into a courtroom fight over Portland, and Sophie Roske’s eight year sentence for plotting to kill Justice Brett Kavanaugh shows how raw and volatile the moment has become. It’s Saturday, October 4th, 2025. This is your SOFREP morning brief.

Sanae Takaichi flashes a V sign after clinching the Liberal Democratic Party leadership, putting her on track to become Japan’s first female prime minister. Image Credit: Wikimedia Commons

Sanae Takaichi Breaks Japan’s Highest Glass Ceiling

Sanae Takaichi is set to become Japan’s first female prime minister after winning the Liberal Democratic Party leadership in a runoff over Shinjiro Koizumi. She is 64, a veteran conservative with deep ties to the late Shinzo Abe, and now the face of a party trying to claw back credibility after a bruising year. Her victory follows the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who stepped down after repeated electoral setbacks that cost the ruling camp its grip on both chambers.

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If you are looking for a Thatcher comparison, Takaichi invites it. She has long pitched fiscal muscle and national resolve, and she is known for visits to Yasukuni Shrine, the flashpoint that irritates Beijing and Seoul. That symbolism matters. It signals a leader who sees history and deterrence through a hawkish lens, which will shape everything from alliance management with Washington to crisis planning around Taiwan and the East China Sea.

The domestic battlefield is no easier. Prices have climbed, patience has thinned, and the party’s once automatic majority has evaporated. Governing as a minority means doing the political trench work that conservatives often dislike, coalition horse trading, committee grind, and the slow squeeze of compromise. Voters want relief on inflation, a credible path on growth, and concrete answers on aging demographics that erode the tax base and the force structure. Takaichi has promised to steady the economy and present a tougher posture abroad, but markets will judge whether her spending instincts collide with fiscal discipline and a soft yen.

Do not expect a revolution in gender policy. This is a milestone, full stop, but many women do not see Takaichi as a standard bearer for sweeping reform. Her record leans traditional, and analysts caution that representation at the top does not equal broad progress in a country that still ranks poorly on political empowerment for women. The symbolism is powerful. The policy delta remains to be proven.

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Here is the immediate reality for the new leader. The party wants stability after scandal and losses. The opposition senses momentum. Neighbors will test resolve. Voters will grade outcomes, not headlines. Takaichi’s first moves must be clean and concrete, an inflation fight with teeth, a growth package that feels real at the household level, and a cabinet that looks like the country she leads. If she can deliver that, this breakthrough becomes more than a first. If she cannot, the glass will be intact again by spring.

 

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California Guard Heads to Portland as Legal Fight Heats Up

President Donald Trump has ordered California National Guard troops to Portland. Governor Gavin Newsom says some units that had been in Los Angeles are being redirected north, though he has warned he may sue depending on what Washington asks those troops to do. The administration frames the mission as training and support for federal agencies focused on protecting facilities, particularly Immigration and Customs Enforcement. State officials in California and Oregon call it federal overreach.

Portland is back in the national spotlight. Protests around the city’s ICE site have stretched for weeks. A conservative influencer’s arrest there added fuel and drew new federal attention. Homeland Security says it will surge personnel. The White House is also threatening funding cuts as leverage against local leaders who refuse to cooperate. City and state officials argue the city does not need federal troops and that federal pressure will raise the temperature, not lower it.

Separate from California’s move, the Pentagon has already federalized 200 members of the Oregon National Guard for a sixty day stint to protect federal property in Portland. Oregon and the city filed suit to block that order. U.S. District Judge Karin Immergut heard arguments on a temporary restraining order and could rule soon. Whatever the decision, the broader case continues.

Troops heading from California are not expected to hit Portland streets immediately. They will cycle through legal and operational briefings first, including rules on use of force and the limits of domestic military support. That is a lesson written in fresh ink. A past inspector general review found parts of the 2020 Portland federal response were undermined by poor preparation and training, even as DHS asserted authority to protect federal property. Preparation now is supposed to close those gaps.

Politics is the other battlefield. Newsom and Oregon leaders say the deployments are a power play dressed up as public safety. The Trump team says Portland’s unrest requires a firm federal hand and that ICE facilities must be secured. Expect more brinkmanship. If the court blocks the Guard activation, the administration will try other tools like more DHS badges and targeted funding threats. If the court allows it, the question becomes execution. Clear legal boundaries, disciplined command relationships, and visible restraint are the difference between cooling a crisis and lighting the fuse.

 

Eight Years For A Failed Hit On A Supreme Court Justice

He bought the ticket, then walked himself off the ride. On October 3, 2025, Sophie Roske, who used to be known as  Nicholas Roske, received 97 months in federal prison for attempting to assassinate Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh in 2022. U.S. District Judge Deborah Boardman added lifetime supervised release, a signal that the court views this as a long-term public safety risk even though Roske turned himself in before anyone was hurt.

The facts are not complicated. Roske flew from California to the D.C. area, took a cab to Kavanaugh’s Maryland home, and arrived in the dark with a handgun, a knife, zip ties, and burglary tools. He saw law enforcement on site, had what he later called a moment of clarity, and dialed 911 to confess. That call stopped a political murder from becoming a national trauma.

Motive matters here. Roske told investigators he was enraged by the leaked draft that showed Roe v. Wade in trouble and by the court’s approach to gun rights after Uvalde. Prosecutors framed the plot as an effort to coerce the government through violence, asked for 30 years to life, and labeled it terrorism. The Justice Department had previewed that stance in a sentencing memo. The judge agreed on the gravity, then landed far below the ask, citing Roske’s surrender, cooperation, and mental health crisis.

Critics will say eight years is a bit light for an attempted assassination of a sitting justice. Supporters of the sentence will point to the rare fact pattern. Intent plus capability is the usual formula. Here, capability existed, intent existed, and the act paused on the edge. A tough call either way. Reuters and AP note the government’s public displeasure and the possibility of an appeal by Attorney General Pamela Bondi. That would keep the legal fight alive while the broader security debate continues.

The takeaways are concrete. Judicial protection is not an abstraction. Visibility around high-profile residences creates predictable patterns for anyone determined to do harm. The Marshals and local police presence outside Kavanaugh’s home mattered, and probably saved Kavanaugh’s life. Threats to judges have been climbing for years, which means more resources, thicker perimeters, better intel sharing, and faster intervention when online rhetoric turns into travel plans and shopping lists. That is where policy meets street reality.

Roske will leave prison in the next decade, then live under lifetime supervision. The message should be plain. Bring politics to the ballot box, to the courtroom, and to debate halls. Bring a weapon to a judge’s doorstep, expect the weight of the system to fall on you, but perhaps a big more heavily than happened here.

 

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