With special thanks to Lieutenant Colonel (retired) Timothy Grimmett.
If wars were won by bombastic press conferences, the White House should already be planning another military parade in our capital’s streets. In America’s latest war of choice, President Trump’s styled Secretary of “War” is emerging as the head cheerleader for our misadventure in Iran. Mr. Hegseth has already mistakenly defined what constitutes victory — the destruction of various portions of the Iranian Navy and military production facilities. Unfortunately, his definition is flawed. Despite possessing some military experience as a junior officer, he has shown that he is completely out of his depth. For most intents and purposes, the war with Iran might have been lost before the first missile was launched.
Some of the lessons that Mr. Hegseth should have learned by now:
Operational excellence is not a guarantee of strategic success — The best military on the planet cannot win a war if the national strategic objectives selected by the National Command Authority are faulty. This fact was proven in both Afghanistan and Iraq, which like Iran, were wars of choice and not necessity. Does Mr. Hegseth grasp the gap between his definition of victory and that of his boss?
Mr. Trump has demanded “unconditional surrender” of Iran — That choice could cost many lives. America demanded unconditional surrender of both Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. The word “unconditional” suggests that there will be no negotiated settlement. The only means of achieving that objective in Germany and Japan was first a land invasion of the “Father Land” followed by the deployment of atomic bombs over Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Is this where we are heading?
The best bosses remain always open to bad news — If the boss always demands good news, good news is all that his subordinates will present to him. Mr. Hegseth only wants to focus on the number of strikes; the number of aircraft involved; and the number of targets destroyed. These figures no doubt please this Oval Office. Tragically, war by the numbers was a loser in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The numbers say nothing about an enemy’s will to resist. The senior uniformed staff in the Pentagon all know this fact. A smarter press corps would be asking what is the US strategy if Iran’s military is destroyed and the mullahs simply refuse to surrender?
Know your enemy — Mr. Hegseth also lacks a fundamental understanding of his opponent. He desperately needs a briefing on the 680CE Battle of Karbala because it is the foundational, emotional, and ideological cornerstone of Shia Islam, transforming it from a political faction into a distinct religious identity centered on martyrdom, justice, and resistance against oppression. The clerical leadership’s default position is death before surrender.
If that isn’t bad enough…
Air strikes often harden the resistance of your adversary — Every senior American military commander knows that bombing alone cannot force an enemy to give up. In fact, strikes from the air are proven to do the reverse based on our conventional non-nuclear bombing experience in WWII, and the protracted “arc light” bombing campaign in Vietnam.
One other thing — Mr. Hegseth recently stated that “no quarter” and “no mercy” is to be given in the current conflict. These statements are contrary to both US and international law — something to think hard about. More to the point, why would a regime consider any form of surrender, if there is no promise of mercy or quarter. This Pentagon chief’s understanding of war appears to be of the junior varsity variety.
It may take only one side to start a war, but it always demands two to end it — Iran’s willingness to continue battling both Israeli and US forces regardless of losses, again, was a foreseeable consequence by America’s intelligence agencies, assuming anyone was listening to the experts. Trump and Hegseth are viewing time as though they are looking at their watches, Iran’s leadership is looking at a calendar. Time is on the side of Tehran.
As every sailor knows, if you fail to chart a course, all winds are foul — Mr. Trump, Mr. Hegseth and Mr. Rubio can’t seem to agree on the conflict’s objectives. Unconditional surrender, for example, cannot be achieved by air power. Nor can air power alone compel the regime to give up its nuclear ambitions. Better makeup and camera angles won’t result in successful Pentagon war-fighting strategies. I would only remind all concerned that America won every battle in Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq. All three conflicts ended in strategic defeats. The White House selected objectives in these wars were — like what we are seeing today with Iran — amorphous.
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The enemy always gets a vote — Even though America and Israel possess overwhelming military might, that alone cannot force capitulation. The Iranians have successfully shut the Strait of Hormuz; maintained attacks on the affiliated Gulf States; struck targets in Israel; appointed replacements for their dead military and political-religious leadership; encouraged proxies to join the battle — Hezbollah in Lebanon; and have sworn to continue the fight. All these actions and many more were perfectly predictable by American intelligence agencies, which is why past US chief executives wisely chose to avoid utilizing the military option.
Finally, a national war fighting strategy that lacks an achievable end state is no strategy at all — Mr. Hegseth, like his failed predecessors McNamara and Rumsfeld, will eventually learn some lessons the hard way, but lots of blood, treasure, and American prestige is being squandered in the meantime. At the estimated current cost of one billion dollars a day, and without a serious reconsideration of objectives, including a defined feasible end state, the war with Iran may already be a strategic loss.
The only current winner I can see is Israel, although both China and Russia will become longer term beneficiaries.
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** A different version of this commentary first appeared in The Steady State on Substack and Medium.
Founded in 2016, The Steady State is a nonprofit 501(c)(4) organization of more than 360 former senior national security professionals. Our membership includes former officials from the CIA, FBI, Department of State, Department of Defense, and Department of Homeland Security. Drawing on deep expertise across national security disciplines, including intelligence, diplomacy, military affairs, and law, we advocate for constitutional democracy, the rule of law, and the preservation of America’s national security institutions.
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