The ISIS and Al-Qaeda terrorist groups have suffered significant setbacks due to global military operations in the Middle East, Southwest Asia, Southeast Asia, and Northern Africa. However, the Islamist militant groups are facing a resurgence of activities, particularly due to the vacuum left behind by rising military juntas.
Military juntas in Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Niger, backed by Russian paramilitary and intelligence services, have become negligent toward counterterrorism, and growing attacks by various extremist organizations are further deteriorating the continent enough to turn several countries into a new haven for the militants.
Islamist Insurgency Background
Against the backdrop of the Global War on Terror, various extremist organizations pledged allegiance to Osama Bin Laden and his global jihadist group, al-Qaeda. Branching out and expanding after US-led wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, militant groups who pledged allegiance to Bin Laden took a foothold in North, East, and Central Africa.
The main al-Qaeda offshoot in North Africa, AQIM, would be embroiled in decades of fighting against various African countries and a multinational coalition led by France in Mali for nearly a decade. Supplementing France, America would build a major air base in Niger to gather intelligence and conduct drone strikes against various militant groups.
Later, at ISIS’ height of terror, the group would have multiple branches in North and West Africa, leading a deadly insurgency against various unstable governments.
Rise of the Juntas and Global Consequences
Due to localized militaries not having the experience or prowess as the French and Americans, African countries would gradually hire the Russian PMC, Wagner, to help train their forces and help fight the Islamist insurgency. Unfortunately for the governments, Wagner would act as an extended branch of Russian interests in Africa and help prop up numerous military juntas.
The Wagner Group would gain a foothold in the Central African Republic in 2018, Mali in 2021, and Burkina Faso in 2022—ironically coinciding with various military juntas that took power. Creating a “coup belt” of nations ruled by military juntas, the mercenaries have made a major profit for the Kremlin unabated by lukewarm sanctions.
Russian hybrid warfare in Africa is also exacerbating the global migrant crisis, and akin to similar Kremlin tactics used in Eastern Europe, is becoming a major political issue in Europe.
Wagner Group and Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the GRU, would help influence the juntas to expel French forces from the region, which was not only a major blow to France’s neo-colonial ambitions in Africa but also a gift from jihadist movements.
ISIS and Al-Qaeda are Thriving Under Junta Neglect
Jihadist groups remained resilient under pressure from French-led coalitions and US drone strikes. Still, the powder keg left behind by the military juntas has allowed various groups a new freedom of movement in the Sahel.
In 2023, various African heads of state from ECOWAS, the Economic Community of West African States, warned the United Nations of how much terrorism is affecting the region. At a United Nations Security Council meeting on March 28th, 2023, Mozambique President Filipe Nyusi stated over 48% of the global terror victims in 2022 were Africans.
In the first half of 2023, there are signs of jihadist groups gaining footholds in the coup belt, as 1,800 terrorist attacks were recorded in the first six months of the year. Omar Touray, President of the ECOWAS commission, expressed concerns about the militant fallout in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, all three of which are Russian-backed military juntas.
Lack of coordination in ECOWAS is helping affiliates of ISIS and al-Qaeda as the juntas, who are suspended from membership, do not cooperate with their African counterparts., which can allow extremist groups to cross borders uninterrupted quietly.
The Wagner group, which quietly backs the juntas, is embroiled in numerous massacres against civilians in countries such as Sudan, Libya, Mali, and the Central African Republic. Extremist groups directly benefit from hardline junta rule and foreign-backed massacres as their movements gain recruits akin to the destabilization of the Iraq War.
Burkina Faso is currently a coup belt country suffering from deteriorating security. The West African nation would suffer from two military coups within a year in 2022 due to ineffective military operations against Islamist groups.
The successful military coup in Niger is one of the major developments that enabled freedom of movement amongst extreme militants. The junta ordered French and American forces to withdraw, and the counterterrorism mandate is critical to quelling Islamist insurgencies.
America’s drone base in Niger is one of the most expensive forward bases that is critical to supplementing African militaries with air support. As most African militaries are not modernized, the lack of Western support allows jihadists to regroup and recover.
The resurgence of extremist groups in West Africa intertwines with various socioeconomic and geopolitical events such as corruption, authoritarian juntas, foreign interference, and deteriorating stabilization in the Sahel. With a lack of cooperation amongst local and regional blocs, groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS could make a comeback and choose the Sahel as their new haven.
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