The Forgotten Wars: East Africa’s Ongoing Conflicts and Global Implications

The world is experiencing renewed wars and conflicts, along with alignments of factions and alliances not seen since the height of the Cold War. In one particular region, East Africa, the ongoing wars are some of the deadliest in the 21st century.

Ethiopia, Sudan, and Somalia are witnessing horrifying conflicts along with South Sudan, Kenya, and the breakaway region of Somaliland, in which the latter three also have powder kegs that could explode at any minute.

Various Ethiopian Wars

Ethiopia, one of the oldest countries on earth with an extremely rich history, is also intertwined with tragedies such as internal disputes, numerous repelled invasions, and famines.

In 2021, Ethiopia suffered its most brutal war since WWII when the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) went to war against the federal government led by Abiy Ahmed, a Nobel Peace Prize recipient. Initially, the TPLF gained major victories due to catching the Ethiopian army off guard; however, Addis Ababa soon led a scorched earth campaign enshrined in controversial actions and condemnation.

Abiy Ahmed’s government, along with Eritrea, would lead a major blockade upon the Tigray region, leading to widespread famine and insurmountable civilian casualties. Along the war front, numerous men from the Amhara and Tigray regions would be killed, and the war’s estimates could be around 600,000 dead combined.

In 2023, tensions in the Amhara region became a powder keg as the people of the Amhara region have been persecuted by extremist groups under the neglect of the federal government. Abiy’s government would interfere with the church, leading to more heightened tensions.

Akin to the Tigray War, the federal government’s assault on the Amhara region is also bringing international scrutiny. Still, due to Addis Ababa’s strict media blackouts, much of the world does not know the scale of fighting or violence against Amhara Fano fighters and supporters.

Sudan Civil War

The current Sudanese Civil War is becoming one of the most brutal conflicts today. Taking place on the backdrop of two rival generals from Omar Al-Bashir’s former junta, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a brutal Islamist militia, looks to upend the current military-led internationally recognized government of Khartoum.

The RSF is backed by Russia’s Wagner Group, the notorious paramilitary organization that makes much of its income from illicit black-market operations. Using Sudanese slave labor for mining (witnessed by locals and NGOs) under the watchful eyes of the RSF, Wagner is making hundreds of millions for the Kremlin during the civil war.

Sudan’s civil war is quietly becoming a second front of the Russian invasion of Ukraine as Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR) is backing Khartoum against the RSF. Attempting to stop Russia’s income from illicit trade, Ukrainian special forces are hunting down Wagner mercenaries alongside the Sudanese army.

Janjaweed militias are also committing gruesome massacres against non-Muslims, and countries such as Russia and the UAE are coming under criticism for fueling the civil war, which could last for the next several years. The death toll so far is estimated to be around 150,000 and counting every day.

Somalia’s Security Collapse

Somalia, which has struggled with numerous military juntas and instability, continues to falter in stabilizing the country in the backdrop of the civil war that has been continuous since the late 1980s.

During the numerous phases of the Somali Civil War, United Nations support, foreign intervention, and a plethora of NGOs and governments have attempted to stabilize the country. Nevertheless, Somalia has seen famine, piracy, lack of government, and the seizure of major cities by Islamist militant groups.

Al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda’s branch in Somalia, is going through a militant revival due to the political turmoil in Mogadishu. ISIS is also active in Somalia as well, and both extremist organizations control 1/3rd of Somali territories, including urban centers.

The Somali government has requested more bilateral military cooperation with the United States, including occasional drone strikes and special forces intervention. Still, these actions may not be enough to quell the Islamist insurgency.

Somalia also faces a major separatist movement with Somaliland and a brewing conflict with Ethiopia in which Addis Ababa is looking for direct access to the Red Sea. The overall conflict in Somalia over the past few decades has seen close to a million deaths between war and famine.

A Warning for the Future

East Africa’s ongoing wars and perpetual conflicts already have wider implications beyond the region. The wars are leading to political turmoil and powder kegs in which various extremist organizations now hold large swaths of territory, such as the RSF in Sudan and Al-Shabaab in Somalia.

Sudan’s Civil War is already intertwined with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the UAE, Turkey, and Iran back the federal government crackdown in Ethiopia. Somalia requested American assistance to help quell an insurgency, and the Somaliland-Ethiopian pact could ignited a new war.

West Africa is also seeing a myriad of conflicts throughout several countries as the ‘coup belt’ states are forming a Russian-backed confederation that threatens Nigeria and other nations. Along with East Africa, there is also a major Islamist insurgency going on in West Africa that has killed tens of thousands.

Burkina Faso is the most affected by numerous coups and the Islamist insurgency as most of the country’s territory is firmly under extremist control, and the Wagner Group is very much involved with the coup belt akin to Sudan’s war.

The prospect of mass migration coming from East Africa also remains as Ethiopian refugees have faced discrimination and death fleeing to Yemen and Saudi Arabia. Europe is also dealing with the backdrop of migration from West Africa, exacerbating the debate over possibly closing off quotas in the European Union.

East Africa’s regional conflicts could intertwine if another world war were to break out akin to Eastern Europe and Eastern Asia; major players are aligning to interests in Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan, and even Kenya. Not talked about as much in mainstream media, MSM should cover East Africa more, as, eventually, our national interests could intertwine with theirs.

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Disclaimer: SOFREP utilizes AI for image generation and article research. Occasionally, it’s like handing a chimpanzee the keys to your liquor cabinet. It’s not always perfect and if a mistake is made, we own up to it full stop. In a world where information comes at us in tidal waves, it is an important tool that helps us sift through the brass for live rounds.