The Baltic States’ Response to Russian Expansion: A Defense League Emerges

Eastern Europe has a long history of oppression under the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union and now faces threats from the Russian Federation.

Long warning Western Europe and North America of the renewed Russian imperial threat, the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are some of the top contributors to Ukrainian military and economic aid per capita.

Preparing for all scenarios of hybrid warfare or direct military confrontation from Moscow if the war in Ukraine turns sour, the Baltic states are proposing a new defensive initiative.

The Baltic Proposition of a Defense League

Already holding bilateral solid ties since the medieval period and enduring decades of oppression from the Kremlin, the Baltic states are preparing a multi-layered defense.

The memorandum, signed in Latvia’s capital of Riga, will see the three Baltic nations construct numerous bases to consolidate defenses and enhance military cooperation and intelligence gathering against Russia. Latvia’s defense minister, Andris Spruds, has called the initiative a ‘Baltic Defense Line.’

Historically, the Baltics Have Warned About the Russian Threat

The Baltic States have one of the wealthiest European cultures, including some of the older languages in the region. After establishing their medieval kingdoms, including the well-known Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Baltics would fall to a rapidly expanding Imperial Russia.

After fighting successful wars and negotiating independence against a collapsing Imperial Russia, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania became independent.

The rise of the USSR and Soviet tyrant Josef Stalin marked a dark point in the history of the Baltics, which suffered from the notorious Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. During the early years of WWII, deportations, forced labor, and executions of dissidents took place as the Soviet Union forcibly annexed the Baltics, half of Poland, and parts of Romania and Finland.

Later in WWII, the Baltics fell under the tyranny of Nazi Germany and initially thought the Germans would support independence until the Third Reich’s genocidal actions became apparent. The Soviet Union would reoccupy the Baltics and continue forced deportations, though a significant resistance movement in Lithuania continued well into the 50s.

The Baltics would lead the charge politically to gain independence from the Soviet Union as the latter started to disintegrate and collapse in the late 80s and early 90s.

In the aftermath of the dissolution of the USSR, the Baltics would continue to warn the West of the Kremlin’s imperial ambitions, as many Russian ultranationalists felt “cheated” over losing vast lands and populations when the union collapsed.

Regional Pacts Inside of NATO Strengthens the Overlaps in Security

The Baltic Defense Initiative will enhance European regional security, mainly due to turbulence in the politics of various alliance governments.

Military aid from the United States government towards Ukraine has questioned whether future American administrations will continue to supplement Europe and be seen as reliable governments.

Aside from the Baltic Defense Initiative, the Nordic states of Sweden, Finland, Norway, and Denmark have pledged to create a Joint Nordic Air Command and Initiative. Supplemented with top-tier aircraft such as Gripens, F-35s, and modernized F-16s, the Joint Nordic Air Command will fortify Europe’s Northern Flank.

Estonia is also increasing naval patrols with Finland, countering the Russian Baltic Fleet’s freedom of movement in Northern and Eastern Europe.

Preparations as the Baltics Could be a Future Target for Russia

Vladimir Putin and the renewed ambitions of Russia’s imperial turn are no secret. Russian media figures, Duma members, and Kremlin figureheads have made it no secret of their disdain for the Baltic states.

Fears of Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia becoming the following targets of Russian warfare could become a reality if the NATO alliance were to collapse internally and commitments of mutual defense do not come to fruition.

Estonia was once a victim of a significant Russian cyberattack in 2007 that brought NATO and Russia into worse relations, especially as the latter would invade Georgia only a year later. Both the Baltics and Poland recorded Russian GPS jamming in late January, which could heavily affect the region’s civilian and military aviation.

Likewise, Russia continues to test the waters of Eastern European defenses and border control as hybrid warfare took place against Estonia and Finland in late 2023, a reoccurring policy that Lithuania and Poland faced in 2021.

Though all three Baltic nations historically have small populations and militaries, closer coordination will enhance force capabilities and strengthen NATO’s eastern flank in the future.