This article first appeared on Warrior Maven, a Military Content Group website. 

 

 

Does the US Air Force need a new long-range, stealthy, high-tech 6th-generation fighter to confront the growing mixture of threats presented by China in the Pacific theater? While the growing, multi-service, and multi-national fleet of F-35s continues to present a formidable deterrent in the region, some might wonder if the current deterrence posture in the air is insufficient to meet a fast-evolving Chinese threat in future years.

The size of the US, Korean, and Japanese fleet of F-35s is expanding exponentially, and the recently added US military bases in the Philippines and Japan could present new opportunities for the US to “forward-position” more F-35s in the Pacific. While the PLA operates a growing fleet of 5th-gen J-20 aircraft, it is land-launched and may not rival larger numbers of F-35s or an air-dominant F-22 in the Pacific.  At the moment and in the near future, the US and its allies may be well-positioned to achieve air superiority in any major engagement with China, particularly if greater numbers of F-35s continue to arrive throughout the region.  This is particularly true should the US Navy continue forward positioning F-35-armed carriers and amphibs in the Pacific. At the moment, the growing fleet of US and allied F-35s seem well positioned to counter any PLA threat in the air.

However, surging into future years, will a force of F-22s and F-35s be sufficient to counter a fast-modernizing People’s Liberation Army Air Force? The PLA has already revealed a “rendering” of its 6th-gen aircraft, and US 5th-generation aircraft might face substantial range challenges in the Pacific theater.  A just published Oct. 14 research essay by the Dept. of the Air Force’s China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI) sheds light on this question as part of a broader analysis of the kind of Pacific strategy best pursued by the US Air Force. The paper, called “Charting the Course: How the PLA’s Regional and Global Strategies Should Influence the US Air Force’s Lines of Effort,” delivers a host of recommendations regarding what might constitute an optimal US Air Force Pacific strategy.

“Aircraft like the F-22 and F-35 were built to penetrate enemy IADS and dominate the Su-series aircraft, predominant in the European theater. Informing the design of these aircraft was a mostly contiguous geographic region that provided short distances and a plethora of viable airfields where the “tyranny of distance”xxi was not a factor. Furthermore, the requirements for the F-35 were developed during a time when the Air Force had many more fighter squadrons than today,” the CASI essay writes.