Introduction
This article will review Russia’s “Istanbul Plus” peace proposal of June 13, 2024. It will discuss how President Trump can achieve his objective of an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine.
What President Trump Wants
President Trump is clear about what he wants. He wants a ceasefire in Ukraine, and he wants the killing to stop. He is the only world leader who speaks of the conflict in these terms. All others speak endlessly about “Supporting Ukraine so it can enter negotiations from a position of strength,” or “The achievement of a just and lasting peace” (where “just” means pushing Russia back to the 2014 borders), or “Isolating Russia.”
He is also clear about the prospects for success: “We will either get it quickly or we won’t get it at all.”
Those statements are a far cry from his campaign promise to settle the war within twenty-four hours. But did anyone really take that seriously?
What the Russians Have Said (and continue to say)
The Russians have been very clear about their conditions for the cessation of hostilities:
- No ceasefire at the current line of contact.
- No frozen conflict that follows a North/South Korea model.
- No NATO membership for Ukraine.
- No NATO/European troops in Ukraine.
- No strikes with Western weapons into Russia.
- Recognition of annexed regions and Crimea as Russian.
In simple terms, the Russians do not want a repeat of the Minsk agreements, which President Petro Poroshenko, Prime Minister Francois Hollande, and Prime Minister Angela Merkel all admitted publicly, in print, that they never intended to fulfill. They stated that they negotiated the Minsk Accords only to buy time for NATO to train and rearm Ukraine.
Introduction
This article will review Russia’s “Istanbul Plus” peace proposal of June 13, 2024. It will discuss how President Trump can achieve his objective of an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine.
What President Trump Wants
President Trump is clear about what he wants. He wants a ceasefire in Ukraine, and he wants the killing to stop. He is the only world leader who speaks of the conflict in these terms. All others speak endlessly about “Supporting Ukraine so it can enter negotiations from a position of strength,” or “The achievement of a just and lasting peace” (where “just” means pushing Russia back to the 2014 borders), or “Isolating Russia.”
He is also clear about the prospects for success: “We will either get it quickly or we won’t get it at all.”
Those statements are a far cry from his campaign promise to settle the war within twenty-four hours. But did anyone really take that seriously?
What the Russians Have Said (and continue to say)
The Russians have been very clear about their conditions for the cessation of hostilities:
- No ceasefire at the current line of contact.
- No frozen conflict that follows a North/South Korea model.
- No NATO membership for Ukraine.
- No NATO/European troops in Ukraine.
- No strikes with Western weapons into Russia.
- Recognition of annexed regions and Crimea as Russian.
In simple terms, the Russians do not want a repeat of the Minsk agreements, which President Petro Poroshenko, Prime Minister Francois Hollande, and Prime Minister Angela Merkel all admitted publicly, in print, that they never intended to fulfill. They stated that they negotiated the Minsk Accords only to buy time for NATO to train and rearm Ukraine.
A humiliated President Putin apologized publicly to the Russian people for allowing the Europeans and Ukrainians to play him for a fool. He promised it would not happen again.
7. There will be no Minsk III.
This means that, should negotiations begin at the current line of contact, fighting will continue. This is not unusual. The Korean War settlement was negotiated while fighting continued. The same was true for America’s withdrawal from Vietnam.
The Russians have stated that they will only accept an airtight deal.
President Putin’s Speech of June 13, 2024 – The “Istanbul Plus” Peace Offer
On June 13, 2024, President Putin delivered a speech to the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation. On June 15, the content was published on the Kremlin website and translated into English. The officers of the Foreign Ministry are expected to relay the Russian position conveyed to their contacts.
In this speech, President Putin presented a clear proposal for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and the commencement of negotiations. He also articulated what he referred to as the Russian Federation’s “principled position.” He has not wavered from this position since. The following points constitute that position:
- Ukrainian forces must be completely withdrawn from the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics and the Kherson and Zaporizhia Regions. This includes all territory within the regions’ administrative borders that existed when the Soviet Union gave the regions to Ukraine. It includes Zaporizhia City, Kherson City, and all related territory on the West Bank of the Dnieper River.
- Ukraine must formally notify Russia of its renunciation of all plans to join NATO
- As soon as Ukraine begins withdrawal of its troops and notifies Russia that it accepts points 1 and 2, an order to cease fire will be given immediately on the Russian side. Russia will guarantee the safe and unimpeded withdrawal of all Ukrainian troops and formations.
- Russia does not seek a temporary ceasefire that will allow the West an opportunity to re-arm Ukraine. It is looking for a permanent resolution to the conflict. Russia is prepared to begin negotiations immediately following commencement of the ceasefire. Russia’s negotiating position includes the following FURTHER points:
- The neutral, non-aligned status of Ukraine
- The demilitarization of Ukraine
- The elimination of Banderism from Ukraine (eradication of the Banderite ideology of the 1930s)
- All of points 5-7 were agreed in the 2022 Istanbul Agreement from which Ukraine reneged. That agreement would have seen Ukraine keep all four of the regions. For this reason, the June 13, 2024 proposal is spoken of as “Istanbul Plus.”
- The conflict was caused by NATO expansion to Russia’s western borders and while resolution of the security situation in Europe is not linked to resolution of the Ukraine conflict, it must be addressed.
However, notice that this offer already includes an important concession. It allows a ceasefire to begin before negotiations start. This concession is partially offset by the requirement that Ukrainian troops withdraw from territory that they already occupy within the administrative borders.
This concession is a clear indication that Russia has no interest in moving further than the borders of the new regions. Keep in mind that these regions are now constitutionally part of Russia, just as Texas and California are part of the United States. The west may not agree with this, but that is the view of Russia, formalized within its legal framework. This brings all four regions under the protection of Russia’s nuclear doctrine, and that cannot be ignored.
President Putin made it clear that Zelensky is illegitimate because his term expired in May, 2024, and he refused to conduct elections. To the Russians, that makes Zelensky an unsatisfactory interlocutor for negotiations and unacceptable as the signatory to a peace deal. They will not risk Zelensky’s successor annulling the peace deal because of Zelensky’s illegitimacy.
There was no deadline associated with the offer, hence it would not be correct to refer to it as an “ultimatum.” However, at the time President Putin made this offer, Russia was clearly winning on the battlefield. The implication was that the longer Ukraine delayed in accepting these terms, the more the facts on the ground would change in Russia’s favor. This situation continues today, with the Russian steamroller grinding west, and the AFU losing troops hand over fist.
Russia states that they are prepared to enter negotiations “that take into account the current reality on the ground.”
President Putin stated that while the above points were a firm offer, he did not expect Western powers or Ukraine to accept them. He was right. The Biden administration, NATO, and Ukraine rejected the offer out of hand.
President Trump has told Zelensky, “You better come to the table quick, or you won’t have a country left.”
Ukrainians and Europeans accuse President Trump of repeating Russian talking points. This writer thinks President Trump is a realist. But these different opinions don’t matter. Different people will have differing views of this offer, just as they have differing views of the state of the conflict. That’s not important; they can debate their views as much as they want. The war on the ground will play out.
Ultimately, facts on the ground cannot be ignored. At the time of writing, Russia is in the process of encircling up to 20,000 AFU troops at Sudja, in Kursk. President Trump has threatened Russia with tariffs and more sanctions if they do not relent. Given that Russia only sells the US a handful of items, and is already the most heavily sanctioned country in the world, this threat is unlikely to have an effect.
Last week, in the Oval Office, President Trump told Zelensky: “You have no cards. You have no cards. With us, you have a chance.”
Members of the US administration frequently say that they need to find out what Russia wants. These statements are somewhat disingenuous because we have understood these terms since June 13, 2024, and they do not differ materially in direction from those agreed by Ukraine at Istanbul in 2022. The only difference lies in how much territory Ukraine will have to give up. Had they held elections in 2014, they would have kept Crimea. Had they implemented Minsk, they would have kept Donetsk and Lugansk. Had they not reneged on Istanbul in 2022, they could have salvaged Donetsk and Lugansk. If they accept Istanbul Plus today, they will only surrender Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson.
This writer has never seen the Istanbul Plus offer discussed in Western mass media. It has been buried by the chorus of “Support Ukraine whatever it takes, for as long as it takes.” Since President Trump’s team has, until entering office, obtained much of its intel from the media, it is possible they were not aware of the offer. Frankly, it is astonishing how uninformed Western leaders are of the Russian position. It is as though they do not listen.
As one observer noted, “Western leaders waste time negotiating among themselves rather than listening to the Russians.”
The following observation is critical: President Trump’s team has been in place for only 45 days, and this writer believes President Trump has now become aware of the offer. If he was not aware before, it is virtually certain that he was made aware of it during his initial ninety-minute phone call with President Putin. In fact, President Putin probably assured him the offer was on the table until Russia crossed the regional borders into Ukraine proper. A sharp dealmaker would instantly detect an opening.
How President Trump Can Achieve an Immediate Ceasefire
President Trump has stated time and again that he wants a ceasefire, and he wants the killing to stop. It seems to this writer that President Trump is the only person who wants such a ceasefire.
Now let us consider President Putin’s offer of June 13, 2024.
The offer was not a final peace deal.
Rather, the offer was an articulation of preconditions, the fulfilment of which would allow peace negotiations to begin. Those negotiations would result in a final deal.
This writer believes President Trump will vigorously encourage Ukraine to accept President Putin’s offer of June 13, 2024, specifically Points 1-4. This will result in the immediate ceasefire that President Trump seeks, followed by the commencement of negotiations.
President Trump is already bringing pressure to bear on Zelensky by calling for elections, pausing delivery of military aid, and pausing the provision of ISR intel to Ukraine. Zelensky is beginning to feel the branch creak.
The Europeans, however, oppose President Trump’s efforts to mediate a peace and continue to support Zelensky’s quest for victory. By acting as spoilers, they will only prolong the conflict and cause more soldiers to die, and cost Ukraine more territory. If the Europeans spoil peace long enough, Russian tanks will roll up to the Polish border.
At the first meeting, the Russians will probably reiterate the June 13, 2024 proposal. President Trump will try to convince Zelensky to accept points 1 to 4.
All other points will be settled by negotiations using a mutually acceptable format, brokered by the United States as a mediator. The parties will probably agree to a deadline at the end of which, hostilities will recommence if a final deal has not been struck. That is the only way the Russians can be assured the Ukrainians will not drag out negotiations indefinitely while they reorganize and rearm.
Conclusion
The scenario described in this article is the only way President Trump can achieve an immediate ceasefire. It may be the only way to save what remains of Ukraine. The tragedy is that at this writing, President Trump is probably the only person looking for peace. European leaders have too much political capital invested in Zelensky and the “victory” narrative. Zelensky sees peace as a threat to his power. The Russians do not need peace because they are winning.
As President Trump likes to say, “We’ll see what happens.”
About the Author
You may reach Cameron at: cameron.curtis545@gmail.com
Cameron Curtis has spent thirty years in the financial markets as a trader and risk manager. He was on the trade floor when Saddam’s tanks rolled into Kuwait, when the air wars opened over Baghdad and Belgrade, and when the financial crisis swallowed the world. He’s studied military affairs and warfare all his adult life. His popular Breed series of military adventure thrillers are admired for combining deep expertise with propulsive action. The premises are realistic, the stories adrenaline-fueled and emotionally engaging.
Check out the books here: Cameron Curtis’s Amazon Page
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