Could Resource Wars Over Water Become Frequent in the Future?

Water is a primary natural resource that the human race cannot live without. Nations worldwide use water for irrigation, agriculture, energy, and science to feed the growing global population.

The rise in population across several countries makes the demand for natural resources such as water even greater. With climate change becoming more frequent, access to water becomes a top priority worldwide.

Countries such as Ethiopia, Egypt, Somalia, Iran, and Afghanistan are growingly becoming intertwined with various conflicts over access to water—making wars much more likely in the future.

Ethiopia and Egypt

Ethiopia and Egypt, two of the oldest countries on the African continent, currently have some of the fastest-rising populations on earth. Both countries rely on the Blue Nile River to sustain their respective economies.

Egypt, which centers the country’s identity and history on intertwining with the Nile River, conflicts with Ethiopia’s plans towards the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam started construction in 2011, with the first filling of water into the reservoir from the Blue Nile in July 2020, and the dam produced electricity in February 2022. Egypt has strongly objected to and condemned Addis Ababa’s construction of the dam as Cairo, which is undergoing a significant economic crisis, states they need the upstream river to feed their rapidly growing younger population.

The Nile, which accounts for over 90% of Egypt’s water supply, is the country’s lifeline. Nonetheless, Ethiopia, historically underdeveloped, is also relying on the GERD project to lift tens of millions of Ethiopians out of poverty.

Egypt, through various regimes, has threatened to bomb the damn with fighter jets, and the United Nations and the United States are attempting to mediate between both countries to prevent a war. Nevertheless, the recent breakdown in talks in December 2023 paints an ominous picture between Addis Ababa and Cairo.

Ethiopia and Somalia

East Africa has a turbulent history through millennia of various disputes of religious, ethnic, and geographic conflicts. Ethiopia enjoyed relative stability up until the overthrow of the monarchy, which has led to a series of brutal conflicts against Eritrea and internal wars in Tigray and the Amhara region, with ongoing genocidal actions.

Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, is enshrined in controversy. A Nobel Peace Prize recipient, PM Ahmed has the blood of hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians on his hands, and his cabinet has exacerbated ethnic tensions, particularly against the Amharas and Tigrayans.

Nevertheless, Abiy Ahmed has a cult of personality and is using his position to modernize the Ethiopian economy. With a rapidly growing population in the country, Ahmed is looking for permanent sea access due to fears that Ethiopia will be at the mercy of its surrounding neighbors for imports and exports.

Initially mapping a peace deal with Eritrea over the border, Abiy has quietly grown tensions with the former. Wanting port access, Abiy is now trying to maneuver away from a potential war with Eritrea by recognizing Somaliland, the breakaway region of Somalia.

Through realpolitik, Ahmed is recognizing Somaliland to gain permanent port access for his neighboring country, finally giving Ethiopia access to the sea it hasn’t had since the Cold War era.

The move could bring potential war in East Africa, as Somalia, the historical rival of Ethiopia, sees the move as a ‘red line.’ Likewise, Ethiopia still has brewing tensions with Egypt over the Nile, intertwining some of Africa’s most significant countries into a regional conflict.

Iran and the Taliban

The Islamic Republic of Iran and the Taliban of Afghanistan are two theocratic governments that enact the strictest forms of Islam upon their beleaguered populations, respectively.

Despite ruling countries with strict Sharia law, both the Taliban and the Islamic Republic are vastly different and often in conflict due to sectarian and religious differences. Pre-US invasion of Afghanistan, the Taliban and Iranian border guards would frequently clash, leading to the deaths of numerous civilians.

An arid region, valleys in Southwest Asia are becoming intertwined with conflict, particularly over water between the Taliban and Iran. In the late 1800s, Afghanistan and Iran had water disputes, but tensions were exacerbated as theocracies took over both nations.

Conflicts over water allocations over the Helmand River remain one of the center points of hostile tensions between both nations, especially as a formal treaty was never ratified.

The Taliban, supplemented by Pakistani intelligence, which is also in conflict with Iran, also has a plethora of American military equipment left over from the 2021 withdrawal. Iran, though with a competent military, continues to face domestic pushback for the government’s theocratic actions, which has left gaps in security.

May 2023 saw short-term clashes that are still unresolved, and fears of a renewed conflict over water allocations continue to become a reality between Mullah-controlled Iran and Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.

Growing populations from developing nations will continue to be a flashpoint of conflict, particularly over water, for the foreseeable future. Various countries across Africa and Asia, such as Egypt, Ethiopia, Somalia, Iran, Afghanistan, and others, could very much become intertwined with wars over water in our lifetime.